Pregame: Illinois vs Long Island, Saturday, November 22nd, 1:00pm CT, B1G+

[Second place is 1st loser]

No, I get it. Of the 3, I think I’d agree. But you liked the post on the Petro minutes mostly opening from Mirk - so the group of 3, isn’t really what I think we’re looking at (I know it wasn’t your original post - you just responded)

Only 2 high major games with Keaton thus far, in order for us to be our best, we need him to grow, and it’s impossible he won’t have bumps. Although I honestly thought he was totally fine against tech.

I don't want this to turn into a Keaton Wagler analysis because that wasn't the point of the thread. I am willing to engage in conversation about his games vs Tech and Bama.

Texas Tech.
11 points,
7 boards,
3-9 shooting,
0 assists,
3 turnovers
0-3 3-pt shooting

Alabama:
8 points
3 boards
2-9 shooting
1 assist
0 turnovers
1-4 3pt shooting
Fouled Out

Combined:
19 points
11 boards
5-18 shooting
1 assist
3 turnovers
1-7 3pt shooting

That's rough offensive output for a guy putting in 35 minutes per game.

He's WAY too green to be judged, but man....we have some enormous games coming up. Again, I don't see, if Petrovic is healthy, how it can't be Wagler's minutes that come down.

I think he's getting 35 minutes out of pure necessity and with Petrovic coming back, it's no longer necessity.

 

[TheGMan]

But the average ignores any context.

I fully admit the season FT % is 76%. No one denies that. But the context is that these are the game by game free throw statistics.

16/24
30/34
16/23 (Texas Tech)
21/24
13/21 (Alabama)

So in the two games against good competition that were competitive, Illinois is 29/44 (65.9%) from the line and has shot below 70% in three of five games.

Statistics without context don’t mean a lot.

How does the quality of the opponent affect free throw shooting? It's far more likely that the "context" is nothing more than random variance.

 

[Barfolomew]

I was surprised to discover there are over 30 species of sharks commonly found near Lawn Guylind.
So screw the KenPom numbers -- on a scale of Sandbar Shark to Great White, I would rate tomorrow's game as a Smooth Dogfish.

Just in case, here are some tips for the Illini to avoid a shark attack, per ChatGPT:

• Avoid playing at dusk and dawn, as these are peak feeding times for many sharks. -- 1pm tip time, check
• Do not play in areas with schools of menhaden or seals. -- not sure if they sell fish and chips at SFC, but seal burgers were phased out years ago, check
• Play in groups, as sharks are less likely to mistake a group for prey. -- deep bench allowing for multiple subs at once, check
• Be aware that while shark encounters are possible, the chances of being in a car accident on the way to the game are statistically higher. -- drive carefully, team bus driver!

 

[Dan]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1991995008593854802

 

[OrangeBlue98]

How does the quality of the opponent affect free throw shooting? It's far more likely that the "context" is nothing more than random variance.

More competitive game, more nerves.

Context matters.

 

[Weatherspoon1]

I agree as Petro seems to have the gear and gift for creating for others in a way others don't . I look at it as pairing down the 1-3 rotation (120 minutes/game) to AS/Petro/Bos/Wagler and have them all near/around 30 mpg. All 4 get "starter minutes". For a guy that's not played a game in many months, Petro looked great

And as circumstances/injuries dictate....give Lee/Ben some minutes there. Ben should and deserves primary backup minutes at the 4 and even 5 when Z wants to play as soft as he does at times. I think Illini need to go zone much more than they already and plant Tomi/Z in the middle like Purdue/UConn did very well with Edey/Clingan

This deserves a hundred thumbs up

 

[Weatherspoon1]

More competitive game, more nerves.

Context matters.

Funny thing with me it was just the opposite in HS - the bigger the game/spot the calmer I got at the line. Weird

 

[jamie13197]

Petro, has a twinkle of Steve Nash in him if that is the case, gonna be a wonderful year.

 

[Rebounding Dog]

I dont see a minutes problem in the back court. 120 min between 4 guys with some left for to Lee and Jake!

 

[hoopsfan47]

My question with Petro is can he defend. He was not great at it yesterday.

He will if he wants to play. He has the foot speed... if you have that, all it takes is want to....and if that is not there then Brad wants to have him sit. We will see.

 

[jamie13197]

If we do end up with 9 men playing. I have no problem with each 1 playing 20 minutes per game. I will confidently state, Kylan will always be above 30 minutes. Everyone else who cares. They are being paid to play. Who's hot that game gets TiK!!! If they don't agree, quit and transfer.
I will close, I am happy. As long as we do not end up being Wisconsin or Iowa. Watching Badgers, a girl Scout troop is more Athletic than them. We are not that athletic any longer.

 

[OB positive]

More competitive game, more nerves.

Context matters.

Also tempo and effort can affect free throws. Like if the coach has everyone shooting free throws at the beginning of practice vs picking out someone to shoot two at the end after everyone has run there guts out doing sprints and tells them that the sprints are over if they make both.

 

[OrangeKrush1981]

I dont see a minutes problem in the back court. 120 min between 4 guys with some left for to Lee and Jake!

If there are 2 members of the backcourt (of five on the floor), there are 80 backcourt minutes available per game. If instead there are 3 backcourt players on the floor at once (of the five on the floor), then there are 120 minutes available per game.

Since small forwards are commonly considered backcourts guys these days, that means Andrej is 1 of the 3 backcourt guys. He seems likely to get 30 min/game, more or less.

Kylan will be at 30+ min/game all season, at minumum.

Keaton is, right now, the leading minutes guy, so penciling him in for 30ish seems reasonable at the moment. Though I bet by the time conference play begins in earnest after the New Year, he sees 26ish minutes/game.

If these estimates pan out (110/game for Andrej, Kylan, Keaton and Mihailo), there may be 10 min/game available in the backcourt. I think Brandon gets most of those.

 

[Rebounding Dog]

If there are 2 members of the backcourt (of five on the floor), there are 80 backcourt minutes available per game. If instead there are 3 backcourt players on the floor at once (of the five on the floor), then there are 120 minutes available per game.

Since small forwards are commonly considered backcourts guys these days, that means Andrej is 1 of the 3 backcourt guys. He seems likely to get 30 min/game, more or less.

Kylan will be at 30+ min/game all season, at minumum.

Keaton is, right now, the leading minutes guy, so penciling him in for 30ish seems reasonable at the moment. Though I bet by the time conference play begins in earnest after the New Year, he sees 26ish minutes/game.

If these estimates pan out (110/game for Andrej, Kylan, Keaton and Mihailo), there may be 10 min/game available in the backcourt. I think Brandon gets most of those.

I think Brandon gets most of those… agree!

 

[IlliniFan42]

Nate Oats to the press- "They make their free throws they probably win."

Brad Underwood to the press- "You have to learn how not to lose... OBVIOUSLY you can't go 9 of 17 in the second half from the free throw line in a game like that, just if we make free throws we win."

Hmm what did they mean by this?

 

[Fighter of the Nightman]

Pummel them, iron out some fixes and let’s go give UConn everything we’ve got.

 

[illinitiger]

Would live to have LaTulip on our coaching staff!

 

[pruman91]

I was surprised to discover there are over 30 species of sharks commonly found near Lawn Guylind.
So screw the KenPom numbers -- on a scale of Sandbar Shark to Great White, I would rate tomorrow's game as a Smooth Dogfish.

Just in case, here are some tips for the Illini to avoid a shark attack, per ChatGPT:

• Avoid playing at dusk and dawn, as these are peak feeding times for many sharks. -- 1pm tip time, check
• Do not play in areas with schools of menhaden or seals. -- not sure if they sell fish and chips at SFC, but seal burgers were phased out years ago, check
• Play in groups, as sharks are less likely to mistake a group for prey. -- deep bench allowing for multiple subs at once, check
• Be aware that while shark encounters are possible, the chances of being in a car accident on the way to the game are statistically higher. -- drive carefully, team bus driver!

Your thoughts are profound but you ignore the most dreaded shark of all....the feared Land Shark with his horrific Bait and switch " CandyGram " ...

Truly a terror to all......JMHO...

 

[Brosky]

I don't know why you'd question his D. As I posted earlier, I watched him exclusively when Bama had the ball. Moved his feet properly, kept his man in front, and fought his way well thru screens. He's mature and strong enough to do that. IMO, we need to stop questioning players' defense until we get well into December. Then we MAY have enough sample size to reach conclusions. So I implore all posters to stop questioning Petro's D, at least for now. Or any of our players for that matter.

 

[Vinegarben]

Just a note for those that said PURDUE doesn't look very good. They slaughtered Texas Tech by 30 last night and held Toppin to 15 points. Boilers are definitely the team to beat in the BIG. They can shoot the ball which is something the Illini have not demonstrated against the better competition.

 

[jamie13197]

No thank you.

 

[NarrowJ]

Hmm what did they mean by this?

They mean exactly what they’re saying, if Illinois makes their free throws they win the game. I think we’ve all been in agreement with this.

Though many have also said that there are a bunch of other reasons Illinois lost the game. Defense, rebounding, even some of the offense (turnovers) could’ve been a lot better. And those errors tend to be far more costly.

We are shooting 2 percentage points higher than Purdue. Are you worried about Purdue now as well? Think their season is doomed? No, that’s crazy. That team does enough other things at a very high level that they don’t just lose a game because they missed several free throws, which in a season of nearly 40 games is completely inevitable that will happen a few times. They shot poorly from the line last night and won by 30.

You should give the MLT game recap a watch on YouTube. Around the 15 minute mark he will also tell you how concerned he is about free throw shooting from a team that’s currently at 76% on the season.

Here are the top 15 teams this season and their FT percentages:

1. Purdue 73.8
2. Houston 79.6
3. UConn 69.0
4. Arizona 77.3
5. Duke 74.2
6. Louisville 75.8
7. Michigan 75.0
8. Illinois 75.8
9. BYU 76.9
10. Florida 68.3
11. Alabama 73.2
12. Kentucky 73.0
13. Gonzaga 72.0
14. St Johns 69.4
15. Texas Tech 69.7

We're one of the top FT shooting teams in that list...

 

[Mistakenj]

They mean exactly what they’re saying, if Illinois makes their free throws they win the game. I think we’ve all been in agreement with this.

Though many have also said that there are a bunch of other reasons Illinois lost the game. Defense, rebounding, even some of the offense (turnovers) could’ve been a lot better. And those errors tend to be far more costly.

We are shooting 2 percentage points higher than Purdue. Are you worried about Purdue now as well? Think their season is doomed? No, that’s crazy. That team does enough other things at a very high level that they don’t just lose a game because they missed several free throws, which in a season of nearly 40 games is completely inevitable that will happen a few times. They shot poorly from the line last night and won by 30.

You should give the MLT game recap a watch on YouTube. Around the 15 minute mark he will also tell you how concerned he is about free throw shooting from a team that’s currently at 76% on the season.

Here are the top 15 teams this season and their FT percentages:

1. Purdue 73.8
2. Houston 79.6
3. UConn 69.0
4. Arizona 77.3
5. Duke 74.2
6. Louisville 75.8
7. Michigan 75.0
8. Illinois 75.8
9. BYU 76.9
10. Florida 68.3
11. Alabama 73.2
12. Kentucky 73.0
13. Gonzaga 72.0
14. St Johns 69.4
15. Texas Tech 69.7

We're one of the top FT shooting teams in that list...

I think the concern is Andrej is one of our main slashers and he’s getting more tick and more free throws and he’s not a good FT shooter; so that number will presumably come down

 

[NarrowJ]

I think the concern is Andrej is one of our main slashers and he’s getting more tick and more free throws and he’s not a good FT shooter; so that number will presumably come down

He shot 82% at Cal on 5 attempts per game lmao “not a good ft shooter” he is one of our best ft shooters

 

[Highlander]

I think the concern is Andrej is one of our main slashers and he’s getting more tick and more free throws and he’s not a good FT shooter; so that number will presumably come down

The crazy thing with Andrej is he was 135/165 or 82% from the line for the season last year at Cal while starting 28/29 games (33.5 minutes/game). The prior season at Stanford he shot 53% from the line averaging ~22 minutes/game. We need last year's Andrej to show up for the rest of this season.

Edit: NarrowJ beat me to it...