Illinois 87, UT Rio Grande Valley 73 Postgame

[NarrowJ]

Note that this team went 15-19, so...

So... what, exactly? Are we thinking this team will win 15-ish games?

2005 North Carolina team lost their first game of the year (at home) to Santa Clara by 11 points. How poorly do you suppose that team ended the season?

But lets think about more contemporary examples:

2025 Florida only won by 15 vs South Florida in their 1st game. Want to guess how they ended their season?
2024 UConn only won by 20 vs New Hampshire in preconf and lost by 15 to a bad Seton Hall team. Wonder how crappy their season was?
2023 UConn had an early season stinker vs Buffalo U and lost to another bad Seton Hall team. Did that team just completely implode?
2022 Kansas lost to Dayton in preconf, only beat Iona by 13, SF Austin by 8, George Mason by 9. That had to be a terrible team, eh?

I'll stop there so that this isn't a long post.

Last night's game was never in doubt. They hit a meaningless three at the end as well. I think this team will be fine.

 

[Second place is 1st loser]

Underwood’s realizes that you need to have athletic defensive players on the floor with Petrovic to cover for him on that end and we don’t any other than Boswell. Petrovic was also talking back to Coach Alexander last night as alluded to by Werner.

If you play Petrovic more, it means less minutes for Wagler/Boswell and Underwood simply isn’t gonna go with an All Offense No Defense lineup ever

He may need to consider it as the year goes on because under no circumstances will this front court allow for this to be a good defensive team.

Right now, we're average, but closer to sub par. I don't see the athletic ability on that interior to top out above average.

Did you see that Alabama vs Gonzaga game last night? Gonzaga, like Purdue, completely shut the water off in the paint and pulled away to win fairly comfortably.

We couldn't get a stop versus Bama late in the game. They got into the paint at will and it either led to a layup, a bunny for a big or a kick out three to an open shooter. Our lack of any sort of interior presence causes this. Heck, last night we couldn't keep bigs from the likes of UTRGV from turning the corner on the baseline, which again led to layups or wide open threes.

That was a long winded(way too long) post with the summary being that we're going to struggle to keep good teams out of the mid 80's, regardless of the rotation. We are going to HAVE to live in the 85-90 PPG average to consistently win. We can't go on extended scoring droughts and expect to win. We went 8 minutes versus Alabama without scoring and that was what turned the game sideways. Would Petrovic's creativity have stemmed that type of a scoring drought?

I don't think that BU has the tools on the roster to be choosey on how he plans to outscore his opponents. I just don't think that the personnel is there to lean on the defense. The only way to offset athleticism and quickness deficits is to play zone and be really, really sound fundamentally. That's not something that you just implement and roll with it. A really solid zone takes a full year, if not two to really master. The communication has to be next level. We went to it yesterday and it was a disaster. One defender allowed it to collapse.

I get him loving Wagler's size and comfortability with moving him around. I just think that the front court issues are too much to overcome to lose ANY offensive production.

I guess we'll see. This was a flaw that most saw coming. No depth in the backcourt, no athleticism or physicality in the front court, but a high octane offense to try and balance it out.

That's exactly what's come to fruition and though it's only been 5 games....it's hard to imagine seeing these hurdles cleared.

 

[Second place is 1st loser]

After re-watching the UTRGV game, I will not say the Illini played a terrible game. The Vaqueros deserve a lot of credit for their effort on both ends. What the did for almost 40 minutes was hit tough, mostly contested, quick shots. 42% from the arc was not simply shooting wide open threes, of which there were very few, but quick, contested threes that just kept finding the bottom of the net. The Illini had far more uncontested threes, hit some, but missed too many. For some reason, KB was not very aggressive on offense while Wagler had a tough shooting night but did some little things well. This was the type of game that, in some previous years, would see the Illini chasing a 3-5 pt. deficit into the final 5 minutes when a bounce, a call, or a lip out could spell doom. But that did not happen.

Sure, there were many lessons to learn, but that is why this game was played. It was a good thing to get this win on a tough night of Illini play....but it was a win.

What was noticeable was that UTRGV quickness exposed problems that this team may not be able to fix. Teams like Purdie or UConn have the patience and expertise to work to get the math-ups they want....quick guards on a big vic ...and exploit their advantage. As long as our guys are willing to listen and work hard doing what is asked, those can...maybe....be held to a minimum. But a quick guard who can finish or pull up and hit jumpers will always be a challenge for Tomi, David, or Z.

The point is, this semi-comfortable 14 point win was not as bad of a thing as we paint it to be....especially if this group of young Illini can hold their turkey consumption to a reasonable level and come back like the Fighting Illini for 40 minutes of their best effort on Friday. We will soon know.

THIS.

 

[RollChief]

So... what, exactly? Are we thinking this team will win 15-ish games?

2005 North Carolina team lost their first game of the year (at home) to Santa Clara by 11 points. How poorly do you suppose that team ended the season?

But lets think about more contemporary examples:

2025 Florida only won by 15 vs South Florida in their 1st game. Want to guess how they ended their season?
2024 UConn only won by 20 vs New Hampshire in preconf and lost by 15 to a bad Seton Hall team. Wonder how crappy their season was?
2023 UConn had an early season stinker vs Buffalo U and lost to another bad Seton Hall team. Did that team just completely implode?
2022 Kansas lost to Dayton in preconf, only beat Iona by 13, SF Austin by 8, George Mason by 9. That had to be a terrible team, eh?

I'll stop there so that this isn't a long post.

Last night's game was never in doubt. They hit a meaningless three at the end as well. I think this team will be fine.

Week of 11/17 Games Thread

I hope the UC is full of orange. David will be playing against the best team and quickness to this point in his career. Go Illini. Beat them we will be in the top five.

www.illinoisloyalty.com

Since I spent some time and mental horsepower on this analysis, I'll probably recycle it a few times, but right now we're on the upper end of net efficiency when compared to National Champions of the past, and it is very common for great teams to have an early-season lull before a mid- to late-season peak.

 

[EmeraldCityIllini]

I remember a really good, B1G title winning, Illini team having a much scarier dogfight with this Rio Grande program.

These UIC and Chicago state groce reminders are not nearly the same IMO.

One thing that drives me nuts though watching it again. We have a lot of good defensive possessions and then the shot clock winds down, and we don’t crowd the shooter. Don’t just let them tee it up. If anything, overplay and force them into a running 2 over our bigs who don’t like to leave the paint

 

[NarrowJ]

Week of 11/17 Games Thread

I hope the UC is full of orange. David will be playing against the best team and quickness to this point in his career. Go Illini. Beat them we will be in the top five.

www.illinoisloyalty.com

Since I spent some time and mental horsepower on this analysis, I'll probably recycle it a few times, but right now we're on the upper end of net efficiency when compared to National Champions of the past, and it is very common for great teams to have an early-season lull before a mid- to late-season peak.

Yes, I do remember this epic post! I can see we are currently in a downward trend with:

1. A loss to Alabama
2. A lazy, uninspired effort vs UTRGV
3. Our marquee win, Texas Tech, is also on a downtrend.

Texas Tech losing so badly to Purdue had to have really hurt them, numbers-wise, as they've handled business otherwise... Wake took #7 Michigan to OT so no issues with that being a close game, etc.

 

[aaeismacgychel]

Unfortunately, I can't disagree with that. We're going to have to add Mirkovic to that group. They can't cut off the baseline drives and can't recover guarding the perimeter.

There are only a couple of ways to get around the issue and that's for BU to change philosophy, which is going to create some unhappy campers because playing time is going to shrink.

To me, Boswell, Stojakovic and Petrovic have to be on the floor at the same time. Everything just runs more smoothly. Wagler got a ton of minutes early, but it was due to injury. He's going to be critical, but they have to take things off his plate right now. Have him focus playing a lock down, defense/rebounding first role. It's Ty's role, but it's what we're missing. He's not making good decisions right now. He's a freshman. Hell grow.

Z.....there's a reason Cal wasn't bending over backwards to keep him and he got very few minutes. He has no interest in physicality and if you're going to play finesse, you had better be good at it. Right now, he's on the perimeter, completely wasting his size.

Tomi....he's coming off injury, but has looked terrible. Hopefully, that turns around.

Mirkovic....he's got the heart and desire, he's just got bricks for feet.

Ben....he's maddening shooting the ball, but he's the best interior defender in the roster right now.

Ty....we could use you.

I'm not sure how all of this is going to work out, but right now, we suck defensively and we can all look at the guys who are hurting the unit.

There are multiple posts like this from different people, but I'll respond to this one. I think people here are overanalyzing rather miniscule amounts of early season gameplay of a team that hasn't been healthy to extrapolate grandiose narratives that align with their own worries and concerns.

One such example is Big Z. You and several others are extremely down on him, primarily because you're looking at individual poor moments and where you're grading him on his ability to play as a traditional center and guard 1 thru 5, which just isn't his forte or how he should be utilized. But the thought that he's borderline unplayable on defense isn't backed up by facts or even eye test when you consider how he performs in help defense and zone. There have been long stretches this year where his mere presence has singlehandedly disrupted an opponent's game. In fact his play in the 1st half on Toppin against Texas Tech was the primary reason Toppin struggled mightily that half and we had a double digit lead. And the very very early stats back that up.

While I hate using this data because it's so early in the season and people tend to utilize it incorrectly but at this time, when Big Z is on the court, Illinois gives up 0.845 pts per possession, lowest on the roster. Adjusted by opponent his defense is considered 4.7pts per 100 better than the average NCAA defender. That's best on the team and Top 40 for players in the nation. His block rate is also 13th in the nation right now which in the majority of cases is effectively the same as a forced turnover due to leading to transition. And on top of that he also shoots over 39% from 3 and 92% from 2. That along with his decent turnover rate corresponds to an offensive efficiency of 1.384ppp on 14.2% usage. To say those are extremely good numbers is an understatement.

Point is, I'm not trying to say he hasn't had poor defensive possessions and showed some bad fundamentals, but what I am saying is that anyone who thinks he hasn't contributed thus far because of those errors is extraordinarily mistaken.

I could do a breakdown of our other players to explain why all is not lost and this game really isn't the harbinger of complete doom that people think it is, but this post is too long already. I just think people really need to take a really deep breathe and let the team grow and build chemistry at this point rather than the this or that player is unplayable argument.

 

[Zorak]

I'm tired of excuses. I'm tired of equivocation. If this team is actually as good as we all thought, they need to play like it. They didn't against Alabama, and they didn't last night.

 

[Illini in Italy]

There are multiple posts like this from different people, but I'll respond to this one. I think people here are overanalyzing rather miniscule amounts of early season gameplay of a team that hasn't been healthy to extrapolate grandiose narratives that align with their own worries and concerns.

One such example is Big Z. You and several others are extremely down on him, primarily because you're looking at individual poor moments and where you're grading him on his ability to play as a traditional center and guard 1 thru 5, which just isn't his forte or how he should be utilized. But the thought that he's borderline unplayable on defense isn't backed up by facts or even eye test when you consider how he performs in help defense and zone. There have been long stretches this year where his mere presence has singlehandedly disrupted an opponent's game. In fact his play in the 1st half on Toppin against Texas Tech was the primary reason Toppin struggled mightily that half and we had a double digit lead. And the very very early stats back that up.

While I hate using this data because it's so early in the season and people tend to utilize it incorrectly but at this time, when Big Z is on the court, Illinois gives up 0.845 pts per possession, lowest on the roster. Adjusted by opponent his defense is considered 4.7pts per 100 better than the average NCAA defender. That's best on the team and Top 40 for players in the nation. His block rate is also 13th in the nation right now which in the majority of cases is effectively the same as a forced turnover due to leading to transition. And on top of that he also shoots over 39% from 3 and 92% from 2. That along with his decent turnover rate corresponds to an offensive efficiency of 1.384ppp on 14.2% usage. To say those are extremely good numbers is an understatement.

Point is, I'm not trying to say he hasn't had poor defensive possessions and showed some bad fundamentals, but what I am saying is that anyone who thinks he hasn't contributed thus far because of those errors is extraordinarily mistaken.

I could do a breakdown of our other players to explain why all is not lost and this game really isn't the harbinger of complete doom that people think it is, but this post is too long already. I just think people really need to take a really deep breathe and let the team grow and build chemistry at this point rather than the this or that player is unplayable argument.

 

[LocalChief505]

I'm tired of excuses. I'm tired of equivocation. If this team is actually as good as we all thought, they need to play like it. They didn't against Alabama, and they didn't last night.

Thank God. I thought I was the only one.

 

[Grandpa]

It is ics. An apostrophe is NEVER added to make a name plural.

Plural and Possessive Names: A Guide

Why is it Socrates' deathbed but Dickens's novels?

www.merriam-webster.com

 

[FlyinIllini1]

Mihailo and KJ, different sizes and ages, yet similar style of play. KJ is extremely shifty and smart, Mihailo is very smooth and smart. I am enjoying the style of basketball BU has this going for the last few years.

I hear what you’re saying, and I do agree to an extent. The difference for me is that watching KJ over the course of a full season was essentially a slow burn decline. As the competition ramped up, he became more and more exposed….. The turnovers were brutal, the defensive gaps were well-known, and the athletic mismatch became impossible to hide. His decision-making was Jekyll-and-Hyde, and by the end it genuinely felt like we functioned better when he wasn’t on the floor.

And that’s what makes this so frustrating. He had an incredibly long leash from Underwood all year. Meanwhile Petrovic, who’s a smoother handler, better shooter, better downhill threat, better passer, and honestly just makes smarter reads, seems to get benched the moment anything goes sideways. It feels like Underwood is hunting for reasons not to play him instead of giving him room to grow.

 

[Rebounding Dog]

Thank God. I thought I was the only one.

Well there is you and that guy that does not understand that playing “as good as we all thought” means we can do so without being fully heathy! I can not believe any one would post such nonsense … let alone someone would actually agree!
Give it a few weeks… we have guys returning to the line up that have not been in full practices… the team is finding how to work in this system.
No one is making excuses… the reality is that we are not yet at a point where we are able to see us playing “ as good as we all thought”
eye roll… eye roll… eye roll

 

[Ga65]

He’s been working his way back from a bad hamstring injury. He’s got some spunk but I really don’t think he’s upset with the coaches or anything like that. I don’t think you can say anything specific about his playing time yet either considering he isn’t fully healthy.

Should we be saying the same thing about Tomi only getting 22 mins yesterday? No. He’s not 100%.

Tomi is not playing up to the level we expected and I think that is major for both the defense and rebounding. My biggest concern is the inconsistent three point shooting. In our tough games we will need it. Most games we can score at the rim with multiple players but great rim protectors will negate that.

 

[Illinirog70]

I hear what you’re saying, and I do agree to an extent. The difference for me is that watching KJ over the course of a full season was essentially a slow burn decline. As the competition ramped up, he became more and more exposed….. The turnovers were brutal, the defensive gaps were well-known, and the athletic mismatch became impossible to hide. His decision-making was Jekyll-and-Hyde, and by the end it genuinely felt like we functioned better when he wasn’t on the floor.

And that’s what makes this so frustrating. He had an incredibly long leash from Underwood all year. Meanwhile Petrovic, who’s a smoother handler, better shooter, better downhill threat, better passer, and honestly just makes smarter reads, seems to get benched the moment anything goes sideways. It feels like Underwood is hunting for reasons not to play him instead of giving him room to grow.

Maybe the issue with Petrovic is one of conditioning, as he's just started practicing and playing only recently.
Or maybe....defense? Underwood will eventually turn the keys to the team over to him.

 

[RollChief]

I hear what you’re saying, and I do agree to an extent. The difference for me is that watching KJ over the course of a full season was essentially a slow burn decline. As the competition ramped up, he became more and more exposed….. The turnovers were brutal, the defensive gaps were well-known, and the athletic mismatch became impossible to hide. His decision-making was Jekyll-and-Hyde, and by the end it genuinely felt like we functioned better when he wasn’t on the floor.

And that’s what makes this so frustrating. He had an incredibly long leash from Underwood all year. Meanwhile Petrovic, who’s a smoother handler, better shooter, better downhill threat, better passer, and honestly just makes smarter reads, seems to get benched the moment anything goes sideways. It feels like Underwood is hunting for reasons not to play him instead of giving him room to grow.

This has been questioned a few times and honestly I feel like BU has explained it pretty clearly. The difference between MP and KJ in terms of leash and playing time is size. One of BU's themes and keys to victory over the past few years has been positional size and rebounding.

Average height rank has been 8th, 13th, and 2nd respectively for 2024, 2025, and 2026 so far, respectively. The shortest person in the starting lineup in 2024 was TSJ at 6'6". The only person to start consistently shorter than that in 3 seasons has been Kylan Boswell who is a full-on linebacker who I would be shocked is any less than 6'3". MP MAY BE 6'1".

For MP to get consistent minutes he has to get good (serviceable) at rebounding and defense or has to be so outstanding on offense that it outweighs any defense/rebounding deficiency. The latter may be the case if he can play like he's been playing at high volume. 19 points, 9 assists and 4 rebounds in 37 minutes of play is pretty good. The last thing I'll say is I'm almost certain he's still dealing with some injury, he had a pretty big brace on in between playing on Monday.

 

[Illinois_in_MD]

Tomi is not playing up to the level we expected and I think that is major for both the defense and rebounding. My biggest concern is the inconsistent three point shooting. In our tough games we will need it. Most games we can score at the rim with multiple players but great rim protectors will negate that.

Completely agree. Most of the comments I see regarding our perimeter shooting are about how we're "chucking" too many 3's. And yes, there were a handful of times where we settled for 3's early in the shot clock instead of trying to get in the paint. But good teams need to be able to generate open 3's and hit them at decent level, to keep defenses honest. I'd be willing excuse Monday night's poor shooting as a fluke if it wasn't for the fact that we saw a whole season of these shooting woes last year.

 

[Se Il Illini]

Could be, but in reality no one likes sitting on the bench.

Exactly. And that is why Bobby Knight said the bench was the greatest motivator of all.

 

[RollChief]

This has been questioned a few times and honestly I feel like BU has explained it pretty clearly. The difference between MP and KJ in terms of leash and playing time is size. One of BU's themes and keys to victory over the past few years has been positional size and rebounding.

Average height rank has been 8th, 13th, and 2nd respectively for 2024, 2025, and 2026 so far, respectively. The shortest person in the starting lineup in 2024 was TSJ at 6'6". The only person to start consistently shorter than that in 3 seasons has been Kylan Boswell who is a full-on linebacker who I would be shocked is any less than 6'3". MP MAY BE 6'1".

For MP to get consistent minutes he has to get good (serviceable) at rebounding and defense or has to be so outstanding on offense that it outweighs any defense/rebounding deficiency. The latter may be the case if he can play like he's been playing at high volume. 19 points, 9 assists and 4 rebounds in 37 minutes of play is pretty good. The last thing I'll say is I'm almost certain he's still dealing with some injury, he had a pretty big brace on in between playing on Monday.

Another (maybe not exactly equivalent) example is DGL vs Andrej Sojakovic. DGL this year in a high-usage position at UNLV is putting up similar numbers offensively as Drej at Cal. 17.5 ppg, high usage, athletic, rim-attacking freak athlete, but low 3P%, high turnover rate, mediocre offensive efficiency, etc.

The reason that Drej is a key piece here while DGL was coming off the bench is positional size. DGL wasn't going to go out and get the rebounds and make the stops that Drej can make at 6'7".

 

[Chillinini]

I hear what you’re saying, and I do agree to an extent. The difference for me is that watching KJ over the course of a full season was essentially a slow burn decline. As the competition ramped up, he became more and more exposed….. The turnovers were brutal, the defensive gaps were well-known, and the athletic mismatch became impossible to hide. His decision-making was Jekyll-and-Hyde, and by the end it genuinely felt like we functioned better when he wasn’t on the floor.

And that’s what makes this so frustrating. He had an incredibly long leash from Underwood all year. Meanwhile Petrovic, who’s a smoother handler, better shooter, better downhill threat, better passer, and honestly just makes smarter reads, seems to get benched the moment anything goes sideways. It feels like Underwood is hunting for reasons not to play him instead of giving him room to grow.

For sure, KJ’s play became more and more inconsistent. Too many turnovers. But you saw the athleticism and playmaking ability and shooting that made him a first round selection. A bit raw and careless? Sure, but the basketball IQ and talent is there. And I do think getting hurt played some part in his struggles.

As for Mihailo, I do think it’s conditioning and defense before being utilized more. Also, he may play a huge part against UConn off the bench. I’d rather not give too many looks of Mihailo for Hurley to scout him.

 

[Bbuck21]

I can't believe (unless I missed it) that we still haven't discussed the UTRGV's player Always Wright.

 

[Piotyr]

I can't believe (unless I missed it) that we still haven't discussed the UTRGV's player Always Wright.

That was the scouting error that the team mentioned after the game. Turns out he wasn't.

 

[Chillinini]

I can't believe (unless I missed it) that we still haven't discussed the UTRGV's player Always Wright.

He has a brother…..All Wright.

 

[Combo]

I'm tired of excuses. I'm tired of equivocation. If this team is actually as good as we all thought, they need to play like it. They didn't against Alabama, and they didn't last night.

We didn't "all" think our team was the great. Our preseason ranking was #15 and that seemed about right to me. Fans drink the Koolaid every year, but I'll go with the unbiased observers.

Plenty of people cautioned that this team would likely have significant limitations on defense. We flat out are not a quick or particularly athletic team and there's no fixing that. Tomi, Z, Mirk, and Hum might all be tall, but their height doesn't mean !!!! if they are too slow to react on defense.

 

[LocalChief505]

Well there is you and that guy that does not understand that playing “as good as we all thought” means we can do so without being fully heathy! I can not believe any one would post such nonsense … let alone someone would actually agree!
Give it a few weeks… we have guys returning to the line up that have not been in full practices… the team is finding how to work in this system.
No one is making excuses… the reality is that we are not yet at a point where we are able to see us playing “ as good as we all thought”
eye roll… eye roll… eye roll

Buddy. All of Underwood's teams during his tenure here have had the same issues.
Free throws, turnovers, scoring droughts, time out and in bounding issues, head scratching defensive efforts. I'm just saying when I watch this team, I see the same general issues I've seen through the years. The floor or ceiling of the team is irrelevant to year in and year out (there will be exceptions) statistics and results. I just want people to do better. That's all.