Rebuilding years aren’t a thing anymore
Looking ahead to 2026
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Rebuilding years aren’t a thing anymore
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Two VERY early and high-level thoughts.
1) While the current era of portaling and NIL has created a lot more uncertainty ... it often events out. All 18 schools in the league face the same uncertainty, and it seems that often times the usual suspects fill their positions of need (e.g., OSU and Oregon) or fail to do enough to keep up (e.g., Purdue or Rutgers). There are obvious exceptions like Indiana or whatever, but the point is we can actually make SOMEWHAT informed predictions based on what programs are likely to do this offseason. I'm quite confident OSU will reload, and I'm quite confident Purdue isn't going to makeover its roster with elite talent, etc. So, I think it's reasonable to think we can have anywhere from an "acceptable meh" to a "pleasant surprise" in our portal additions, and it's unlikely we have a disaster or home run scenario. Fortunately, since the 2026 class looks quite good, I think we need a "par" overall from the portal to give ourselves a chance to be good, with QB being the obvious area of need.
2) In general, I think we can divide our preseason prognostications into three super broad categories - games we should win, games where we'll be clear underdogs and those "tweener" games that make or break our season. Using the last few years as an example of my subjective preseason rankings, we get the following. Keep in mind, these are based on how I think a lot of people felt PRE-season ... no one knew how elite Indiana was going to be, for example.
2023
Should Have Won on Paper
W 30-28 vs. Toledo (this one is debatable, given they were actually decently good ... but it's at home!)
W 23-17 vs. FAU
L 7-20 vs. Nebraska (I'll remind everyone Nebby was NOT thought to be good!)
W 48-45 in OT vs. Indiana
L 43-45 vs. Northwestern (yes, they won 8 games but they were picked last in Big Ten West)
"Tweener" Games
L 19-44 at Purdue
L 21-25 vs. Wisconsin
Should Have Lost on Paper
L 23-34 at Kansas
L 13-30 vs. Penn State
W 27-24 at Maryland
W 27-26 at Minnesota
L 13-15 at Iowa
So, as you likely remember it ... a total mess of a season that was all over the place, lol.
2024
Should Have Won on Paper
W 45-0 vs. Eastern Illinois
W 30-9 vs. Central Michigan
W 50-49 in OT vs. Purdue
W 38-16 vs. Michigan State
W 38-28 vs. Northwestern at Wrigley
"Tweener" Games
W 23-17 vs. Kansas
W 21-7 vs. Michigan
L 17-25 vs. Minnesota
W 38-31 at Rutgers
Should Have Lost on Paper
W 31-24 in OT at Nebraska
L 7-21 at Penn State
L 9-38 at Oregon
W 21-17 vs. South Carolina in the Citrus Bowl
Won every game we should have on paper, went 3-1 in the Tweener Games and accomplished a 2-2 record in the underdog games ... and there is your special 10-win season!
2025
Should Have Won on Paper
W 52-3 vs. Western Illinois
W 38-0 vs. Western Michigan
W 43-27 at Purdue
W 35-13 vs. Rutgers
W 24-6 vs. Maryland
L 10-27 at Wisconsin
W 20-13 vs. Northwestern
"Tweener" Games
W 45-19 at Duke
L 10-63 at Indiana
W 34-32 vs. USC
L 25-42 at Washington
Should Have Lost on Paper
L 16-34 vs. Ohio State
So while we dropped one in the first category at Wisconsin, we held serve at 2-2 in the middle category to get to 8-4.
So, for 2026? Difficult to pick preseason, but I would guess it would break down like this:
Should Win on Paper
vs. UAB
vs. Southern Illinois
vs. Purdue
at Northwestern (will be effectively a neutral site with hopefully something to play for...)
"Tweener" Games
vs. Duke
vs. Iowa
vs. Nebraska
at Maryland
at Michigan State
at UCLA
Should Lose on Paper
vs. Oregon
at Ohio State
So yeah, a ton of games in the middle there that could swing things either way, but ... if you go 4-0 in the top group, 0-2 in the third group and split the middle, there is your 7-5. Anything less likely means a 2023-esque mess of inconsistency, and a couple good portal additions could have us fighting for 9+ wins like last year. We likely need quite a haul from the portal to dream of a CFP invite, but with so many Tweener Games (as I have subjectively defined them, once again) next season, CONSISTENCY will be important. We need to try to maintain culture, and we cannot afford the same type of defense.
1) While the current era of portaling and NIL has created a lot more uncertainty ... it often events out. All 18 schools in the league face the same uncertainty, and it seems that often times the usual suspects fill their positions of need (e.g., OSU and Oregon) or fail to do enough to keep up (e.g., Purdue or Rutgers). There are obvious exceptions like Indiana or whatever, but the point is we can actually make SOMEWHAT informed predictions based on what programs are likely to do this offseason. I'm quite confident OSU will reload, and I'm quite confident Purdue isn't going to makeover its roster with elite talent, etc. So, I think it's reasonable to think we can have anywhere from an "acceptable meh" to a "pleasant surprise" in our portal additions, and it's unlikely we have a disaster or home run scenario. Fortunately, since the 2026 class looks quite good, I think we need a "par" overall from the portal to give ourselves a chance to be good, with QB being the obvious area of need.
2) In general, I think we can divide our preseason prognostications into three super broad categories - games we should win, games where we'll be clear underdogs and those "tweener" games that make or break our season. Using the last few years as an example of my subjective preseason rankings, we get the following. Keep in mind, these are based on how I think a lot of people felt PRE-season ... no one knew how elite Indiana was going to be, for example.
2023
Should Have Won on Paper
W 30-28 vs. Toledo (this one is debatable, given they were actually decently good ... but it's at home!)
W 23-17 vs. FAU
L 7-20 vs. Nebraska (I'll remind everyone Nebby was NOT thought to be good!)
W 48-45 in OT vs. Indiana
L 43-45 vs. Northwestern (yes, they won 8 games but they were picked last in Big Ten West)
"Tweener" Games
L 19-44 at Purdue
L 21-25 vs. Wisconsin
Should Have Lost on Paper
L 23-34 at Kansas
L 13-30 vs. Penn State
W 27-24 at Maryland
W 27-26 at Minnesota
L 13-15 at Iowa
So, as you likely remember it ... a total mess of a season that was all over the place, lol.
2024
Should Have Won on Paper
W 45-0 vs. Eastern Illinois
W 30-9 vs. Central Michigan
W 50-49 in OT vs. Purdue
W 38-16 vs. Michigan State
W 38-28 vs. Northwestern at Wrigley
"Tweener" Games
W 23-17 vs. Kansas
W 21-7 vs. Michigan
L 17-25 vs. Minnesota
W 38-31 at Rutgers
Should Have Lost on Paper
W 31-24 in OT at Nebraska
L 7-21 at Penn State
L 9-38 at Oregon
W 21-17 vs. South Carolina in the Citrus Bowl
Won every game we should have on paper, went 3-1 in the Tweener Games and accomplished a 2-2 record in the underdog games ... and there is your special 10-win season!
2025
Should Have Won on Paper
W 52-3 vs. Western Illinois
W 38-0 vs. Western Michigan
W 43-27 at Purdue
W 35-13 vs. Rutgers
W 24-6 vs. Maryland
L 10-27 at Wisconsin
W 20-13 vs. Northwestern
"Tweener" Games
W 45-19 at Duke
L 10-63 at Indiana
W 34-32 vs. USC
L 25-42 at Washington
Should Have Lost on Paper
L 16-34 vs. Ohio State
So while we dropped one in the first category at Wisconsin, we held serve at 2-2 in the middle category to get to 8-4.
So, for 2026? Difficult to pick preseason, but I would guess it would break down like this:
Should Win on Paper
vs. UAB
vs. Southern Illinois
vs. Purdue
at Northwestern (will be effectively a neutral site with hopefully something to play for...)
"Tweener" Games
vs. Duke
vs. Iowa
vs. Nebraska
at Maryland
at Michigan State
at UCLA
Should Lose on Paper
vs. Oregon
at Ohio State
So yeah, a ton of games in the middle there that could swing things either way, but ... if you go 4-0 in the top group, 0-2 in the third group and split the middle, there is your 7-5. Anything less likely means a 2023-esque mess of inconsistency, and a couple good portal additions could have us fighting for 9+ wins like last year. We likely need quite a haul from the portal to dream of a CFP invite, but with so many Tweener Games (as I have subjectively defined them, once again) next season, CONSISTENCY will be important. We need to try to maintain culture, and we cannot afford the same type of defense.
Too many variables right now with transfers, portal, potential coaching changes, opponents' new coaches and schemes and injuries.
I think we take a slight step back and go 7-5. Eight wins doable. If the puzzle pieces don't fit, six wins is on the table.
I don't foresee a big crash.
I think we take a slight step back and go 7-5. Eight wins doable. If the puzzle pieces don't fit, six wins is on the table.
I don't foresee a big crash.
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The ceiling????
I think it’s important to see what talent we get into the building before we start making record predictions. On the surface, it might seem like a rebuild but if we use the budget to bring in some top level players, then that could change the perception.
Eh, really early to know ceiling. The schedule really isn't something to freak out about in my opinion. On paper, there's only 2 games on there where an average B10 team would be considered anything worse than a minor underdog. And our road schedule aside from OSU is on paper about as nice as you can ask for.
Now from a "As of this very moment, what should we set our goal be for next year?" perspective, I agree with you that 7-5 seems like a reasonable good bar to chase. As we bring in new players, if we can build a team that can just go:
3-0 vPurdue, vUAB, vSIU
2-2 @UCLA, @NW, @MSU, @MD
1-2 vIowa, vDuke, vNeb
0-2 vOregon, @OSU
That's 6-6 by itself. That seems pretty doable. So having 7-5 as a goal doesn't seem unreasonable. Now if we hit this offseason out of the park and can reload, you're looking at over 8 wins as a ceiling. If we struggle this offseason, miss on the targets we want, and are forced to play younger guys because we can't fill our holes, maybe we're looking at 4 wins as a ceiling (god forbid).
I truly do believe this is the year we learn as fans whether we have completely turned the corner or not. Because it'll depend on how much we are rebuilding vs. reloading. As fans we're used to the rebuild. It hasn't been pretty. At all. If we even have a marginal reload though and make a bowl next year, considering all the turnover we're going to have, that's a clear sign our program has changed for good into a team that's going to have a floor as a bowl team. And the ceiling? Well, sky's the limit.
I'm just so incredibly thankful going into this offseason having the optimism to think that despite all the turnover we have, we can reload into a decent team next year. It's truly amazing how much Bret and Josh have changed the prospects of this program. What a difference from the "just pray we can get 3 wins" rebuilds of the past.
Yea
we could have 15-16 new starters next year - more than 1/2 of which are not even on the roster right now
I don’t think 2026 schedule looks that hard.
UAB
Duke
SIU
Those should all be wins.
UCLA/Michigan State just fired their coaches.
MD/Purdue still bottom feeders.
Ohio State/Nebraska/Iowa/NW/Oregon will be tough games.
The 2027 schedule is way harder than this one. Don’t even look at that one
UAB
Duke
SIU
Those should all be wins.
UCLA/Michigan State just fired their coaches.
MD/Purdue still bottom feeders.
Ohio State/Nebraska/Iowa/NW/Oregon will be tough games.
The 2027 schedule is way harder than this one. Don’t even look at that one
That’s an easy BT schedule
We won’t be as experienced, but my point was more to the fact that this years OL was disappointing and wasn’t a strength like we had hoped so next year we can be as good or better
Knapik will start at OT and he was first team all conference last year at Idaho , Taylor the #1 Juco OT will be the other OT. Washington the Juco transfer will be OT depth with experience behind them. Henderson is likely back and Schuster likely takes the other OG spot so that is two experienced guys in the middle with Hansen as a backup G. McMillan is the favorite at C now, but they will probably look to upgrade that position in the portal- but that is a strong starting point for OL next year
I like the distribution of Home / Away games next year.
Games where the chances of winning are GREATLY boosted by being home (Iowa / Nebby / Oregon) are at Gies; while those that are much more manageable WITHOUT a home field advantage (Maryland, Mich. State, NW) are away.
Ohio State would require a miracle regardless of location.
In a perfect world, I’d swap the ULCA and Purdue game locations, but beggars can’t be choosers!
I didn't say it was difficult
I'm just holding out on any optimism until there are some serious transfer portal adds. PLENTY of time for that, though.Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
This is an underrated and interesting point. While we have proven we can easily win in hostile environments like Nebraska last year and lose in lackluster environments like Wisconsin this year, I would argue we got the three consistently least intimidating road environments on the schedule next year in Maryland, UCLA and Northwestern, with the latter two regularly filled with 50% or more visiting fans. Besides OSU, our only historically "tough environment" on the road is at Michigan State, but it has been a shell of itself recently and they have been down.
The only game on that schedule we'll go into thinking we're playing with NOTHING but house money is the trip to Columbus. Home games vs. Iowa, Nebraska, Duke and especially Oregon will be great environments and possibly Big Noon Kickoff again for at least one of them. If we hit the portal adequately, we will have a lot of different weeks where we are having a fighting chance at a win ... and then you just do your best and hope for a 2024 scenario where we are coming out of a lot of those weeks with Ws!
DeonThomas
- South Carolina
Anyone seen a list of the Top 15-20 potential portal QB's who might be available this winter? I assume we'll start seeing photos and vague hints at some point soon from our insider guys.
UCLA will likely be in SoFi next year. It is still 12 miles from Westwood, but that is 2 1/2 times closer than the Rose Bowl. Maybe that will change the environment?
UCLA will never have a home field advantage
but they will always have a west coast advantage which may be worth more as it relates to playing midwest or east coast teams
DeonThomas
- South Carolina
Saturday Sports Talk -- pregame interview with the voice of the Wildcats. Guy said the commitment is that the new stadium will be ready in the fall of 2026. He indicated it was still uncertain which game next fall would be the first.
mhuml32
Gesture of Northern Aggression
Duke will be interesting. They spent big on Mensah and a few other pieces. They might view next year as their best chance as a contender. I understand that they have a chance at the playoff this weekend, but it makes sense that they were building towards next year being their best opportunity. If they further increase their football spending, that could be a tough game.
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It sounds cool and all, but three guys can't be your RB1 (at max two). Its the same reason Brad doesn't play 10 guys 15 minutes. Leads to too much inconsistentcy and instability throughout games over the course of a season.
It's what we had last year with two guys splitting majority of the reps (Laughery and McCray) with Valentine has the changeup third back. Sure felt like a much more efficient rushing attack...
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This may sound evident due to some of our inept performances, but in order to persue that logic either a) we need to land a stud RB in the portal who'll be far and away the best in that room or b) one of our big three needs to leave.
I personally think if we can improve the OLine the rushing stats will take care of itself. Didn't make a ton of sense how we regressed from a year ago despite all 5 starters back (and no injuries).
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skyIdub
"I can't tell you. Secret."
I think we might need a forensic examination of this "paper" saying Indiana was a tweener?
The 2027 schedule is more hopeful than you think. Especially if we have a lot of 2-3 year quality transfers come in next year and get experience in this system under their belts.
Indiana- Will the Cignetti effect still be there or will things settle in?
Michigan- Tossup. Still have a very very bad offense. We will see what happens next year.
USC- Floundering. I think Riley is gone after next season.
Penn State- Another tossup imo.
Missouri- Good team but we are at their level these days. 50/50.
This 2026 schedule is definitely easier without knowing all the variables but I think the biggest struggle will be getting guys to gel and play consistently. Big $ is about to be spent but it may take until mid season for the team to find their groove.
A lot of tossup games for sure. Oregon at home will be a fun one.
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