Illinois #14 in 12/1 AP Poll

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#1      

Dan

Dan
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Dan
Welcome to the Polls Thread
 
#2      
phats22
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#3      
Fighter of the Nightman
This will test the classic logic of the AP voters, lol. If our loss to UConn is “embarrassing” enough to knock us down that far, then UConn shouldn’t move up … after all, they did nothing they weren’t supposed to. If our loss to UConn said more about how great the Huskies are, then reward UConn but don’t harshly punish us for losing a game in a semi-road environment where we were clear underdogs!

Instead, we’ll get the classic method of bumping UConn up 2-3 spots (as long as there’s room above) and sliding us down 3-4.
 
#11      
BoiseBaller
Seems about right. We are a fringe top 25 team at the moment. That could improve if the team gels, but the ceiling to me seems top 15ish. They have a ways to go to get to that though.
 
#12      
Birdus
IllinialuminAZ said:
I can't stress how much I hate looking up at Iowa and Indiana in any rankings. We need to get this fixed at least. Hoping this week of practice and some additional time for Tomi to heal will help us get back on track.
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Seems like Tomi has been injured or sick quite a bit. Kid needs a break. It would be nice to get Ty back before Christmas. I still think we could use his athleticism, defense and rebounding in key situations.
 
#15      
Fighter of the Nightman
FWIW, here were our NET Rankings on Selection Sunday each year since 2021, with our "expected" seed and actual seed. To keep it simple, the assumption is just that your NET Ranking would correspond to your seed (1-4 = #1 seeds, 5-8 = #2 seeds, 9-12 = #3 seeds, etc.), even though they do consider other things.

Season: Illini NET Ranking on Selection Sunday ---> Expected Seed Based on NET Ranking ---> Actual Illini NCAAT Seed (Actual Overall NCAAT Seed)

2021: #3 NET ---> Third #1 Seed ---> Third #1 Seed (#3 Overall Seed)
2022: #15 NET ---> Third #4 Seed ---> Second #4 Seed (#14 Overall Seed)
2023: #34 NET ---> Second #9 Seed ---> Lowest #9 Seed (#36 Overall Seed)
2024: #13 NET ---> Highest #4 Seed ---> Lowest #3 Seed (#12 Overall Seed)
2025: #17 NET ---> Highest #5 Seed ---> Second #6 Seed (#22 Overall Seed)

So put even more simply, comparing the final NET Ranking to the final seed line:

2021: #3 NET ---> #3 Overall Seed
2022: #15 NET ---> #14 Overall Seed
2023: #34 NET ---> #36 Overall Seed
2024: #13 NET ---> #12 Overall Seed
2025: #17 NET ---> #22 Overall Seed
2026: #24 NET

So, from a NET perspective alone ... clearly trending worse than last year. Beating #12 Tennessee on a neutral court would be a great statement. While the NET is not destiny, it is usually pretty darn close to what your seed will be in a normal year. Our biggest variance was last year, and that negative discrepancy was likely due to having 12 losses on Selection Sunday (compared to only 8 in 2024, despite a SOMEWHAT similar NET).

P.S. As much as it pains you, root for Missouri. Braggin' Rights is always such an intense atmosphere where anything can happen, and we need them to be a Quad 1 opponent and thus in the top 50 ... they're #51 right now.
 
#21      
Fighter of the Nightman
Dan said:
Illinois #14 in AP Poll

apnews.com

NCAA College Basketball Rankings: AP Top 25 Basketball Poll

The official page for the AP Top 25 men's college basketball poll. Keep up to date and view the latest NCAA men's basketball ranking updates each week for the 2025-26 season.
apnews.com apnews.com
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I stand corrected on punishing us too much! Here is an updated list of games for our #14 Illini vs. currently-ranked teams, including the three we have already played...

Nov. 11 - W 81-77 vs. #19 Texas Tech
Nov. 19 - L 86-90 vs. #12 Alabama (Chicago, IL)
Nov. 28 - L 61-74 vs. #5 UConn (New York, NY)

Dec. 6 - vs. #15 Tennessee (Nashville, TN)
Jan. 24 - at #1 Purdue
Feb. 7 - at #7 Michigan State
Feb. 15 - vs. #22 Indiana
Feb. 18 - at #24 USC
Feb. 27 - vs. #3 Michigan

... and we have the following games which are against teams who are VERY closed to being ranked:

Dec. 13 - vs. RV #28 Nebraska
Dec. 22 - vs. RV #30 Missouri (St. Louis, MO)
Jan. 11 - at RV #26 Iowa
Feb. 1 - at RV #28 Nebraska
Feb. 21 - at RV #27 UCLA

Tough schedule with plenty of great opportunities for these guys if they can continue to come together and tighten up on the self-inflicted mistakes. I'm sure many think I am putting too much pressure on one game, but I really do feel that going into enemy territory in Nashville and defeating a top 15 Tennessee team in a postseason-like environment (and to improve to 2-2 vs. the current top 25) would do wonders to make many fans and even the players feel like we are "back on track" for a great season!!
 
#23      
NarrowJ
derrick6 said:
That’s respect. Earned by historical precedent.
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Idk... we always seem to argue the opposite...

EDIT: In fact, the previous thread that was closed this morning has folks saying we would drop more than we should because lack of [national] respect

EDIT 2: Just went and looked at KP, EvanMiya, Torvik and #14 is in line with those metrics, so I think it holds up
 
#24      
Fighter of the Nightman
Scoregasm said:
I'm happy we're at 14 but around 20 matches my eye test.
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Eh, I think it totally depends on what you make of our opponents. We have had four types of games, in reality:

1) Dominating inferior competition.
2) Grinding out a close win vs. a ranked team (Texas Tech at home).
3) Losing a close game vs. a ranked team (Alabama in Chicago).
4) Getting beaten handily by a top 10 team (UConn at MSG).

I think we can all agree the #1 games don't tell us a lot, though it's obviously a way better sign than struggling. If UConn is a true Final Four threat, the #4 game arguably only tells us so much, too (though ... the eye test there wasn't kind!). So, I think everything about our total eye test here comes down to how good Alabama is, because Texas Tech looks a little overrated and probably more like a #25-30 team until they figure things out. If Alabama is a legit top 10 squad, then we went toe to toe with them and looked like we belonged. If Alabama is more of a top 20 squad, then I agree with you and we sort of gave a game away vs. another top 20 squad, and our "real feel" would be in the #18-22 range for me.

I'll harp on it for the billionth time ... the Tennessee game will tell me a lot. Lose that one, and we look decidedly like a team that can't quite beat top 20 teams but can beat top 25+ teams. Win that one, and it becomes a lot easier to psychologically accept the 'Bama game where things easily could have rolled our way.
 
#25      
NarrowJ
Fighter of the Nightman said:
Eh, I think it totally depends on what you make of our opponents. We have had four types of games, in reality:

1) Dominating inferior competition.
2) Grinding out a close win vs. a ranked team (Texas Tech at home).
3) Losing a close game vs. a ranked team (Alabama in Chicago).
4) Getting beaten handily by a top 10 team (UConn at MSG).

I think we can all agree the #1 games don't tell us a lot, though it's obviously a way better sign than struggling. If UConn is a true Final Four threat, the #4 game arguably only tells us so much, too (though ... the eye test there wasn't kind!). So, I think everything about our total eye test here comes down to how good Alabama is, because Texas Tech looks a little overrated and probably more like a #25-30 team until they figure things out. If Alabama is a legit top 10 squad, then we went toe to toe with them and looked like we belonged. If Alabama is more of a top 20 squad, then I agree with you and we sort of gave a game away vs. another top 20 squad, and our "real feel" would be in the #18-22 range for me.

I'll harp on it for the billionth time ... the Tennessee game will tell me a lot. Lose that one, and we look decidedly like a team that can't quite beat top 20 teams but can beat top 25+ teams. Win that one, and it becomes a lot easier to psychologically accept the 'Bama game where things easily could have rolled our way.
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I agree with all of this, and I think we're still at a point in the season where we are a grand total 20 point swing of either being undefeated with wins over Texas Tech, Bama and UConn or being 5-3 with lone wins over nobodies

Or, another way to look at it is we are 5 points away from being 7-1 with wins vs Texas Tech & Bama and sole loss to #5

Biggest question right now (for me) is if the shooting is what it is or if we see some positive regression there
 
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