Coaching Carousel (Football)

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#429      
the juiceman cometh
I'm going to make a bold prediction that neither the Fitz nor the Campbell hire is going to be a home run when it's all said and done.

I think 2026 Fitz is going to be closer to 2022 Fitz than 2018 Fitz (just as, sadly, my current version is more similar to the 35-year-old model than the 25-year-old model).

I think Campbell, while a very good coach, will struggle with not having the necessary talent out the gate and won't ever fully recover, and of course will also struggle with the unrealistic fan and booster expectations. I wonder if it will be a Shaka Smart-ish situation where he was fully content not having the "big-time job" and eventually would prefer to go back to a Iowa State-like situation (or maybe something in-between; decent resources but not a blue blood or wannabe blue blood).

Edit to add: For all the credit Campbell deserves at Iowa St., he's hasn't shown the ability to do the thing that was Franklin's undoing - beat Ryan Day. I am convinced if Franklin's record vs Ryan Day was 3-3 (and not 0-6) he'd still be the PSU coach. Campbell hasn't been tested in that way, and few coaches alive have shown an ability to do that at all, let alone with any consistency (Day has lost 10 games in 7 seasons, of which 6 were against Big Ten opponents - Michigan 4 times and Oregon twice). But that's what PSU fans want.
 
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#431      
illinoistradition
the juiceman cometh said:
I'm going to make a bold prediction that neither the Fitz nor the Campbell hire is going to be a home run when it's all said and done.

I think 2026 Fitz is going to be closer to 2022 Fitz than 2018 Fitz (just as, sadly, my current version is more similar to the 35-year-old model than the 25-year-old model).

I think Campbell, while a very good coach, will struggle with not having the necessary talent out the gate and won't ever fully recover, and of course will also struggle with the unrealistic fan and booster expectations. I wonder if it will be a Shaka Smart-ish situation where he was fully content not having the "big-time job" and eventually would prefer to go back to a Iowa State-like situation (or maybe something in-between; decent resources but not a blue blood or wannabe blue blood).

Edit to add: For all the credit Campbell deserves at Iowa St., he's hasn't shown the ability to do the thing that was Franklin's undoing - beat Ryan Day. I am convinced if Franklin's record vs Ryan Day was 3-3 (and not 0-6) he'd still be the PSU coach. Campbell hasn't been tested in that way, and few coaches alive have shown an ability to do that at all, let alone with any consistency (Day has lost 10 games in 7 seasons, of which 6 were against Big Ten opponents - Michigan 4 times and Oregon twice). But that's what PSU fans want.
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Interesting Shaka Smart comparison with Campbell. I do think some of the Iowa State fans were getting frustrated with not rising up even more this year, but I think they have already forgotten how absolutely terrible they were in the 200s and early 2010s. It could go back that way if they are not careful with their hire.
 
#434      
Pikeillinifan
fatt lacosse said:
seeing large efforts by big ten rivals to be more competitive

wondering about our efforts to do the same
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The AD and football staff are doing everything they can to continue building and improving, same for our wealthy alumni. We're in the upper echelon, and it's not going to get easier. The B1G and SEC programs are not going to roll over; it will only get more and more competitive. I think we're in a great spot.
 
#435      
FloridaMan
I don't know, do you think those things will help us keep Indiana from dropping 63 on us (and they easily could have scored over 70)? Or prevent Wisconsin's league worst offense from exploding for 27 points when they didn't score over 13 in any other league game? Or keep the Washington game competitive at least?

I agree, the accomplishments you listed are fantastic. Sorry, just thought the response to a legitimate question seeking opinions on the continued improvement of the program was a bit harsh.
 
#436      
ptgrd23
Everybody wants Cignetti/IU secret sauce.

Texas Tech has duplicated sauce with estimated $29M in NIL spending to get #1 portal class and 11-1 record. They were 8-5, 7-6, and 8-5 3 prior years under same coach.

If Penn State gives Campbell top 10 NIL money then they will get a top 10 team. Winning the CFP is a crap shoot but you have to get there first.

247sports.com

College football NIL collective leaders for 2025: NCAA estimates nation's top-25 spenders

Fundraising and donor contributions are not issues at these programs.
247sports.com 247sports.com

24/7 estimates NIL were total guess work

#1 TX - your coaching seat is getting warm
#2 OSU CFP
#3 LSU - fired coach
#4 GA - CFP
#5 Tx AM CFP
#6 Michigan - ???
#7 Bama - CFP
#8 FL - fired coach
 
#437      
Beepboop
We may not have the most talented players, but it also seems as though the player development is not what it should be. The defense and offensive lines in particular have regressed in the last couple of years. Fundamentals and scheme seem to be lacking. How many more years are we going to continue to blame the players and not make the coaches take accountability? I love what Bret has done for the program and appreciate his loyalty and belief in his people, but there are tough conversations and actions that have to take place sometimes. Its telling when one of your players says that the preparation could have been better.
 
#438      
bluemountain
the juiceman cometh said:
I'm going to make a bold prediction that neither the Fitz nor the Campbell hire is going to be a home run when it's all said and done.

I think 2026 Fitz is going to be closer to 2022 Fitz than 2018 Fitz (just as, sadly, my current version is more similar to the 35-year-old model than the 25-year-old model).

I think Campbell, while a very good coach, will struggle with not having the necessary talent out the gate and won't ever fully recover, and of course will also struggle with the unrealistic fan and booster expectations. I wonder if it will be a Shaka Smart-ish situation where he was fully content not having the "big-time job" and eventually would prefer to go back to a Iowa State-like situation (or maybe something in-between; decent resources but not a blue blood or wannabe blue blood).

Edit to add: For all the credit Campbell deserves at Iowa St., he's hasn't shown the ability to do the thing that was Franklin's undoing - beat Ryan Day. I am convinced if Franklin's record vs Ryan Day was 3-3 (and not 0-6) he'd still be the PSU coach. Campbell hasn't been tested in that way, and few coaches alive have shown an ability to do that at all, let alone with any consistency (Day has lost 10 games in 7 seasons, of which 6 were against Big Ten opponents - Michigan 4 times and Oregon twice). But that's what PSU fans want.
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I'll go 50/50 on your prediction. Agree on Fitz, disagree on Campbell - I think he will be very successful. There is a lot of support for the PSU program, financially and otherwise, and they will rebound quickly. Campbell is a legitimate offensive mastermind, which will give him a leg up
 
#439      
Mr. Tibbs
bluemountain said:
I'll go 50/50 on your prediction. Agree on Fitz, disagree on Campbell - I think he will be very successful. There is a lot of support for the PSU program, financially and otherwise, and they will rebound quickly. Campbell is a legitimate offensive mastermind, which will give him a leg up
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Fitz has 401 million reasons why it will be okay up there .

he might not win a CFP game or be in one , but he will be way more successful than Smith or Tucker were .

Campbell tho has a fanbase with way loftier expectations than those in East Lansing
 
#440      
lstewart53x3
Beepboop said:
We may not have the most talented players, but it also seems as though the player development is not what it should be. The defense and offensive lines in particular have regressed in the last couple of years. Fundamentals and scheme seem to be lacking. How many more years are we going to continue to blame the players and not make the coaches take accountability? I love what Bret has done for the program and appreciate his loyalty and belief in his people, but there are tough conversations and actions that have to take place sometimes. Its telling when one of your players says that the preparation could have been better.
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I mean, according to 247, we have the 64th ranked team in the talent composite, yet ended up at #28 in KFord.

That’s +36 spots, which is one of the greatest over achievements relative to talent by any team in the country.

So if we want to hold our coaches accountable for player development, it sounds like many of them deserve raises.

Illinois *football* went 18-7 over the past 2 years with one of the least talented rosters in the B1G and fans want to fire coaches like we went 7-18.
 
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#442      
altgeld88
mhuml32 said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1996793387975168188
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Ander1345 said:
Colin Farrell Reaction GIF
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In Bruges had a happier ending for Colin, grim as the bigger picture was.
 
#445      
Old.Edgy
the juiceman cometh said:
The other complicating factor for any coach who takes on the PSU job is that, apparently boosters and players are very invested in the idea of hiring Terry Smith as the full time head coach. Additionally, Smith is apparently a leading candidate for other HC jobs, such as UConn and Memphis, if/when he doesn't get the PSU job.

So you're going to take on a program that added basically nothing in 2026 prep recruiting, that already has a pretty Senior loaded roster (i.e. players that will not be returning next season), and that could face major retention challenges with players loyal to Smith either following him, or going elsewhere. You're likely going to have to build an entirely new roster out of transfers, which can be done (see e.g. Indiana) but is very easy to mess up (see e.g. North Carolina). This is a huge challenge for whoever takes the job, but it's worth noting that historically, Matt Campbell has not really been a big transfer portal guy. And you'll have to work hard to get the boosters back on board so you have the resources to do that, and some of them might be upset that 'their guy' didn't get the job, and that you did.

Even if they knock the hire out of the park at this point (and its debatable whether Campbell would represent 'knocking it out of the park') this search has been hilariously bad. The whole point of firing Franklin mid-season was ostensibly to get a head start on the search and maintain as much roster and recruiting integrity as possible, and they have completely failed on that score.

EDIT to add: In a further twist that makes this even more delightful, the guy they fired did get a head start on recruiting at his new job, exactly what PSU wanted for itself, and VT pulled in the #23 class in the country per 247, in large part with guys that committed to him while he was at PSU. This is the highest ranked class (per 247) VT has had since 2013.
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I thought I saw the ghost of Bo Pellini lurking around that Jo Pa statue ...
 
#447      
the juiceman cometh
Oracle21 said:
Matt Campbell beat more ranked teams at Iowa State than Franklin did at PSU. This is a really good hire for them and a good move for Campbell.
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That is a data point in his favor for sure, but if you dig down into the data, he did benefit from a lot of dubiously ranked Big 12 opponents, whereas Franklin racked up a lot of losses vs top 5 ranked Big 10 programs. Campbell hasn't beaten a top-5 team since 2017 and the only Big Ten opponent Iowa St. played with any regularity was Iowa, aginst whom he went 3-6. It might well work out, and maybe the added resources of Penn St. and his coaching are a potent mix, but there is really no guarantee here. People almost universally thought Lincoln Riley (another guy who feasted on Big 12 competition) was a home run hire for USC and he hasn't lived up to expectations.
 
#448      
jrichisamazing
the juiceman cometh said:
I'm going to make a bold prediction that neither the Fitz nor the Campbell hire is going to be a home run when it's all said and done.

I think 2026 Fitz is going to be closer to 2022 Fitz than 2018 Fitz (just as, sadly, my current version is more similar to the 35-year-old model than the 25-year-old model).

I think Campbell, while a very good coach, will struggle with not having the necessary talent out the gate and won't ever fully recover, and of course will also struggle with the unrealistic fan and booster expectations. I wonder if it will be a Shaka Smart-ish situation where he was fully content not having the "big-time job" and eventually would prefer to go back to a Iowa State-like situation (or maybe something in-between; decent resources but not a blue blood or wannabe blue blood).

Edit to add: For all the credit Campbell deserves at Iowa St., he's hasn't shown the ability to do the thing that was Franklin's undoing - beat Ryan Day. I am convinced if Franklin's record vs Ryan Day was 3-3 (and not 0-6) he'd still be the PSU coach. Campbell hasn't been tested in that way, and few coaches alive have shown an ability to do that at all, let alone with any consistency (Day has lost 10 games in 7 seasons, of which 6 were against Big Ten opponents - Michigan 4 times and Oregon twice). But that's what PSU fans want.
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The good news for Campbell is their schedule is very navigable next year. They avoid tOSU, IU, and Oregon. Toughest games are @Michigan, @Wash, and vs USC.

But like you said, he has a lot of work to do to get his roster ready.
 
#450      
TentakilRex
illinoistradition said:
I’d be pretty underwhelmed if I was a ISU fan. He walked into a tailor-made situation at SDSU, was there two years, and then went to WSU for one meh year.
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To be fair, I did not even heard of the guy until this post.
 
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