Illini Basketball 2025-2026

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#76      
NarrowJ
Fighter of the Nightman said:
Wouldn’t be surprised if our TTU win is Quad 1 again tomorrow after them destroying a bad LSU team at a neutral site. Like you said, a lot will change based on results for the rest of this month, and one game will start to have less of an impact once we start the main part of conference play.
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I agree that LSU isn’t a good team at all, but I think the fact they’re actually #18 in NET currently will help Texas Tech’s number
 
#77      
FeelYourPaign
IlliniHardwood said:
Yes, if you only look on Ticketmaster. No, if you look on StubHub or VividSeats. But, if you don't want to sit in top ring, you're going to have to pony up like I did... I have an amazing wife who said I should treat myself, and that's what I did 😁:chief:
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Maybe you could ask chatGPT to summarize FOTN posts? Not sure, but maybe🤷
 
#78      
theNewGuy
#79      
jjv0004
Bigtex said:
Amazing that the mighty sec 1 team in top13 lol
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The SEC is way down this year. They arguably had the strongest conference in the history of college basketball last year. Which is not too bad for a football conference.
 
#84      
Illini in Italy
illini0440 said:
You can make checks out to 0440;)
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Thierry Henry Smile GIF by hamlet
 
#86      
jrichisamazing
Whitmans Sampler said:
Just checked out Purdue’s conference schedule.. they only play ILL, Mich, and MSU once each. All 3 games at Mackey.

What a freakin gift. Pretty sad (not really) if they manage to piss it down their leg.
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That is very fortunate for them. That being said, I don't think this is the year to shout out uneven scheduling. Torvik gives Purdue the 3rd toughest conference schedule. We have the easiest. The biggest factor in determining SOS is looking at who you play twice.

Purdue - Iowa, Indiana, and Wisconsin

Illinois - Northwestern, Nebraska, Maryland

That's a very favorable draw for us this year.
 
#90      
MDchicago
This Ken Pomeroy post about jump balls on substack made me wonder whether there is a case to be made to start Big Z for the jump ball to try to gain an extra possession. He's a solid rotation piece in any event, and he provides a decided statistical edge the first seconds of a game, so why not play him at that moment you know he has the edge (in lieu of whoever you prefer until the first dead ball)? 🤔

"Much like the two-for-one at the end of the half, it’s not worth all that much, but it’s some low-hanging analytical fruit. If your backup big is better than your starter at winning the tip, and he’s going to play 15 minutes anyway, why not just start him and sub him out at the first dead ball? You’ve slightly improved your chance of getting an extra possession in the game.....

It’s not even about DNA as the Ivišić twins of Illinois prove. One of them is elite (Zvonimir, 17-6 lifetime) and one is not (Tomislav, 14-19)."
KPsubstack
 
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#91      
NarrowJ
MDchicago said:
This sentence from a Ken Pomeroy post about jump balls on substack made me wonder whether there is a case to be made to start Big Z for the jump ball to try to gain an extra possession. He's a solid rotation piece in any event, and he provides a decided statistical edge the first seconds of a game, so why not play him at that moment you know he has the edge (in lieu of whoever you prefer until the first dead ball)? 🤔

"It’s not even about DNA as the Ivišić twins of Illinois prove. One of them is elite (Zvonimir, 17-6 lifetime) and one is not (Tomislav, 14-19)."
KPsubstack
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I don't think you actually gain a possession though. The alternating possession rule and possession arrow/indicator dictates this, with it immediately flipping to the team that loses the first tip (and then possession start of second half goes to whomever has the possession arrow/indicator at the end of the first half). Regardless, I also don't think it is worth starting however many possessions right at the outset of the game without arguably your best player on the floor.
 
#92      
MDchicago
NarrowJ said:
I don't think you actually gain a possession though. The alternating possession rule and possession arrow/indicator dictates this, with it immediately flipping to the team that loses the first tip (and then possession start of second half goes to whomever has the possession arrow/indicator at the end of the first half). Regardless, I also don't think it is worth starting however many possessions right at the outset of the game without arguably your best player on the floor.
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It's a chance at an additional possession (~a 1.4% increase in Illini possessions if he wins the tip and total possessions end up an odd number; also a reduction in % of time your opponent has that opportunity), not the guarantee of one. Wouldn't consider it if the backup wasn't good enough to be in the rotation for half the game anyway.... As KP notes, it is low-hanging analytical fruit albeit with limited impact. But a series of limited impact decisions add up and many conference games turn on a possession or two...
 
#93      
NarrowJ
MDchicago said:
It's a chance at an additional possession (~a 1.4% increase in Illini possessions if he wins the tip and total possessions end up an odd number), not the guarantee of one. Wouldn't consider it if the backup wasn't good enough to be in the rotation for half the game anyway.... As KP notes, it is low-hanging analytical fruit albeit with limited impact. But a series of limited impact decisions add up and many conference games turn on a possession or two...
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I get all that, I just wouldn't do it because I feel there is more value in setting the tone early

Z is a great backup center, but Tomi is a couple levels above him as a player

Definitely understand your POV on this, totally valid (y)
 
#94      
Mottman26
NarrowJ said:
I don't think you actually gain a possession though. The alternating possession rule and possession arrow/indicator dictates this, with it immediately flipping to the team that loses the first tip (and then possession start of second half goes to whomever has the possession arrow/indicator at the end of the first half). Regardless, I also don't think it is worth starting however many possessions right at the outset of the game without arguably your best player on the floor.
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Edit: MDchicago beat me to it!

By winning the initial tip, you guarantee that the other team will not end up with more granted possessions than you. Alternating possessions favors the winner of the initial tip if there are an even number of subsequent possession changes (including the start of second half). If there are an odd number of subsequent possession arrow changes, both teams end up with the same amount of granted possessions. But at no point will the tip winner end up with fewer granted possessions than the tip loser.

Think of it this way: if there is only one tie-up called the entire game, the tip winner starts with the ball (+1 possession advantage), the tip loser gets the ball at half (no advantage), and the tip winner gets the ball with a tie-up in the second half (back to +1 possession advantage). Like the article states, it's not a major advantage, but in a close game where every possession counts, it could be worth a look.
 
#95      
NarrowJ
Mottman26 said:
Edit: MDchicago beat me to it!

By winning the initial tip, you guarantee that the other team will not end up with more granted possessions than you. Alternating possessions favors the winner of the initial tip if there are an even number of subsequent possession changes (including the start of second half). If there are an odd number of subsequent possession arrow changes, both teams end up with the same amount of granted possessions. But at no point will the tip winner end up with fewer granted possessions than the tip loser.

Think of it this way: if there is only one tie-up called the entire game, the tip winner starts with the ball (+1 possession advantage), the tip loser gets the ball at half (no advantage), and the tip winner gets the ball with a tie-up in the second half (back to +1 possession advantage). Like the article states, it's not a major advantage, but in a close game where every possession counts, it could be worth a look.
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But by doing this, you have one of your 2 best players on the bench for X number of minutes to start the game

I get the wanting to have a chance at 1% more possessions, but like I said I am more a believer in setting a tone early

EDIT: Z gets the tip 73% of the time, Tomi gets it 42% of the time... a 31% difference... so, a 1.4% increase in possessions, 31% of the time... overall a 0.4(ish)% increase in possessions... just not worth having Tomi on the bench for the first several (or more) possessions of the game, imo
 
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#96      
MDchicago
NarrowJ said:
I get all that, I just wouldn't do it because I feel there is more value in setting the tone early

Z is a great backup center, but Tomi is a couple levels above him as a player

Definitely understand your POV on this, totally valid (y)
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Yep, not going to make any top 10 issues lists...

Reminds me of the time my (now-deceased) father-in-law said in one of our earliest meetings, "apologies, even I lost interest half way through that story." To which I replied "don't worry, you made it further than the rest of us" (pretty ballsy given the circumstances, but I was 98% certain it fit his personality perfectly. It did, and our relationship was off and running....
 
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#97      
Fighter of the Nightman
I was going to post this in the OSU pregame thread, but I didn't want a bunch of people jumping on me for not "taking it one game at a time." :ROFLMAO: With that said, I think we can all agree that the Tennessee game did A LOT to reassure fans about this team and put us back in the conversation for a top 2/3 seed. We were at a fork in the road, and a win got us back on the right side of worrying. However, two wins this week would REALLY establish some momentum for our resume. Playing #44 Ohio State on the road and #23 Nebraska at home are currently both Quad 1 games, and I think if we are able to achieve a RELATIVELY reasonable 2-0 start to Big Ten play this week, I am also pretty confident we would win Braggin' Rights and beat Southern at home.

This early in the season, such a finish to the year would be a truly remarkable reshaping of our resume compared to just a few days ago, and I think we would enter the New Year feeling that this team was red hot and gaining steam. If we are able to finish out CY 2025 with a 4-0 record - something that will certainly not be EASY but that is also totally within the realm of "realistically optimistic" - just look at how different our resume would look on January 1.

Illini Resume Today
Record: 7-2 (0-0)
NET Rank: #13
Road Record: 0-0
Neutral Record: 1-2
Home Record: 6-0
Quad 1 Record: 2-2
Quad 2 Record: 0-0
Quad 3 Record: 2-0
Quad 4 Record: 3-0

Hypothesized Finish to CY 2025
W at #44 Ohio State (Q1)
W vs. #23 Nebraska (Q1)
W vs. #78 Missouri (St. Louis, MO) [Q2]
W vs. #271 Southern (Q4)

Potential Illini Resume on January 1, 2026
Record: 11-2 (2-0)
NET Rank: ??? Almost certainly in the #5-10 range
Road Record: 1-0
Neutral Record: 2-2
Home Record: 8-0
Quad 1 Record: 4-2
Quad 2 Record: 1-0
Quad 3 Record: 2-0
Quad 4 Record: 4-0

Once again, it will not be in any way easy, but this is hardly a stretch of playing Michigan, Purdue and MSU on the road; we CAN go 4-0 to end the year, and if we do ... well, we will be sitting pretty to start 2026, to say the least. It would take nearly ALL of the pressure off of us from a resume standpoint as we start the gauntlet that is Big Ten play. Today, we are back "on track" for fighting for a top seed, and we are no longer behind the 8-ball like we were after the UConn loss. However, if we achieve the results outlined above? We are back AHEAD of the curve for a top 2/3 seed, and our "next goal up" all of a sudden becomes starting to get greedy and wondering if this is the type of squad that can go into Mackey and Breslin Center and sneak out wins...

Let's go do it!!
 
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#98      
Illini 993
NarrowJ said:
But by doing this, you have one of your 2 best players on the bench for X number of minutes to start the game

I get the wanting to have a chance at 1% more possessions, but like I said I am more a believer in setting a tone early

EDIT: Z gets the tip 73% of the time, Tomi gets it 42% of the time... a 31% difference... so, a 1.4% increase in possessions, 31% of the time... overall a 0.4(ish)% increase in possessions... just not worth having Tomi on the bench for the first several (or more) possessions of the game, imo
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An easy fix for your concern about Tomi not being on the floor would be to start a twin towers lineup, then get Mirk in at the first dead ball (unless the twin towers lineup is working very well.) I would like to see a bit more of both Tomi and Z on the floor together. They could alternate being at the three line and down low for a rebound, as it is always nice to have a 7 footer battling for the boards, and they are both good 3 point shooters. I realize that it isn't the optimal defensive lineup, but it would enable the team to have a second 7 footer to erase at least some of the breakdowns.
 
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#99      
Tevo
Whitmans Sampler said:
Just checked out Purdue’s conference schedule.. they only play ILL, Mich, and MSU once each. All 3 games at Mackey.

What a freakin gift. Pretty sad (not really) if they manage to piss it down their leg.
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Was just looking quickly at the schedule. We have Purdue and MSU only on the road, and Minnesota and Washington only at home. That is rough. Would LOVE to flip those four.
 
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