CFP & Bowl Games

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#51      
IlliniBrave75
EyeoftheIllini said:
I agree changing the positions of those teams when they did made little sense. However, I think they got it right and the original positions didn’t make sense. All three teams were 10-2. ND was 0-2 against Sagarin top 10 teams and 2-2 against Sagarin top 30 teams. Miami was 1-0 and 2-2 respectively, with that top 10 win being against Notre Dame. And Alabama was 1-1 and 7-2. Just don’t see how ND was ever ranked ahead of those two teams with their weak schedule and having lost to one of them.
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I understand Miami being ahead of them, as they won the head to head matchup. Alabama has the worst loss between them and ND. FSU only won two conference games and two buy games after beating Bama!

If Illinois had only lost to Indiana and OSU, how would we feel if Alabama got in over us? I imagine most here would be fuming!
 
#52      
altgeld88
Interesting article in The Wall Street Journal this morning about Cignetti's extremely limited physical practice regimen. Don't know if it's paywalled.

They’re the Best Team in College Football—and They Barely Practice at All
Indiana went from one of college football’s losingest schools to the top team in the country. And it didn’t take endless hours on the practice field to get there.

 
#53      
aaeismacgychel
IlliniBrave75 said:
I understand Miami being ahead of them, as they won the head to head matchup. Alabama has the worst loss between them and ND. FSU only won two conference games and two buy games after beating Bama!

If Illinois had only lost to Indiana and OSU, how would we feel if Alabama got in over us? I imagine most here would be fuming!
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With the way the field shaped out this year, my gut feel is we wouldn't have made it at 10-2, and yes, there would have been furious uproar. The only way we'd have gotten in is if they decided either we had a better resume than Alabama at 10-2 which I don't think we did, or leave the ACC/ND bidless which I don't think they would. It would've been ugly.
 
#54      
SuperintendentChalmers
aaeismacgychel said:
With the way the field shaped out this year, my gut feel is we wouldn't have made it at 10-2, and yes, there would have been furious uproar. The only way we'd have gotten in is if they decided either we had a better resume than Alabama at 10-2 which I don't think we did, or leave the ACC/ND bidless which I don't think they would. It would've been ugly.
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If we beat both UWs and were in contention with Alabama for a CFP spot, every ESPN personality would have been given a five-minute egg timer. When the sand ran to the bottom chamber, they would have to say “63-10” and turn the timer over.
 
#55      
WhiteHorse
altgeld88 said:
Interesting article in The Wall Street Journal this morning about Cignetti's extremely limited physical practice regimen. Don't know if it's paywalled.

They’re the Best Team in College Football—and They Barely Practice at All
Indiana went from one of college football’s losingest schools to the top team in the country. And it didn’t take endless hours on the practice field to get there.

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I got you guys: https://www.wsj.com/sports/football...a?st=Nu9MX6&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
 
#57      
Scoregasm
SuperintendentChalmers said:
If we beat both UWs and were in contention with Alabama for a CFP spot, every ESPN personality would have been given a five-minute egg timer. When the sand ran to the bottom chamber, they would have to say “63-10” and turn the timer over.
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Only 11-1 would have gotten us in....seems like we need another huge step in our evolution to get there.
 
#59      
Illini in Italy
This came across my Facebook feed. Had to chuckle at his one - the Jets are certainly hungry for a QB

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#60      
bluemountain
I kind of get why ND fans are upset, but let's get real....based on the AP rankings Alabama beat #2, #14, #25, #28 and barely lost to #8 and had a bad loss to FSU. They finished the regular season at 10-2 and we have been told that the conference playoff result wouldn't count against them. ND beat #16, #22 and #31 and lost close ones to #7 and #10. They also finished 10-2. Bama has the best wins and the worst loss. IMO, the fact they have better wins should play in their favor and explains why they are in and the Crying Irish are out.
 
#61      
champaignchris
I’m sure the committee would deny it, but I do wonder if Bama and Miami being the top two teams to be left out of the playoffs last year gave them an edge this year.

Maybe not even consciously.
 
#62      
GatorMcKlusky
We know why ND is steadfast is remaining an independent. It's not who you play, it's when you play them, as the old sports betting axiom goes. They always played USC in Los Angeles the week after the UCLA game, when the Trojans are emotionally spent from playing their cross-town rival. Or played the Trojans in mid-October in South Bend when USC is in the midst of their conference play. USC wants to play ND next September, but the Irish are too scared to play them without the schedule in their favor. So what's ND's excuse for remaining independent besides a lack of courage? It's not the TV money - they could have made more money by joining the Big Ten years ago. If you really want to know what kind of institution Notre Dame is, you should read the book "Personal Foul: Coach Joe Moore vs. the University of Notre Dame". No ethics or morals, just win at all costs and have the Chicago media in your pocket to cover your tracks.
 
#64      
the juiceman cometh
bluemountain said:
I kind of get why ND fans are upset, but let's get real....based on the AP rankings Alabama beat #2, #14, #25, #28 and barely lost to #8 and had a bad loss to FSU. They finished the regular season at 10-2 and we have been told that the conference playoff result wouldn't count against them. ND beat #16, #22 and #31 and lost close ones to #7 and #10. They also finished 10-2. Bama has the best wins and the worst loss. IMO, the fact they have better wins should play in their favor and explains why they are in and the Crying Irish are out.
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Sure but let's be realistic, the SEC's AP rankings are highly overinflated. Mizzou is not a top 25 team. They went 8-4 and not one team they beat had a winning record this season. We have a better argument to be ranked than Mizzou. Vandy beat nobody (except Mizzou) and Tennessee beat nobody (except Vandy).

I think the thing about the conference championship not counting against them is complete bunk too. For one, BYU got moved down based on their conference championship loss. So it's not internally consistent. Second, the thing about the Bama situation is that the strongest argument for their inclusion was their beating UGA over three months ago. They then not only lost, but got steamrolled by, that same team. In what world should that not provide additional context to their resume? I think you have to draw the inevitable conclusion that one of these two things is true: either 1) UGA was not as good early in the season as they became later on, and as they are now, or 2) Alabama is not as good a team now as it was on September 27. Either way, that should impact Bama's resume. Either their signature win is no longer as impressive, or they have regressed as a team.
 
#65      
bluemountain
the juiceman cometh said:
Sure but let's be realistic, the SEC's AP rankings are highly overinflated. Mizzou is not a top 25 team. They went 8-4 and not one team they beat had a winning record this season. We have a better argument to be ranked than Mizzou. Vandy beat nobody (except Mizzou) and Tennessee beat nobody (except Vandy).

I think the thing about the conference championship not counting against them is complete bunk too. For one, BYU got moved down based on their conference championship loss. So it's not internally consistent. Second, the thing about the Bama situation is that the strongest argument for their inclusion was their beating UGA over three months ago. They then not only lost, but got steamrolled by, that same team. In what world should that not provide additional context to their resume? I think you have to draw the inevitable conclusion that one of these two things is true: either 1) UGA was not as good early in the season as they became later on, and as they are now, or 2) Alabama is not as good a team now as it was on September 27. Either way, that should impact Bama's resume. Either their signature win is no longer as impressive, or they have regressed as a team.
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TBH, neither team deserves to have a chance to play for the Natty; neither does Oklahoma or Tulane or JMU. What this year has shown is that 12 teams is too many - I know this will never happen but the NCAA should reduce the size of the playoff down to 8 teams. It's hard to imagine that in any particular year there are more than 8 teams with a real shot at winning it all; most years there won't even be 8.
 
#66      
Mr. Tibbs
bluemountain said:
TBH, neither team deserves to have a chance to play for the Natty; neither does Oklahoma or Tulane or JMU. What this year has shown is that 12 teams is too many - I know this will never happen but the NCAA should reduce the size of the playoff down to 8 teams. It's hard to imagine that in any particular year there are more than 8 teams with a real shot at winning it all; most years there won't even be 8.
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Im a fan of going to 16

its not about teams 9-16 having a real chance, its about the drama and excitement all the games create.
once you accept the money, the TV networks control the shots . this is no surprise.
The conferences arent going to give the money back, as the Genie is out of the bottle

its the same reason ALL 4 major sports have increased their own playoffs the last 15 years. its the MONEY

should the NCAA hoops tourney reduce to 32 ? , as lets face it, seeds 9-16 in all the 4 brackets have no real chance of winning 5 in a row either
 
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#68      
lstewart53x3
the juiceman cometh said:
Sure but let's be realistic, the SEC's AP rankings are highly overinflated. Mizzou is not a top 25 team. They went 8-4 and not one team they beat had a winning record this season. We have a better argument to be ranked than Mizzou. Vandy beat nobody (except Mizzou) and Tennessee beat nobody (except Vandy).
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I don’t want to be too big of an SEC homer, especially on a B1G message board and believe me, I am a B1G guy. But the SEC is objectively a good football conference.

KFord, which has no SEC bias, puts Missouri at #22, Vandy at #15, and Tennessee at #20.

Alabama has wins over the #6, #15, #20, #22, #23, and #25 teams in the country according to KFord. That’s 6 top 25 wins.

How many does Notre Dame have? One. #11 USC.

That’s an impressive resume, even with 3 losses.

Now, I agree with you that BYU should have been in. Over Miami. Since Miami also only had one T25 KFord win (over #3 Notre Dame).
 
#70      
lstewart53x3
Okay, this is officially the last point I’ll make about the resume’s of Alabama, Notre Dame, Miami, and BYU.

If we were to split the rankings up into a Quad system similar to basketball without making it overly complicated between home and away, but just:

Quad 1: 1-30
Quad 2: 31-60
Quad 3: 61-90
Quad 4: 90-136

Here’s how their resumes shake out using KFord:

Alabama:

Q1: 6-3
Q2-4: Undefeated

Notre Dame:

Q1: 1-2
Q2-4: Undefeated

Miami:

Q1: 2-1
Q2: 1 loss
Q3-4: Undefeated

BYU:

Q1: 2-2
Q2-4: Undefeated

Like I’ve said from the beginning, BYU is the team that got screwed, not Notre Dame.

Notre Dame has just won Q1 win.

Miami has two, along with the head to head against Notre Dame.

BUT Miami has the only Q2 loss of the bunch (granted, it’s to #31 Louisville who just missed the top 30 cut).

BYU, on the other hand, has the same number of Q1 wins as Miami, twice as many as Notre Dame, and no Q2 losses. They should have been in.

Alabama. Insane resume. Frigging insane. 9 Q1 games. 6 Q1 wins.

Ohio St has 5 Q1 wins (5-1), Indiana had 4 Q1 wins (4-0), Oregon had 4 (4-1), Texas Tech had 3 (two of which were against the same team, BYU), and they had by far the worst loss (Q2 loss to #43 Arizona St).

So Alabama had the most losses, but also maybe the most good wins. They earned their spot.
 
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#71      
the juiceman cometh
lstewart53x3 said:
I don’t want to be too big of an SEC homer, especially on a B1G message board and believe me, I am a B1G guy. But the SEC is objectively a good football conference.

KFord, which has no SEC bias, puts Missouri at #22, Vandy at #15, and Tennessee at #20.

Alabama has wins over the #6, #15, #20, #22, #23, and #25 teams in the country according to KFord. That’s 6 top 25 wins.

How many does Notre Dame have? One. #11 USC.

That’s an impressive resume, even with 3 losses.

Now, I agree with you that BYU should have been in. Over Miami. Since Miami also only had one T25 KFord win (over #3 Notre Dame).
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https://twitter.com/x/status/1863319690308734976

**cues Curb Your Enthusiasm theme song**

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Larry David Reaction GIF
 
#72      
lstewart53x3
the juiceman cometh said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1863319690308734976

**cues Curb Your Enthusiasm theme song**

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Larry David Reaction GIF
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That’s fair and again, I’m a B1G guy, so I feel odd arguing for Alabama/the SEC here. Usually, I’d be right there with you. I just personally believe this year with their schedule and their wins, Alabama earned their spot in the playoff.

To my original comment, when I say “no SEC bias”, what I mean is:

KFord isn’t created by ESPN/affiliated with the SEC in the same way that FPI and SP+ are, so it doesn’t have bias in the same way those metrics might.

Of course, a portion of all advanced analytic models are based on recruiting rankings and as I’ve touched on plenty of times on this site, they’re flawed, and they tend to favor programs with the biggest fan bases (to sell subscriptions I imagine), which can favor the SEC. And that can poison the well a bit. But I’m not sure that it poisons the well enough to say the advanced metrics like KFord are not useful.

That said, I hope the B1G absolutely slaughters the SEC in the postseason this year, especially one B1G vs SEC match up in particular.
 
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#74      
EyeoftheIllini
IlliniBrave75 said:
I understand Miami being ahead of them, as they won the head to head matchup. Alabama has the worst loss between them and ND. FSU only won two conference games and two buy games after beating Bama!

If Illinois had only lost to Indiana and OSU, how would we feel if Alabama got in over us? I imagine most here would be fuming!
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Yes, AL had a bad loss on the road. They also had by far the best win of the two teams — on the road against Georgia. And AL played a tougher schedule. It is close, but I’d give it to AL and I dislike them more than I dislike ND. Either way, I fully disagree with the idea that AL’s loss in CC game should downgrade them.

As to the Illini side of your post, not quite equivalent since Miami and Texas A&M aren’t OSU and Indiana, but I get your point. But let’s flip it. How would Illini fans feel if we had only lost to Oregon (switching them on and Indiana off schedule for equivalency purposes) and Penn St (again, added to be more or less equivalent to FSU), but beaten Ohio St. Then in conf championship game we lost to Ohio St, and Notre Dame without having to play a CC game made playoffs over Illinois?
 
#75      
the juiceman cometh
EyeoftheIllini said:
Yes, AL had a bad loss on the road. They also had by far the best win of the two teams — on the road against Georgia. And AL played a tougher schedule. It is close, but I’d give it to AL and I dislike them more than I dislike ND. Either way, I fully disagree with the idea that AL’s loss in CC game should downgrade them.

As to the Illini side of your post, not quite equivalent since Miami and Texas A&M aren’t OSU and Indiana, but I get your point. But let’s flip it. How would Illini fans feel if we had only lost to Oregon (switching them on and Indiana off schedule for equivalency purposes) and Penn St (again, added to be more or less equivalent to FSU), but beaten Ohio St. Then in conf championship game we lost to Ohio St, and Notre Dame without having to play a CC game made playoffs over Illinois?
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Lol the equivalent of Bama's loss to FSU would not be Penn St. It'd be Rutgers at best. FSU went 2-6 in the ACC. And who did Bama beat that's equivalent to Oregon?
 
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