Pregame: Illinois at Penn State, Saturday, January 3rd, 6:00pm CT, BTN

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#26      
This is where Penn State chose to play a Big Ten home game so it should be considered a true away game. I don't know if it is, but it should. Kenpom calls it "semi-away".
Kenpom would probably call the Bryce Jordan Center "semi-away" too if they are possibly worse than Southern.
 
#28      
I'd frame this game like the Ohio State game. Not a must-win, but lose and the Illini are close to effectively eliminated from conference champ contention. This should be an easy win, but we have not won an away game against Penn State (I'm counting this as away) since 2020.
Much bigger loss than OSU would have been. 34 vs 125 in KenPom.
 
#29      
You have very insightful, intelligent, and thorough posts. I'm sure that I'm not the only one that appreciates your dedication and reads the entire post (most of the time ;)). But I completely disagree with this. Historically, Penn State should/would be the last team we should try shaking off anything from the Duke loss (worst in school history?). I'm down for it, just not against PSU...
kryponite.gif
 
#30      
Plus the fact we’re playing at the Palestra reminds me of that epic collapse at Rec Hall 2 years ago. I know it’s a different scenario…but sorta similar, so hopefully we just play our game and cruise.
The good news is this isn’t in that Cracker Jack Box. Philly should be much more of a neutral site game.
 
#36      
@Iowa will be tough. Pretty important game for seeding.
To elaborate on my own comment, as of now, we have just 8 Q1 games remaining (subject to change). To get a 3 seed, we probably need to win ~5 of those 8, along with doing well in the remaining 10. A 2 seed probably requires ~6 of the 8.

So @Iowa will be a hugely important (and difficult) game.
 
#37      
To elaborate on my own comment, as of now, we have just 8 Q1 games remaining (subject to change). To get a 3 seed, we probably need to win ~5 of those 8, along with doing well in the remaining 10. A 2 seed probably requires ~6 of the 8.

So @Iowa will be a hugely important (and difficult) game.

2024-25: 8-10 Q1: 6 seed
2023-24: 8-6 Q1 3 seed
2022-23: 2-11 Q1 9 seed
2021-22: 6-6 Q1 4 seed
2020-21: 12-5 Q1 1 seed

2025-26: 3-3
 
#39      
2024-25: 8-10 Q1: 6 seed
2023-24: 8-6 Q1 3 seed
2022-23: 2-11 Q1 9 seed
2021-22: 6-6 Q1 4 seed
2020-21: 12-5 Q1 1 seed

2025-26: 3-3
Not to take this thread too far off topic, but that appears to back up my gut feeling.

If we go 1-1 in Q1 games in the B1G tourney, that would be 4-4.

Then:

- 5-3 in the regular season Q1 games gets us to 9-7. That’s 3 seed territory.

- 6-2 would get us to 10-6, which gets us into the 2 seed range.

Now we just need @Fighter of the Nightman to rank the remaining Q1 games in order of difficulty to know which one’s were most likely to grab.
 
#42      
I really wish that a 1 seed was “still possible”, and I realize it still is, but the path to it is almost gone. Losing to Nebby at home may have cost us a chance at the STL - Chi - Indy path? I don’t see how we get that with both Purdue and scUM above us? We for sure can still get any seed, but a 1 seems to have sailed?
 
#46      
The Palestra (seats ~ 8700) is slightly larger than PSU's Rec Hall, which seats ~ 6500 for b-ball. It's ~ the size of Hinkle Fieldhouse. PSU has held a "home" game there annually since Jan. '20 with the exception of the COVID years. Looking at the photos it has been overwhelmingly PSU fans in the past and attendance has been in the low 6000s the past couple years.

We're headed there Saturday; can't wait to see a game in that palace of college hoops. Got inside once when it was empty and I was visiting Philly. Gorgeous gym. Am looking forward to (1) orange script unis (we're still in the 12-days-of-Christmas window so I can wish); (2) old-school ambiance; and (3) a solid Illini win.
 
#49      
The Palestra (seats ~ 8700) is slightly larger than PSU's Rec Hall, which seats ~ 6500 for b-ball. It's ~ the size of Hinkle Fieldhouse. PSU has held a "home" game there annually since Jan. '20 with the exception of the COVID years. Looking at the photos it has been overwhelmingly PSU fans in the past and attendance has been in the low 6000s the past couple years.

We're headed there Saturday; can't wait to see a game in that palace of college hoops. Got inside once when it was empty and I was visiting Philly. Gorgeous gym. Am looking forward to (1) orange script unis (we're still in the 12-days-of-Christmas window so I can wish); (2) old-school ambiance; and (3) a solid Illini win.
Great venue. I went to grad school at Penn and I am disappointed to be missing the game.
 
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