Illini Football 2026

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#1      

Dan

Dan
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Welcome to the Illini Football thread 🏈

Tickets Info | Schedule

2026 Illini Football
Sat, Sept 5____UAB
Sat, Sept 12___Duke
Sat, Sept 19___Southern Illinois
Sat, Sept 26___at Ohio State
Sat, Oct 3_____Purdue (Homecoming)
Sat, Oct 10____at Michigan State
Sat, Oct 17____---bye---
Sat, Oct 24____Oregon
Sat, Oct 31____at Maryland
Sat, Nov 7_____Nebraska
Sat, Nov 14____at UCLA
Sat, Nov 21____Iowa
Sat, Nov 28____at Northwestern
 
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#2      
Mr. Tibbs
One Second 80S GIF by Jukebox Saints
 
#6      
Fighter of the Nightman
Might be a dumb question, but I'll ask it anyway of our insiders ... what are the odds we could experience an infusion of cash anywhere in the stratosphere of what Indiana has received? I would argue our donors have a proof of concept from Bret now, and we very well might be at the point where any "next jump up" is just quite simply going to require a transformative increase in our NIL. We've proven we can find hidden gem talents, develop players, coach them up, etc. to the point where we have just won 9+ games two years in a row and 8+ games in three of the last four years. While that would have been unimaginable not too long ago, I do wonder if we are at the point where if any high-dollar donors are starting to dream of a CFP appearance ... could it be we are at a sort of "ceiling" without an infusion of some truly elite difference makers at some positions, and the donors could be excited enough by that prospect that we will see a large increase in our NIL funds??

I mean, I get that money doesn't grow on trees, but this is very different from Bret/Josh trying to fundraise in 2023 ... Bret and Co. have proven themselves, full-stop, and there is good reason to believe that he could get us in the CFP with the right personnel. 🤷‍♂️
 
#8      
Fighter of the Nightman
Illiniaaron said:
I don’t like these seasons with five conference road games. On the other hand all the non-cons are at home.
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I see your point, but we couldn't reasonably ask for a better road slate, IMO.

Ohio State - This is a "count-as-a-loss" game where you play with house money and go for a 2007-esque shocker. You should expect to have at least one road game per year like this, so no biggie!
Michigan State - This one could be tough if Fitz has them up and running and their fan base is re-engaged. However, I will take it over trips to Oregon, PSU, Michigan, Washington, Nebraska, etc. which we have had in recent years.
Maryland - We won there with a far worse team vs. a better Maryland team, and it's one of the least intimidating atmospheres in the conference year in and year out.
UCLA - Not sure how good the Bruins are and it's always hard traveling out West, but the Rose Bowl has literally been a neutral site game during every single one of UCLA's home Big Ten games so far, and I am sure the West Coast Illini Nation will show up in big numbers for a chance to watch the boys play in the Rose Bowl!
Northwestern - Unless we have TOTALLY tanked by this point in the season, I confidently predict that Northwestern's shiny new stadium will be flooded with orange-clad fans who are curious to check it out ... this one is never a true "road" game as far as home field advantage or crowd factors go!

Then, as you said, we get Duke at home and some of our other bigger tests (e.g., Iowa and Oregon) at home, as well. I think it's very reasonable to steal two of the Maryland/UCLA/Northwestern road games, so that gets us to 5 total wins if we assume we can take care of UAB, SIU and Purdue at home ... and yes, I think it's hilarious to include Purdue in that category, but here we are! I also think it could be reasonable to expect these guys to defend our home field enough to get two wins out of the Duke/Iowa/Nebraska home games, so that gets us to 7 wins.

There seem to be a lot more potential "toss-up" games next year, but if you go by the ones I laid out above, our quest to 8+ wins again will rely on (A) stealing one more road win out of Maryland/UCLA/Northwestern/MSU and/or (B) taking down one more opponent at home out of Iowa/Nebraska/Duke/Oregon. Either way, I think it's an exciting schedule! Praying that the Iowa home game is in an earlier month with good weather so I can go with my friends!
 
#9      
lstewart53x3
Fighter of the Nightman said:
I see your point, but we couldn't reasonably ask for a better road slate, IMO.

Ohio State - This is a "count-as-a-loss" game where you play with house money and go for a 2007-esque shocker. You should expect to have at least one road game per year like this, so no biggie!
Michigan State - This one could be tough if Fitz has them up and running and their fan base is re-engaged. However, I will take it over trips to Oregon, PSU, Michigan, Washington, Nebraska, etc. which we have had in recent years.
Maryland - We won there with a far worse team vs. a better Maryland team, and it's one of the least intimidating atmospheres in the conference year in and year out.
UCLA - Not sure how good the Bruins are and it's always hard traveling out West, but the Rose Bowl has literally been a neutral site game during every single one of UCLA's home Big Ten games so far, and I am sure the West Coast Illini Nation will show up in big numbers for a chance to watch the boys play in the Rose Bowl!
Northwestern - Unless we have TOTALLY tanked by this point in the season, I confidently predict that Northwestern's shiny new stadium will be flooded with orange-clad fans who are curious to check it out ... this one is never a true "road" game as far as home field advantage or crowd factors go!

Then, as you said, we get Duke at home and some of our other bigger tests (e.g., Iowa and Oregon) at home, as well. I think it's very reasonable to steal two of the Maryland/UCLA/Northwestern road games, so that gets us to 5 total wins if we assume we can take care of UAB, SIU and Purdue at home ... and yes, I think it's hilarious to include Purdue in that category, but here we are! I also think it could be reasonable to expect these guys to defend our home field enough to get two wins out of the Duke/Iowa/Nebraska home games, so that gets us to 7 wins.

There seem to be a lot more potential "toss-up" games next year, but if you go by the ones I laid out above, our quest to 8+ wins again will rely on (A) stealing one more road win out of Maryland/UCLA/Northwestern/MSU and/or (B) taking down one more opponent at home out of Iowa/Nebraska/Duke/Oregon. Either way, I think it's an exciting schedule! Praying that the Iowa home game is in an earlier month with good weather so I can go with my friends!
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Not to take anything away from your analysis, but it’s just so difficult to predict the schedule before rosters are finalized.

Even then, this season was supposed to be an easier schedule, but the teams we played were much better than anticipated.

Wisconsin obviously underperformed (outside of our game), but on average, the teams we played finished the season ranked 17 spots higher in KFord than where they started.
 
#10      
mhuml32
Fighter of the Nightman said:
Might be a dumb question, but I'll ask it anyway of our insiders ... what are the odds we could experience an infusion of cash anywhere in the stratosphere of what Indiana has received? I would argue our donors have a proof of concept from Bret now, and we very well might be at the point where any "next jump up" is just quite simply going to require a transformative increase in our NIL. We've proven we can find hidden gem talents, develop players, coach them up, etc. to the point where we have just won 9+ games two years in a row and 8+ games in three of the last four years. While that would have been unimaginable not too long ago, I do wonder if we are at the point where if any high-dollar donors are starting to dream of a CFP appearance ... could it be we are at a sort of "ceiling" without an infusion of some truly elite difference makers at some positions, and the donors could be excited enough by that prospect that we will see a large increase in our NIL funds??

I mean, I get that money doesn't grow on trees, but this is very different from Bret/Josh trying to fundraise in 2023 ... Bret and Co. have proven themselves, full-stop, and there is good reason to believe that he could get us in the CFP with the right personnel. 🤷‍♂️
Click to expand...


What is the evidence that Indiana has received such a stratospheric jump in funding?
 
#11      
the juiceman cometh
Looking at this schedule, you can pencil in at least 2 wins in the non-con, think you can pencil in a win against Purdue, and you look at that road slate of and say, Maryland is unlikely to improve to the point where you worry about what they do this offseason, and pencil that in too. So that's 4 wins right there. MSU and UCLA are likely wins but also in the "who knows, maybe the new coach knocks it out of the park right away" category and Northwestern is a likely win so I think you say we should get at least 2 more out of that group. That's 6. I was going to say that's the floor, but to add some room for uncertainty, in case we have a terrible offseason, I think the floor is 5.

The remaining games, OSU and Oregon are probably losses. Duke, Iowa, and Nebraska are likely competitive games and will depend a lot on how we and they do this offseason. So I think the ceiling is 10 (though getting to the ceiling would be tough).

Where we land within that range is entirely dependent on how this offseason goes. If we can get to at least 8 wins again that would be a great season, and keep momentum going.
 
#13      
Fighter of the Nightman
lstewart53x3 said:
Not to take anything away from your analysis, but it’s just so difficult to predict the schedule before rosters are finalized.

Even then, this season was supposed to be an easier schedule, but the teams we played were much better than anticipated.

Wisconsin obviously underperformed (outside of our game), but on average, the teams we played finished the season ranked 17 spots higher in KFord than where they started.
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For sure, which is sort of why I tried to use less season-specific reasoning, such as pointing out that the stadiums we are traveling to (besides OSU) have not been in the upper tier of hardest places to play lately. We definitely have too many unknowns to predict too much about the nitty gritty matchups.
 
#14      
mhuml32
Fighter of the Nightman said:
Just going by my memory of things I have seen on here, where insiders (or others) have suggested that Indiana got a lot more NIL in the offseason and snagged some difference makers in the portal.
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I think the winning is blinding us to some faulty causation = correlation beliefs and ignoring countering data points.

- Their transfer class last year only brought in 3 4-star transfers (Coogan, Mendoza, and Knighten)
- Other transfers that have turned into stars (Daley, Wyatt, etc.) have no stories on their 247 or Rivals to imply there was heavy competition for their services
- A good chunk of their guys in '24 for JMU followers, which is traditionally more of a schematic fit than financial slugging
- Their team's cumulative roster talent is going to break Bud Elliott's blue chip ratio formula
- They have yet to bring in a top-25 HS class, showing they rather spend money on the portal


It's guaranteed that Indiana is bringing in more money, but the context is important. I've been harping on this in previous threads because folks love to hype up how Illinois (or other schools) are bringing in more money than ever before, but so is everyone else! The hard part is you have to maintain the pace of the entire P4 landscape and annually grow at a much faster rate. Think of it as the stock market; SP 500 went up ~17% this year. Every program is a financial advisor but needs to grow at a faster rate than the SP 500 to justify their worth.

Keeping with the stock market analogy - Indiana's approach is simple in one way and bending economic theory at its will in another. They've decided it's worthwhile to spend whatever it takes to bring in a blue chip QB. They brought in Mendoza in 2025 and they'll likely bring in Hoover for 2026. That's the simple (and expensive!) part. Then, they seek out cost savings with the majority of their other additions, but their strategy is to out-scout everyone else. This is financially easy, but strategically impossible. This is the part that I still trust that regression will swing on them. Every other program is finding a mix of success-failure in the portal in ways that Indiana has not in the past two seasons. The first season made sense because Ciggy knew all of the guys he wanted and had a non-economic advantage over the competition. The second season was an even bigger success, without the advantage.

I'll keep suggesting that all of the programmatic questions about Indiana on this board are misplaced and should be directed to Texas Tech. They are the program spending big money to acquire talent in ways that directly challenges the blue bloods. Indiana is challenging the system in more mysterious ways. They are bringing in a top QB and then performing a combination of scheme/development/scouting that is many multiples better than every other program that seems impossible to replicate (and will be impossible for Indiana to continue replicating themselves unless Ciggy has his own copy of Grays Sports Almanac).
 
#15      
blackdog
mhuml32 said:
I think the winning is blinding us to some faulty causation = correlation beliefs and ignoring countering data points.

- Their transfer class last year only brought in 3 4-star transfers (Coogan, Mendoza, and Knighten)
- Other transfers that have turned into stars (Daley, Wyatt, etc.) have no stories on their 247 or Rivals to imply there was heavy competition for their services
- A good chunk of their guys in '24 for JMU followers, which is traditionally more of a schematic fit than financial slugging
- Their team's cumulative roster talent is going to break Bud Elliott's blue chip ratio formula
- They have yet to bring in a top-25 HS class, showing they rather spend money on the portal


It's guaranteed that Indiana is bringing in more money, but the context is important. I've been harping on this in previous threads because folks love to hype up how Illinois (or other schools) are bringing in more money than ever before, but so is everyone else! The hard part is you have to maintain the pace of the entire P4 landscape and annually grow at a much faster rate. Think of it as the stock market; SP 500 went up ~17% this year. Every program is a financial advisor but needs to grow at a faster rate than the SP 500 to justify their worth.

Keeping with the stock market analogy - Indiana's approach is simple in one way and bending economic theory at its will in another. They've decided it's worthwhile to spend whatever it takes to bring in a blue chip QB. They brought in Mendoza in 2025 and they'll likely bring in Hoover for 2026. That's the simple (and expensive!) part. Then, they seek out cost savings with the majority of their other additions, but their strategy is to out-scout everyone else. This is financially easy, but strategically impossible. This is the part that I still trust that regression will swing on them. Every other program is finding a mix of success-failure in the portal in ways that Indiana has not in the past two seasons. The first season made sense because Ciggy knew all of the guys he wanted and had a non-economic advantage over the competition. The second season was an even bigger success, without the advantage.

I'll keep suggesting that all of the programmatic questions about Indiana on this board are misplaced and should be directed to Texas Tech. They are the program spending big money to acquire talent in ways that directly challenges the blue bloods. Indiana is challenging the system in more mysterious ways. They are bringing in a top QB and then performing a combination of scheme/development/scouting that is many multiples better than every other program that seems impossible to replicate (and will be impossible for Indiana to continue replicating themselves unless Ciggy has his own copy of Grays Sports Almanac).
Click to expand...

One of Cignetti's strength has ALWAYS been identifying under the radar talent that fits the system and are winners. Its hard to replicate because throughout his career he's been just better at it than almost anyone else. He was the one that got both Phillip Rivers and Russel Wilson to NC State. He was also recruiting coordinator for Alabama from 07-10.
 
#17      
Mr. Tibbs
mhuml32 said:
I think the winning is blinding us to some faulty causation = correlation beliefs and ignoring countering data points.

- Their transfer class last year only brought in 3 4-star transfers (Coogan, Mendoza, and Knighten)
- Other transfers that have turned into stars (Daley, Wyatt, etc.) have no stories on their 247 or Rivals to imply there was heavy competition for their services
- A good chunk of their guys in '24 for JMU followers, which is traditionally more of a schematic fit than financial slugging
- Their team's cumulative roster talent is going to break Bud Elliott's blue chip ratio formula
- They have yet to bring in a top-25 HS class, showing they rather spend money on the portal


It's guaranteed that Indiana is bringing in more money, but the context is important. I've been harping on this in previous threads because folks love to hype up how Illinois (or other schools) are bringing in more money than ever before, but so is everyone else! The hard part is you have to maintain the pace of the entire P4 landscape and annually grow at a much faster rate. Think of it as the stock market; SP 500 went up ~17% this year. Every program is a financial advisor but needs to grow at a faster rate than the SP 500 to justify their worth.

Keeping with the stock market analogy - Indiana's approach is simple in one way and bending economic theory at its will in another. They've decided it's worthwhile to spend whatever it takes to bring in a blue chip QB. They brought in Mendoza in 2025 and they'll likely bring in Hoover for 2026. That's the simple (and expensive!) part. Then, they seek out cost savings with the majority of their other additions, but their strategy is to out-scout everyone else. This is financially easy, but strategically impossible. This is the part that I still trust that regression will swing on them. Every other program is finding a mix of success-failure in the portal in ways that Indiana has not in the past two seasons. The first season made sense because Ciggy knew all of the guys he wanted and had a non-economic advantage over the competition. The second season was an even bigger success, without the advantage.

I'll keep suggesting that all of the programmatic questions about Indiana on this board are misplaced and should be directed to Texas Tech. They are the program spending big money to acquire talent in ways that directly challenges the blue bloods. Indiana is challenging the system in more mysterious ways. They are bringing in a top QB and then performing a combination of scheme/development/scouting that is many multiples better than every other program that seems impossible to replicate (and will be impossible for Indiana to continue replicating themselves unless Ciggy has his own copy of Grays Sports Almanac).
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agree

there is no evidence that IU is doing this the way Texas Tech or Texas A&M is. All indications are Cig is doing it the old fashioned way (great scouting) and has simply gotten a little luck along the way. The QB part is key. TDV & Luke are proof as well with that. What we simply havent had since Walters left is a real kick a$$ defense. Indiana does .

If we had had 2022's Defense with last years or this years team, we win 1 or 2 more games each year, and likely make the CFP at least once .
you need a
1. rock solid QB (A or A- grade)
2. above average O Line ( B+)
3. a couple decent WR and RB's (B+)
4. real good D (A- or B+)

its getting all at the same time that has allowed Cig to do what hes done. We havent .
Our D and OLine have been average at best since 2023
 
#19      
Fighter of the Nightman
Ya know what would be cool? Colorado has a relatively uninspiring Rivalry Weekend opponent in the Big XII in Kansas State. Kansas has a totally random Rivalry Week opponent in Utah. Colorado and Nebraska used to always play on the Friday after Thanksgiving before Nebraska moved to the Big Ten, and Nebby fans STILL talk down about the fact that they "have to play Iowa," even though the Hawkeyes have owned them. Entitlement apparently takes decades of evidence to wear off, lol.

I vote Kansas naturally plays KSU on Rivalry Weekend, and Nebraska picks its rivalry with CU back up and has that as their Black Friday game every year. We then kick Northwestern to the curb and play them in October or something, and we then offer Iowa a home as our protected Rivalry Week opponent. All in favor say aye.

EDIT: The Northwestern last-weekend-of-the-year thing is not that engrained and pretty forced. From scanning Wikipedia, our final opponent of the regular season was...

2012 - 2025: Northwestern
2011: Minnesota
2009 - 2010: Fresno State
1999 - 2008: Northwestern
1997 - 1998: Michigan State
1993 - 1996: Wisconsin
1991 - 1992: Michigan State
1985 - 1990: Northwestern
1984: Indiana
1983: Northwestern
1982: Indiana
1981: Northwestern
1980: Indiana
1979: Northwestern
1978: Minnesota
1973 - 1977: Northwestern
1967 - 1972: Iowa
1965 - 1966: Northwestern
1960 - 1964: Michigan State
 
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#20      
Se Il Illini
illini80 said:
While I think this will be true, until we see who’s coming and who’s going it’s hard to make many predictions. True of coaches as well as players. I will never take what we have for granted tho. The quality of football being played is the best in my lifetime.
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Been listening and watching since the early 60's. I second your comments. Illinois is fortunate to have Brian Barnhart, and Jim Turpin was the man.
 
#23      
Ryllini
Fighter of the Nightman said:
Might be a dumb question, but I'll ask it anyway of our insiders ... what are the odds we could experience an infusion of cash anywhere in the stratosphere of what Indiana has received? I would argue our donors have a proof of concept from Bret now, and we very well might be at the point where any "next jump up" is just quite simply going to require a transformative increase in our NIL. We've proven we can find hidden gem talents, develop players, coach them up, etc. to the point where we have just won 9+ games two years in a row and 8+ games in three of the last four years. While that would have been unimaginable not too long ago, I do wonder if we are at the point where if any high-dollar donors are starting to dream of a CFP appearance ... could it be we are at a sort of "ceiling" without an infusion of some truly elite difference makers at some positions, and the donors could be excited enough by that prospect that we will see a large increase in our NIL funds??

I mean, I get that money doesn't grow on trees, but this is very different from Bret/Josh trying to fundraise in 2023 ... Bret and Co. have proven themselves, full-stop, and there is good reason to believe that he could get us in the CFP with the right personnel. 🤷‍♂️
Click to expand...
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money seems to grow on trees at Tech.
 
#24      
ChiTown
JKR said:
It's not clear to me how much of that alleged $60M is NIL, vs other dollars for the football program. Do we know what our total expenditure is for football?
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I for one only answered the question about funding and not about NIL.
 
#25      
STLini25
JKR said:
It's not clear to me how much of that alleged $60M is NIL, vs other dollars for the football program. Do we know what our total expenditure is for football?
Click to expand...
Their NIL from their operating budget is probably about $15M. Same as Illinois and most P4 schools.
 
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