Illinois unranked in final AP Poll, #25 in final Coaches Poll

[altgeld88]

How does Sagarin work again? I'm not going to get into a long debate over it, but it's odd to me that Illinois is #27 and Tennessee is #23 when according to these numbers, Tennessee had a weaker schedule than Illinois AND did worse in said schedule. Not to mention Illinois beat Tennessee. I just don't understand the algorithm.

College Football Ratings Page

Sagarin's ratings are weighted toward strength of schedule and margin of victory. I infer that the latter was a smidge stronger for Tennessee even though its SOS was lower than ours.

My point, however, is that you can barely shim a cigarette paper between the two teams (80.32 v. 79.28) just as there's no great discernible difference between #21 Michigan and #30 Virginia. Big difference between # 1 and #10. Smaller difference between #11 and #20. Little difference between #21 and #30.

The same delta exists between #1 Indiana and #10 Penn State as does between #21 Michigan and #79 UCLA.

Something something Pareto distribution.

 

[Calvin]

How does Sagarin work again? I'm not going to get into a long debate over it, but it's odd to me that Illinois is #27 and Tennessee is #23 when according to these numbers, Tennessee had a weaker schedule than Illinois AND did worse in said schedule. Not to mention Illinois beat Tennessee. I just don't understand the algorithm.

I believe (someone can correct me if they know more) he uses standard statistical measures (e.g. ordinary least squares method for score differential), rather than the highly advanced metrics a lot of sites use now. You can play a weaker slate of teams and beat a couple of them by larger margins and come out ahead in his rankings. Or have the a similar average but have a great game against a stronger opponent, which moves your overall metric more. Sagarin was big when it came out, but I think his method is long out of date. It's still pretty good directionally.

Btw, Indiana 5-0 vs top 10 is crazy good.

 

[Piotyr]

FWIW: Sagarin. Not much difference between #21 and #30. PSU's gotta be the highest-ranked 7-6 team in history.

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One more time this season I want to reiterate...why did the SEC get 5 top 9 playoff teams?

 

[ptgrd23]

Overall satisfied with season. Nice bowl win vs Tennessee.

Only game I think we should have won that we lost is @ Wisconsin. Win that game and we are easily top 20 at 10-3

 

[HailtotheChief]

Those fumbles vs usc inside the 10 twice kept us from being around 20. You beat them by 2 tds then USC wouldnt be above us.

 

[altgeld88]

I believe (someone can correct me if they know more) he uses standard statistical measures (e.g. ordinary least squares method for score differential), rather than the highly advanced metrics a lot of sites use now. You can play a weaker slate of teams and beat a couple of them by larger margins and come out ahead in his rankings. Or have the a similar average but have a great game against a stronger opponent, which moves your overall metric more. Sagarin was big when it came out, but I think his method is long out of date. It's still pretty good directionally.

Btw, Indiana 5-0 vs top 10 is crazy good.

Sincere question: how can a poll compiled using sports "journalist" picks or the tallies of coaches who can't possibly do their jobs competently and watch college football games in-season possibly be a better predictor of team strength?

I don't pay much attention to what's out there. What method has more descriptive power than Sagarin? Next season I'd like to use whatever is better.

 

[Old.Edgy]

So many bowl results went against us. It felt like every single bowl was a competitor for a slot in the 20's winning, usually beating a team ranked too high to fall below us. I thought SMU and Washington would snake us too, I'm actually surprised we got so close.

Houston-LSU, Iowa-Vandy, North Texas-SDSU, Virginia-Mizzou, also all really close games that sneak us in at 25 if they tilted the other way.

Yet we are ahead of UW who beat us.... go figure...

 

[Navy_illini]

Curt Cignetti Releases His Final Coaches' Poll Top 25 Ballot

With the College Football Playoff officially over, Indiana coach Curt Cignetti has unveiled his final top 25 rankings for the 2025 season. Indiana started the season ranked No. 20 in the country. It didn't take long for Fernando Mendoza and the Hoosiers to put their opponents on notice. However, ...

www.yahoo.com

I agree a lot with his ranking. He has us 16 shows a lot of respect

 

[IlliniKat91]

Curt Cignetti Releases His Final Coaches' Poll Top 25 Ballot

With the College Football Playoff officially over, Indiana coach Curt Cignetti has unveiled his final top 25 rankings for the 2025 season. Indiana started the season ranked No. 20 in the country. It didn't take long for Fernando Mendoza and the Hoosiers to put their opponents on notice. However, ...

www.yahoo.com

I agree a lot with his ranking. He has us 16 shows a lot of respect

The tears of the SEC fans upset the didn't include/didn't rank them highly enough are delicious.