NBA Draft

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#51      
the juiceman cometh
#52      
Scoregasm
the juiceman cometh said:
Wagler up to #6 in USA Today's new mock draft: https://www.usatoday.com/story/spor...erson-cameron-boozer-aj-dybantsa/88411643007/

#13 to the Bulls in the new Bleacher Nation mock draft: https://www.bleachernation.com/nba/2026/01/29/2026-nba-mock-draft-2/

#9 on Tankathon: https://www.tankathon.com/

#7 on NBAdraft.net: https://www.nbadraft.net/nba-mock-drafts/

Think it's safe to say Wagler is clearly now an expected lottery-pick, trending towards top-10 pick if not already there.
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Absolutely great for him and us.....
 
#53      
Icy veins
lstewart53x3 said:
I assume it’ll continue being “first round go, second round stay”.

While they might make about the same amount in college:

1. It delays their second contract, which would be much larger than their first, by one year.

2. There’s no guarantee that coming back raises your draft stock. You’re just as likely to get selected lower the following year as you are to get selected higher.
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Here’s the flip side of this though: you say that there’s no guarantee that coming back raises your draft stock, but there’s also no guarantee that a specific player ever makes it to a 2nd contract (about a third of first rounders never do). So, while I largely think the “first round go, second round stay” mentality is correct, I think you’ll start seeing more kids projected in the 20+ range staying in school to make another $3M before going pro. So far, Keaton’s projected higher than this though so it might not matter.
 
#54      
BalloonsTheElephant
Icy veins said:
Here’s the flip side of this though: you say that there’s no guarantee that coming back raises your draft stock, but there’s also no guarantee that a specific player ever makes it to a 2nd contract (about a third of first rounders never do). So, while I largely think the “first round go, second round stay” mentality is correct, I think you’ll start seeing more kids projected in the 20+ range staying in school to make another $3M before going pro. So far, Keaton’s projected higher than this though so it might not matter.
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Specifically in Keaton's case, he probably couldn't top this season. The diamond in the rough story is gone, and the expectations are so high that it'd be almost impossible to recapture this amazing season he's had.

For the 20ish picks, it probably depends on your age. If you are a Junior, unless you plan on really breaking out, it's probably your ceiling and the NBA has the tape to know who you are. As a freshman, you have a couple years to move up, plus you still have the "potential" of being younger which the NBA values.
 
#55      
FreshlySqueezed
My insights here mostly come from Vecenie's Athletic article from yesterday.

For context, Toppin came back and got ~$3M. The 23rd pick made $3.2M and the 30th pick made $2.7M.

There are 15+ point guards all hoping to go in the first round. Given the value placed on smaller guards in the NBA, there won't be that many of them drafted. I suspect we'll see some people come back to school that will be a bit surprising, but the 2027 draft class is supposed to be weaker.

Unfortunately, Keaton is likely too good to come back.

"To say that Wagler’s stock has exploded over the last month would be an understatement. When I ranked him No. 11 on my board earlier this month, I got a couple of calls from NBA scouts telling me that they thought that was a bit aggressive. Their tune has changed. Most of the conversations I have now place Wagler in the No. 4 through No. 8 range, firmly entrenched with UNC’s Wilson and Houston’s Flemings as the next prospects to watch outside of the top three."

($)
www.nytimes.com

NBA Draft intel: AJ Dybantsa shows some flaws, Brayden Burries shines and more

This draft class looks incredibly deep. But how many top prospects will take NIL cash and wait until 2027?
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
 
#56      
the juiceman cometh
FreshlySqueezed said:
My insights here mostly come from Vecenie's Athletic article from yesterday.

For context, Toppin came back and got ~$3M. The 23rd pick made $3.2M and the 30th pick made $2.7M.

There are 15+ point guards all hoping to go in the first round. Given the value placed on smaller guards in the NBA, there won't be that many of them drafted. I suspect we'll see some people come back to school that will be a bit surprising, but the 2027 draft class is supposed to be weaker.

Unfortunately, Keaton is likely too good to come back.

"To say that Wagler’s stock has exploded over the last month would be an understatement. When I ranked him No. 11 on my board earlier this month, I got a couple of calls from NBA scouts telling me that they thought that was a bit aggressive. Their tune has changed. Most of the conversations I have now place Wagler in the No. 4 through No. 8 range, firmly entrenched with UNC’s Wilson and Houston’s Flemings as the next prospects to watch outside of the top three."

($)
www.nytimes.com

NBA Draft intel: AJ Dybantsa shows some flaws, Brayden Burries shines and more

This draft class looks incredibly deep. But how many top prospects will take NIL cash and wait until 2027?
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
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the usual suspects GIF
 
#57      
2qtslow
BalloonsTheElephant said:
Specifically in Keaton's case, he probably couldn't top this season. The diamond in the rough story is gone, and the expectations are so high that it'd be almost impossible to recapture this amazing season he's had.

For the 20ish picks, it probably depends on your age. If you are a Junior, unless you plan on really breaking out, it's probably your ceiling and the NBA has the tape to know who you are. As a freshman, you have a couple years to move up, plus you still have the "potential" of being younger which the NBA values.
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Sure he could top this season. If he returns along with all of the eligible starters and rotation players, we'd have to be the early favorites for next year's Natty. Then again, if we win it all this year...
 
#59      
RML
2qtslow said:
Sure he could top this season. If he returns along with all of the eligible starters and rotation players, we'd have to be the early favorites for next year's Natty. Then again, if we win it all this year...
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I have caught myself asking "what was the name of that kid from Canada that we had last year?". I agree that Keaton is at an even higher level, but if he were to stick for another year to just fill out a bit, we might just name the gym after him.
 
#60      
Calvin
2qtslow said:
Sure he could top this season. If he returns along with all of the eligible starters and rotation players, we'd have to be the early favorites for next year's Natty. Then again, if we win it all this year...
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If the projections are good, and there's more and more consensus that he's mid-lottery, there's no way he should come back. 10th pick is $15 mil over 3 years. Don't think we have anyone with big NIL money to compete with that.

We're lucky to have him. Savor every game!
 
#61      
2qtslow
Calvin said:
If the projections are good, and there's more and more consensus that he's mid-lottery, there's no way he should come back. 10th pick is $15 mil over 3 years. Don't think we have anyone with big NIL money to compete with that.

We're lucky to have him. Savor every game!
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I wasn't suggesting he'd profit by returning, only that he could "top" this season by winning a natty next season. There is no way to put a price on that!
 
#62      
ImGonnaBeILL
Keaton's a sure fire Top 15 pick in a loaded class. Enjoy him for the next 2 months.

I think he gets into Top 10 and possibly as high as 4.

He's got an NBA skill set that can play either PG or SG. Even if he were not to make it as a PG, he'd a marksman as a 2. Very few PG are versatile enough to also be able to play the 2. Teams will be clamoring for him as their Curry/Haliburton.

His rise and production is going to be unbelievable sell in recruiting and the portal.
 
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#63      
Second place is 1st loser
RML said:
I have caught myself asking "what was the name of that kid from Canada that we had last year?". I agree that Keaton is at an even higher level, but if he were to stick for another year to just fill out a bit, we might just name the gym after him.
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I have the hopes that Keaton would want to come back, fill out, etc, but then I remember the same kid you are.

In today's NBA, once you get out of the top 10, they draft upside over age. They'd rather have an 18 year old Wagler than a 23 year old Shannon. The bust rate is higher, but the upside is also higher.

In any event, if you're going to be drafted in the top 20, you go. You might make the same amount for that one year of college vs the NBA. However, you're getting a guaranteed, multi-year deal in the NBA versus a one year and a chance for a blown out knee in college. The risk/reward of coming back just doesn't make sense. Also, you're one year closer to being off of a rookie deal and the big time money, which is the second contract. No sense in pushing any of that off for a year.
 
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#65      
Emerson Bigguns
ImGonnaBeILL said:
Keaton's a sure fire Top 15 pick in a loaded class. Enjoy him for the next 2 months.

I think he gets into Top 10 and possibly as high as 4.

He's got an NBA skill set that can play either PG or SG. Even if he were not to make it as a PG, he'd a marksman as a 2. Very few PG are versatile enough to also be able to play the 2. Teams will be clamoring for him as their Curry/Haliburton.

His rise and production is going to be unbelievable sell in recruiting and the portal.
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He’s not getting into the top 3… Peterson and Dybantsa check every single box. Kobe/McGrady type prospects. Run/jump/shoot/dribble/length…everything.
Boozer is basically a clone of his dad. His floor is as high as anyone we’ve seen in awhile. Probably doesn’t have the ceiling of the other two, but you are getting a walking double double. Just a weird kind of strong for a kid that age.
Then it gets interesting.
Wilson probably gets the nod because of his size and athleticism you don’t have to squint hard to see a potential star.
Flemings and Wagler is an interesting question. Between those two it comes down to personal taste. Keaton is longer, but less twitchy. Both are smart, compete, and can really shoot it.
If Keaton falls past 7, I’d be surprised at this point.
In short,
He Is Out GIF by What We Do in the Shadows
 
#66      
Fly Illini Fly!
Emerson Bigguns said:
He’s not getting into the top 3… Peterson and Dybantsa check every single box. Kobe/McGrady type prospects. Run/jump/shoot/dribble/length…everything.
Boozer is basically a clone of his dad. His floor is as high as anyone we’ve seen in awhile. Probably doesn’t have the ceiling of the other two, but you are getting a walking double double. Just a weird kind of strong for a kid that age.
Then it gets interesting.
Wilson probably gets the nod because of his size and athleticism you don’t have to squint hard to see a potential star.
Flemings and Wagler is an interesting question. Between those two it comes down to personal taste. Keaton is longer, but less twitchy. Both are smart, compete, and can really shoot it.
If Keaton falls past 7, I’d be surprised at this point.
In short,
He Is Out GIF by What We Do in the Shadows
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I'd be very surprised if Acuff isn't in that conversation.
 
#69      
Calvin
2qtslow said:
I wasn't suggesting he'd profit by returning, only that he could "top" this season by winning a natty next season. There is no way to put a price on that!
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Fair point. I think most of us look at it as a practical decision where the NBA is the real prize. I suppose you could say the same thing about a college degree - for a lot of people it's a means to an end (good career) with the added bonus of the memories, skills and knowledge you get in other areas along the way. But a lot of those added benefits and memories have tremendous meaning.
 
#70      
2qtslow
Calvin said:
Fair point. I think most of us look at it as a practical decision where the NBA is the real prize. I suppose you could say the same thing about a college degree - for a lot of people it's a means to an end (good career) with the added bonus of the memories, skills and knowledge you get in other areas along the way. But a lot of those added benefits and memories have tremendous meaning.
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Another reason to think the chance he returns is 1% instead of 0% is the way he handled his recruiting. Minnesota offered more money and an almost guaranteed path to serious playing time. We offered less money and a chance to fight for playing time against some very good players. We know which choice he made. Money is not his sole motivator.
 
#71      
Grandpa
Another reason to think the chance he returns is 1% instead of 0% is the way he handled his recruiting. Minnesota offered more money and an almost guaranteed path to serious playing time. We offered less money and a chance to fight for playing time against some very good players. We know which choice he made. Money is not his sole motivator.
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I didn't realize that Minnesota offered more. Glad that he chose the Illini instead. Must have thought that he would rather be an Illini than a Gopher.
 
#72      
EllderIlliniFan
2qtslow said:
Another reason to think the chance he returns is 1% instead of 0% is the way he handled his recruiting. Minnesota offered more money and an almost guaranteed path to serious playing time. We offered less money and a chance to fight for playing time against some very good players. We know which choice he made. Money is not his sole motivator.
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Maybe he saw Illinois as a quicker path to the NBA
 
#73      
illiniguy24
Hingle McCringleberry said:
So Will Riley signed a 4 year, $17.3M rookie contract that pays him $3.5M this year and has $7.2M guaranteed as the 21st player selected in last years NBA draft.

With him seeing way more time in the G-league, wondering if prospects are starting to think that unless you are a sure fire lottery pick, it would make more financial sense to come back to college (transfer if necessary), get paid about the same (or potentially more) than year 1 of an NBA deal, then get drafted higher up with a much more lucrative NBA deal.
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Think about what you’re saying. A 4 year contract in the NBA with 7.2M guaranteed.

Going between G league (and dominating) and starting/playing in the NBA….

He’s developing way more this year doing that than he would be playing in college.

The only people it makes sense for are fringe second rounders or people who don’t have the athleticism for the NBA but are great college players
 
#74      
wettsten
someone on here theorized (and i agree) that we shouldn't compare the money from the first nba year against a possible extra year in college with nil. age makes a big difference for the nba so waiting a year makes you one year older when it comes to successive contracts so really waiting a year in college should be compared to the end of the nba career.

it was said much better than i can remember.
 
#75      
Illinimark
From what I understand Wagler's high school Coach had a connection to Underwood because of that coach's allegiance to KSU. That could be the reason Wagler chose Illinois instead of the more money being offered from Minnesota. If that is the case, then connection played a bigger role in this commitment than money. LUCKY US!
 
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