Honestly, nobody should want him as manager. Not because he'd necessarily be bad, but because we already love him, and the most likely outcome is that this would tarnish his legacy. I'm skeptical he'd be set up for success here, and if he comes in and becomes the scapegoat for a subpar team lacking ownership investment it would be sad to see fans turn on him, which is inevitably what would happen.
St Louis Cardinals 2026
Sign a halfway decent veteran OF with all this money they dumped and they could actually be entertaining with a back door shot at a Wild Card
Cub fan who likes Yadi. He taught Willson Contreras how to throw quicker when he was a Cub. Before the pitch clock a Cub batter, I forget who, needed a standing ovation. He didn't want to look needy and stand outside of the box while the Wrigley crowd cheered. Yadi stepped out from behind the plate and stood while the crowd cheered. Decent human being.
I admire your optimism. This Is a team that has won 71, 83, and 78 games in the last 3 years. As you mentioned the starting pitching is not good. The first 5 starters listed have a composite career win/loss total of 75-81. Without McGreevy included it is 64-77. The outfield in my view is still sub par. I do not frorsee any signings coming up because of the looming strike/lockout in 2027. Take your pick . 70 wins on the low end 80 wins on the upper end.
ptgrd23
- orange county CA
Glad to see Chaim trade Contreras, Gray, and Arenado. Good players but not good enough to keep Cardinals over .500.
We are going to stink. However we will be playing the young guns, giving them valuable experience without jerking them in and out of the lineup. We will know whether to give up on Walker, Gorman, and Nootbar.
With playing time we found out Donovan, Burleson, and Herriera are quality MLB starters.
We are going to stink. However we will be playing the young guns, giving them valuable experience without jerking them in and out of the lineup. We will know whether to give up on Walker, Gorman, and Nootbar.
With playing time we found out Donovan, Burleson, and Herriera are quality MLB starters.
The 2025 team had even worse starting pitching than this team projects to have and won 78 games.
I think you guys are just off on how bad a team needs to be to get to White Sox/ Angels/ Nationals level of win totals in the 60s.
Projections have them with an above average offense as it is, and there's a ton of upside there (in the form of Wetherholt hitting the ground running and not running a full season of black hole Walker in RF). The starting pitching is below average, but there's depth there (unproven depth) that wasn't there last year, so it won't be 250 innings of Fedde and Mikolas being two of the worst starters in the league.
If they sign a RH OF bat like they keep saying they will, seems like there's enough there to be A LOT closer to .500 or maybe lucking their way to a wild card spot (which only takes low 80s wins) than 67 wins.
I would expect a mid to high 70s win total, but there's definitely upside (and not a huge level of downside outside of a rash of injuries).
What projection are you looking at?
Fangraphs projects our pitching staff's combined fWAR to be 10.2 (3rd worst in the MLB). Last year our pitching staff combined for 12.7 fWAR (#20 in MLB). 12.7 is in fact more than 10.2.
Depth Charts - Cardinals | FanGraphs Baseball
Cardinals depth charts updated daily with projections
If you want to drill down into the player numbers, Sonny Gray was good for 3.6 fWAR, double our next best pitcher. He is gone. ZiPS projects our starting rotation in order of WAR at McGreevy at 2.1, then Libby at 1.6, May at 1.3, Pallante at 1.3 then a bunch of guys in the 0.5-0.9 range, because they don't know who is going to grab that 5th spot to start the season (pretty sure it's Leahy). Those top four guys are projected at a combined 6.3 WAR. Last season there were 3 pitchers who individually accumulated more than 6.3 fWAR, and 62 pitchers who accumulated more fWAR than our #1 guy is projected for in 2026. And in fact, ZiPS ranks McGreevy as the #62 pitcher for 2026.
Well, if that wasn't bleak enough, ZiPS's main competition in player projections, Steamer, think's ZiPS is optimistic. Steamer has our top for as May (1.6), McGreevy (1.4), Pallante (1.4), and Libby (1.3) for a combined 5.7 WAR. As a reference point, 1.6 fWAR was good for #106 amongst pitchers last season. Steamer ranks May as the #117 pitcher for 2026.
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2025 MLB Leaderboards - Cardinals SPWhat projection are you looking at?
Fangraphs projects our pitching staff's combined fWAR to be 10.2 (3rd worst in the MLB). Last year our pitching staff combined for 12.7 fWAR (#20 in MLB). 12.7 is in fact more than 10.2.
Depth Charts - Cardinals | FanGraphs Baseball
Cardinals depth charts updated daily with projectionswww.fangraphs.com
If you want to drill down into the player numbers, Sonny Gray was good for 3.6 fWAR, double our next best pitcher. He is gone. ZiPS projects our starting rotation in order of WAR at McGreevy at 2.1, then Libby at 1.6, May at 1.3, Pallante at 1.3 then a bunch of guys in the 0.5-0.9 range, because they don't know who is going to grab that 5th spot to start the season (pretty sure it's Leahy). Those top four guys are projected at a combined 6.3 WAR. Last season there were 3 pitchers who individually accumulated more than 6.3 fWAR, and 62 pitchers who accumulated more fWAR than our #1 guy is projected for in 2026. And in fact, ZiPS ranks McGreevy as the #62 pitcher for 2026.
Well, if that wasn't bleak enough, ZiPS's main competition in player projections, Steamer, think's ZiPS is optimistic. Steamer has our top for as May (1.6), McGreevy (1.4), Pallante (1.4), and Libby (1.3) for a combined 5.7 WAR. As a reference point, 1.6 fWAR was good for #106 amongst pitchers last season. Steamer ranks May as the #117 pitcher for 2026.
Mikolas and Fedde pitched 257 innings and accrued a whopping 0.3 fWAR in 2025. Yes, they don't have Gray, but given that many innings, the group of Quinn Mathews, Dick Fitts, and Dobbins would have to almost try to be that bad. That's the kind of depth that wasn't there last year. Also, Gray had the highest fWAR because his FIP was good - so he did pitch well, but his 4.28 ERA shows his results were just as bad as what Liberatore is projected for. Still a very bad staff, but I truly think it won't be worse than it was last year.
The Late-January ZiPS Projected Standings Update
The compiled ZiPS standings has the Cardinals, as currently constructed, as a 77 win team. So... about the same as last year, despite the trades. 80th percentile is 84 wins, which is probably in the wild card hunt, and they'd have to hit their 20th percentile to fall down to a win total in the 60s.
That really matches what I think. The offense is still above average (still might be if they trade Donovan) and the pitching is bad but there's upside since it's all young guys getting their first chance.
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Like... this is what a mid 60 win team looks like according to ZiPS:
Angels 2026 Depth Charts
Only one out of ten position player positions projecting above replacement level. The Cardinal's offense has 7/10 projecting above 2 fWAR.
Angels 2026 Depth Charts
Only one out of ten position player positions projecting above replacement level. The Cardinal's offense has 7/10 projecting above 2 fWAR.
But that doesn't project the pitching to be better than last year, which is what you had said, and last year's ZiPS projected us to win 79, so this is a worse ZiPS projection than last season. Not by a ton, but still worse, not better.
And like I said before, if you actually look at the projections they do predict us to have lower overall WAR out of our pitching staff so I think you're putting way to many eggs in the Mikolas/Fedde "addition by subtraction" basket.
I don't think they'll only win 60. Probably mid to upper 70s. But there is no metric out there that supports the idea this pitching staff has gotten better.
Missed this originally but this also doesn't make sense. For one thing still above average assumes it was above average last season. It wasn't:
Contreras was one of only 4 players we had that hit above league average last season and he is gone (not counting Fermin's 70 PAs). If we trade Donovan then we're down to (Herrera and Burleson). This is not an above average lineup.
Also since you bring up the 78 wins last season, they outperformed the expected record based on runs scored/allowed. If you run those numbers through Bill James' Pythagorean wins formula (handy website below) it comes out to 73.71 wins. If you think about it that way, it was lucky that they won 78, and running out a team with the same offense and defense would just as likely yield you a 70-92 record (if you were equally unlucky this time).
Pythagorean Expectation Calculator (Baseball)
Pythagorean Expectation is a metric that evaluates a team’s number of runs for and runs against and attempts to use that data to come up with what a team’s win percentage “should” be base on run data alone.
captaincalculator.com
Look, I admire the optimism but as much as you want it to be supported by data, it isn't.
We want to be optimistic. McGreevy/Libby take step forward, Pallante figures it out, Burly/Donovan/Herrera pick up where they left off, JJ has a ROTY worthy season, etc. Some of that might happen, it's highly unlikely all of it will. This looks like a 75 win team and I hope they prove me wrong and win the division.
I totally agree that this not an above average line-up. I am disappointed that apparently the Cardinals are going with the trio of Nootbar, Scott, and Walker in the outfield. I know one poster believes that Walker will start at triple A. I have read this a lot on other Cardinal fan sites. Wetherholt could be the X factor. As someone said maybe he will be the rookie of the year. We can only hope that he will pull a Freddy Lynn and win rookie of the year and the MVP. Will the Cardinals be willing to start the arbitration clock on Wetherholt in what is essentially the first year of a total rebuild and a strike/lockout looming in 2027.Missed this originally but this also doesn't make sense. For one thing still above average assumes it was above average last season. It wasn't:
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Contreras was one of only 4 players we had that hit above league average last season and he is gone (not counting Fermin's 70 PAs). If we trade Donovan then we're down to (Herrera and Burleson). This is not an above average lineup.
Also since you bring up the 78 wins last season, they outperformed the expected record based on runs scored/allowed. If you run those numbers through Bill James' Pythagorean wins formula (handy website below) it comes out to 73.71 wins. If you think about it that way, it was lucky that they won 78, and running out a team with the same offense and defense would just as likely yield you a 70-92 record (if you were equally unlucky this time).
Pythagorean Expectation Calculator (Baseball)
Pythagorean Expectation is a metric that evaluates a team’s number of runs for and runs against and attempts to use that data to come up with what a team’s win percentage “should” be base on run data alone.
Look, I admire the optimism but as much as you want it to be supported by data, it isn't.
Any team counting of Lars Nootbart is in trouble.
These are apparently the two prospects we are getting from Seattle:
Jurrangelo Cijntje (RHP) - #7 prospect in their org, #90 overall, he actually is a "switch" pitcher but pitches better with right-hand and probably will just be RHP in majors, he's 22 y/o and highest level pitched is AA
Tai Peete (OF) - #11 prospect in Mariners org, is 20 y/o, played A+ this past season , flashed some good power but low OBP.
That's...OK I guess. Clearly Cijntje is the better prospect. Definitely seems to be in the camp of prospects that's an intriguing lottery ticket.
Additionally the Mariners are sending Ben Williamson to TB, and presumably TB is sending another prospect to the Cards. Would expect that prospect to be a minor piece, as Ben Williamson was a 24-year-old rookie with a OPS+ of 76.
I wonder what the offers were like before the Giants moved off Donovan and signed Arraez. I feel like that took away some of the leverage the Cards had.
Ryllini
- Lombard
Cijntje gives reason for excitement. I'm also reading that he will be probably just be a rhp and is legit from the right side. Peete seems to have some power and speed, but that k rate is something we are all too familiar with
. He is 20, and an former 1st round pick, I can see why they would take a shot on him. I've seen a Joshua Baez comp for him.So far two former 1st rounders. I guess I was hoping for a bit more, but I do think we overrate Donny a touch. I loved that we could throw him almost anywhere. I saw someone compare him to Jeff McNeil. I think that is dead on. I don't have their recent season numbers in front of me, but I'd venture a guess they are close. I've been the proud spot owner of Jeff McNeil in my fantasy league.
Yeah, I mean this is what you get with a rebuild. Decent chance neither of these guys is a big leaguer and infintesimally small chance either ends up providing the value Donovan did. but we're also not in a position to derive much benefit from Donny's value anyway and you stockpile a bunch of these guys in the hopes a few pan out, and maybe one or two of them turns into a stud. That's the name of the game.Cijntje gives reason for excitement. I'm also reading that he will be probably just be a rhp and is legit from the right side. Peete seems to have some power and speed, but that k rate is something we are all too familiar with
So far two former 1st rounders. I guess I was hoping for a bit more, but I do think we overrate Donny a touch. I loved that we could throw him almost anywhere. I saw someone compare him to Jeff McNeil. I think that is dead on. I don't have their recent season numbers in front of me, but I'd venture a guess they are close. I've been the proud spot owner of Jeff McNeil in my fantasy league.
I did hope we'd at least get someone who was a little closer in the hopes it would reveal a shorter rebuild window.
As expected return from TB portion of this trade is negligible. Colton Ledbetter, 24 yo OF who spent the entire season in AA. Just some organizational depth.