Week of 2/16 Bracketology

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#151      
ChiefGritty
Birdus said:
I don't think the committee cares about the BIG title game.
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Ah this evergreen topic.

The B1G title game finishes too late for the result to be considered by the committee. When a team outside the bracket entirely (us in 2008) has played in the game the committee has produced two different brackets depending on the outcome, but slotting a fluke BTT winner into a 12 seed is a heck of a lot easier than swapping a 1 seed with all the downstream implications that has on the rest of the bracket.

Tl;dr, there's not gonna be seeding decided by the BTT final. That's the cost the Big Ten pays for being the lead-in programming for the selection show on CBS which is way, way, way worth it, that's one of the most high profile pieces of broadcast real estate in the sport.
 
#153      
skyIdub
Give me a W at home vs scUM and a tough loss in the B1G tourney.

Then we roll off 6 straight.

I will begrudgingly accept a tough loss at home vs scUM and a B1G Tournament championship which requires a 9 game run to the top of the mountain.

The probability of winning out has to be a crazy number.
And I choose not to math.
 
#154      
WizardBill
Fighter of the Nightman said:
Good catch and definitely an obvious oversight. Hell, given how long we had spent being bad, how GREAT we looked to close out the regular season and the fact that it occurred against a smaller instate school ... I would argue it's our most disappointing NCAA Tournament loss ever, or at least up there.
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This is entirely my take. It might be recency bias, but, other than getting hosed by UNC and refs prompting a rules change, this is RIGHT THERE.
 
#155      
Iloveorangekoolaid
ejam21 said:
Uconn took a bad Q3 loss at home to creighton tonight......door is slightly open for that one seed

Hell, im not sure if they really were a 1 seed before.....10 NET before this bad loss and 13 KP. In the last 10 years there has only been one 1 seed not in the top 10 of kenpom.
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Sadly Creighton jumped to 73 in NET moving it to a Q2 loss now, so now we can cheer against Creighton the rest of the year.
 
#156      
PleaseMakeABowlGame
Give me a W at home vs scUM and a tough loss in the B1G tourney.

Then we roll off 6 straight.

I will begrudgingly accept a tough loss at home vs scUM and a B1G Tournament championship which requires a 9 game run to the top of the mountain.

The probability of winning out has to be a crazy number.
And I choose not to math.
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A big ten tournament championship is MUCH more quintessential than winning one reg season game against Michigan. You get to hang a banner.
 
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#157      
NarrowJ
Still 3 games on the cusp of Q1: Wisconsin, Indiana, @Northwestern



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Northwestern actually moved DOWN a spot after winning a game last night, ugh lol
 
#160      
jrichisamazing
After UConn's loss last night, we have moved up to the 4th 1 seed on Torvik!


Like others have already said... it is essentially us, Iowa St, or Houston right now. Purdue and UConn technically still have a shot but its unlikely. Torvik is still giving Gonzaga an 18% chance at a 1 seed but I cant see any way that happens.

Iowa State's remaining schedule...

@BYU (Q1A)
@Utah (Q2)
Texas Tech (Q1)
@Arizona (Q1A)
Arizona St (Q2)

Houston's remaining schedule...

Arizona (Q1A)
@Kansas (Q1A)
Colorado (Q2)
Baylor (Q2)
@OK State (Q2)

If Arizona can beat both of them then we will be right in the thick of it even if we lose to Michigan (assuming we win the rest of our games). A more chaotic option is Arizona losing to both teams along with Kansas beating Houston and Arizona. In that scenario I have no idea what the committee would do with the Big12 teams.
 
#161      
DeonThomas
If we win out and beat Michigan twice in doing so I don’t see how we don’t get a 1 seed.
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Agreed. But that's an easy call.

What if we beat UM twice, go 6-1 the rest of the way (losing only at UCLA), and win the Big 10 tourney?
 
#162      
logjam
Piotyr said:
I'm not entirely positive, but I think if I ran the metrics bracket again, an Illinois team that is 4th in NET, 4th in KP and 4th in BT has a very good chance of being in the top 4 of the bracket.
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Make It So Star Trek GIF
 
#174      
AirTran
Wonder if the committee will recognize that the win against them came at full strength.
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Not much of that matters 1 seeds have a 40% of getting the final 4. 2 seeds 21%, 3 seeds 11%, 4 seeds 10%. We can't look ahead. To get a 1 seed we have to beat UCLA. Thinking any further than that doesn't have much value.
 
#175      
jrichisamazing
Fly Illini Fly! said:
If we lose, how would it be any different than the narratives about the Loyola loss?

"Shouldn't have been an 8seed" etc etc ...
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2 completely different situations. Loyola was ranked in the top 20 for most of the year on KP and BT, played in a much tougher conference, and was widely considered one of the best mid- major programs around that time.

Miami is having a hell of a season, but they are ranked in the 80s on KP and BT, play in a much weaker conference, and have squeaked by in so many games.

If Miami goes undefeated but loses in the conference championship, they might not even get in.
 
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