Week of 2/16 Bracketology

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#126      
thefalcon5
HereSoIDontGetFined said:
Miami (OH) is about to complete the first undefeated season in a long time and probably isn't going to get more than a 4- or 5-seed.
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If they do, I would be surprised if they got something higher than even a 7. According to KP, there SOS is 309th in the country. They’ve played some bad teams and almost lost to them.

Super fun story, super fun team to watch (fast, 3pt/layup obsessed), but they are just not good.

What’s sad-there best player according to torvik got hurt early in the season. What could’ve been with that team….
 
#127      
ejam21
NorthShoreIllini said:
They'll be lucky to get a 10. Zero chance at a 4/5 seed.
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exactly

Their best win will end up being NET 60 AKron at home in a 3 point win......or i guess if they play them in the conf tourney a neutral win.....

No quad 1 games even played and best case for their resume is having 2 quad 2 wins.

Im not sure they should even get in the tourney if they lose their conf tourney
 
#128      
21ChampaignSt
JT Toppin injury is significant. Beyond the fact that you hate to see an All American go down just before March, TTU is currently NET 16. 1 spot away from a Q1A win. Additionally, they play @ISU next week. It would help our 1 seed path (we're not completely out of that race) for TTU to win that game. But I don't see how that happens now without Toppin.

2 seed outside the Midwest is seeming inevitable. Still plenty of time for things to break our way though.
 
#129      
GoodePodzMelendez
Illini2010-11 said:
If we go 4-1, I highly doubt that Nebraska will be tied with us in standings. Nebraska has to do the same LA trip that we are doing this week. They then close with Iowa who just beat them. I do not think Nebraska is going 5-0 in that closing stretch. I think the odds of them going 5-0 are close to the same as going 3-2.
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Possibly but they do have the easiest schedule left. Both LA teams are either hunched up or screwed up mentally starting with their coach. But yes, if they go 4-1 or even 3-2, we should no worse have the 2 seed.
 
#131      
HereSoIDontGetFined
21ChampaignSt said:
JT Toppin injury is significant. Beyond the fact that you hate to see an All American go down just before March, TTU is currently NET 16. 1 spot away from a Q1A win. Additionally, they play @ISU next week. It would help our 1 seed path (we're not completely out of that race) for TTU to win that game. But I don't see how that happens now without Toppin.

2 seed outside the Midwest is seeming inevitable. Still plenty of time for things to break our way though.
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Wonder if the committee will recognize that the win against them came at full strength.
 
#132      
GoodePodzMelendez
Illinicpa14 said:
Last night really made the path simple for a 2 seed in St. Louis…it also made a better path that someone like Florida or Kansas get up to the 2 line so we can get someone like Gonzaga instead in 2/3
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I would think since Toppin is out, Tech will slide. I believe that the 1 seeds are Duke, AZ, Michigan (for now) and UConn. That leaves KU, IA St, Us, Florida and Houston fighting for the 2 seeds. I would think that the Committee would love a S16 round of us vs KU as the 2-3 matchup. I doubt they put us with Houston or IA St as we recently played them in the tourney and the Committee would love a KU-Illinois battle. I still think we will be put in the South with Duke, KU, Us and Michigan State or Vandy. We will get the Region of Death. LOL
 
#134      
Illini2010-11
grue2 said:
A 10 see would be generous IMO. Playing a steady stream of bottom feeders, many of their wins are by 5pts or less. Most are single digits. They are not good. They are determined.

If I was on the committee, they only make the tourney if they win their conference. Then I'd give them an 11 seed play in game. I expect them to lose by double digits.
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I was tracking with you until the bolded statement. If they go undefeated (including winning their conference), there is absolutely no chance that they play in the 11 seed play in game (they are not an at large team at that point, which is what that specific set of play in games are for). Their current NET ranking is 49. Assuming they win their conference tourney, that would put them well above the other auto bids that would be in the 16 seed play in games.

If Miami wins their conference championship, I see them anywhere from 10-12 from a seeding perspective, but not in the play in game. Now if they stumble in their conference tourney (say a loss in the conference championship game), then it becomes interesting. They would be in discussion for one of the final play in spots for the tourney (that 11 seed play in game), but I ultimately expect them to be left on the wrong side of the bubble.
 
#135      
21ChampaignSt
HereSoIDontGetFined said:
Wonder if the committee will recognize that the win against them came at full strength.
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I think the question I have is will the committee discount ISU's win against them (if they win) because TTU is not at full strength? That is what could potentially help us if we find ourselves in a "tie" with ISU.

The way the committee takes injuries into account seems so arbitrary to me (although maybe I'm just not aware of an actual written guideline they follow). For example, if you take into account that a team wasn't at full strength when they lost a game (us against Wisconsin) and discount that loss for that reason, shouldn't you also take into account when teams win games at less than full strength (us against Nebraska, Purdue) and give us even more credit for those games?

Just seems like such a Pandora's box and an impossible task for the committee.
 
#136      
Battle89
Illini2010-11 said:
I was tracking with you until the bolded statement. If they go undefeated (including winning their conference), there is absolutely no chance that they play in the 11 seed play in game (they are not an at large team at that point, which is what that specific set of play in games are for). Their current NET ranking is 49. Assuming they win their conference tourney, that would put them well above the other auto bids that would be in the 16 seed play in games.

If Miami wins their conference championship, I see them anywhere from 10-12 from a seeding perspective, but not in the play in game. Now if they stumble in their conference tourney (say a loss in the conference championship game), then it becomes interesting. They would be in discussion for one of the final play in spots for the tourney (that 11 seed play in game), but I ultimately expect them to be left on the wrong side of the bubble.
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I often on this site make the 'humanistic' argument, unconscious bias in the committee, etc. I will do so again.

I think the allure (even if only for CBS sound bites) of an undefeated team will outweigh the metrics, at least in part. I can see a 7-9 seed if they have an unblemished record. A ready-made Cinderella, if you will.
 
#137      
grue2
Illini2010-11 said:
I was tracking with you until the bolded statement. If they go undefeated (including winning their conference), there is absolutely no chance that they play in the 11 seed play in game (they are not an at large team at that point, which is what that specific set of play in games are for). Their current NET ranking is 49. Assuming they win their conference tourney, that would put them well above the other auto bids that would be in the 16 seed play in games.

If Miami wins their conference championship, I see them anywhere from 10-12 from a seeding perspective, but not in the play in game. Now if they stumble in their conference tourney (say a loss in the conference championship game), then it becomes interesting. They would be in discussion for one of the final play in spots for the tourney (that 11 seed play in game), but I ultimately expect them to be left on the wrong side of the bubble.
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Good catch. I forgot that rule. Okay, I'll put them as the ~4th best "you are only here because you won your conference" seed. I expect that to be behind Southland (SFA or McNeese), and American(SFla) champions. That probably makes them a 12 seed.
 
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#138      
Illini2010-11
grue2 said:
Good catch. I forgot that rule. Okay, I'll put them as the ~4th best "you are only here because you won your conference" seed. I expect that to be behind the MAC(Akron), Southland (SFA or McNeese), and American(SFla) champions. That probably makes them a 12 seed.
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Miami is in that conference...
 
#143      
lstewart53x3
One of these projected 1 seeds is not like the others

IMG_0492.jpeg
 
#144      
Oracle21
I hope the committee puts Miami, OH as an 8/9 if they win out and are undefeated going into the tourney. A #1 seed vs Miami Oh would be great storyline.
 
#145      
mhuml32
Question is how many more wins does Illinois need to be a 1-seed:

*Must beat UCLA, Oregon, and Maryland. Any loss in these three games will require a lot of breaks (UConn, Florida, Houston, Iowa State all losing)
*Beating Michigan would change it to an "inside looking out" discussion
*Near must would be winning that first B1G tourney game. It's likely a Q1 game but early exits would be noted in the tight race
*Lose to Michigan and you need at least another Q1A win, but that creates the likely scenario of facing Michigan again in the Big Ten title game. Win that one and you are likely a 1-seed. Lose to them again and you would create a narrative of whether the inarguable 2nd best B1G team deserves to be a 1-seed compared to say Florida or UConn (who beat you).
 
#146      
GoodePodzMelendez
ejam21 said:
Uconn took a bad Q3 loss at home to creighton tonight......door is slightly open for that one seed

Hell, im not sure if they really were a 1 seed before.....10 NET before this bad loss and 13 KP. In the last 10 years there has only been one 1 seed not in the top 10 of kenpom.
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They have @ Nova this weekend and still have a home tilt against the Johnies. They could easily drop to a 2 seed
 
#147      
21ChampaignSt
I've felt for a couple weeks that Houston and ISU are our main competition for a 1 seed. Not UConn.

We really need both of those teams to pick up a couple losses down the final stretch.

We also have four Q2 games that are tantalizingly close to becoming Q1.

3582.jpg


Need some of these to break our way in addition to going 6-0 over the next few weeks.
 
#148      
Thaillini22
IlliniGrad93 said:
If we win out and beat Michigan twice in doing so I don’t see how we don’t get a 1 seed.
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Okay, can we talk about this. Do we *really* want this? The 'going 2-0 against a really good Michigan team before the tournament with a real chance of running into them again in said tournament' thing... I won't be able to deal with the record ending 2-1. I just won't.
 
#149      
Birdus
GoodePodzMelendez said:
I would think since Toppin is out, Tech will slide. I believe that the 1 seeds are Duke, AZ, Michigan (for now) and UConn. That leaves KU, IA St, Us, Florida and Houston fighting for the 2 seeds. I would think that the Committee would love a S16 round of us vs KU as the 2-3 matchup. I doubt they put us with Houston or IA St as we recently played them in the tourney and the Committee would love a KU-Illinois battle. I still think we will be put in the South with Duke, KU, Us and Michigan State or Vandy. We will get the Region of Death. LOL
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Not so sure about UCONN.
 
#150      
Birdus
mhuml32 said:
Question is how many more wins does Illinois need to be a 1-seed:

*Must beat UCLA, Oregon, and Maryland. Any loss in these three games will require a lot of breaks (UConn, Florida, Houston, Iowa State all losing)
*Beating Michigan would change it to an "inside looking out" discussion
*Near must would be winning that first B1G tourney game. It's likely a Q1 game but early exits would be noted in the tight race
*Lose to Michigan and you need at least another Q1A win, but that creates the likely scenario of facing Michigan again in the Big Ten title game. Win that one and you are likely a 1-seed. Lose to them again and you would create a narrative of whether the inarguable 2nd best B1G team deserves to be a 1-seed compared to say Florida or UConn (who beat you).
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I don't think the committee cares about the BIG title game. Our chance at a one seed is slim pickens. Never know though if we win out. A solid 2 would be terrific!
 
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