Does anyone know where to find turnover rate for college basketball teams? I was listening to the Three Man Weave College Basketball Podcast and they were railing on Illinois about being dead last in the country in turning teams over and how that will come back to bite them against a hot shooting team in the tournament.
Illini Basketball 2025-2026
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ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
The thing that really breaks opposing defenses is that among our 8 guys who play, EVERY SINGLE ONE
- is a threat to score out to the 3 point line
- hunts rebounds at both ends
- is a willing and capable passer
- is longer than the equivalent player on your team
There is nowhere to hide a defensive weakness against that, whatever part of that matrix you aren't set up to stop is going to turn into a gushing leak. And our guys know that and have the extreme confidence to just keep playing, the breakdown or bad matchup is always going to reveal itself.
It's a nightmare. We are a nightmare to play against. And then the never fouling just sort of adds insult to injury, you're going to have to earn all your own points yourself.
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Illinois is last in D1 in opponent turnovers per offensive play:
Also last in opponent turnovers per possession:
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ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
More turnovers means more fouls, not worth the risk.
And turnovers are most valuable in PPP terms for teams that excel in transition, which isn't our game.
Our game strategy is designed to dare opponents to play more efficient offense than us for 40 minutes. I'd say Nebraska is the only one to really do it, the others found some way out of the riddle.
To be fair, he was a starter every game before the injury. He was only our 6th man last night because he came back from injury (though admittedly Jake is playing really well).
It would be nice to have Duke's defense. They're 3rd in opponent free throw attempt rate, but force a lot more turnovers. I don't pretend to know how we could achieve that, and it might come at the expense of something else (either directly through style of play, or indirectly through spending less time practicing something else).
Absolutely. But I’d be quite surprised if Jake doesn’t remain the starter moving forward.
The Galloping Ghost
- Washington, DC
Our offense is a hydra. You might stop one player—and have to invest a massive amount of planning and practice time to do so—only for two more to take over. Offensively, this is as complete a team as you're gonna find in college basketball.
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ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
God that's beautiful, everybody watch that.Matchup Hunting with Brad Underwood – Univ. of Illinois
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"You don't have to run offense to take advantage of a bad defender"
ptgrd23
- orange county CA
MIchigan has equivalent size/length as Illinois.
Duke is smaller
Cam Boozer F 6'9" 250 freshman
Isiah Evans G 6'6" 180 soph
Patrick Ngonba C 6'11" 250 soph
Caleb Foster 6'5' G 205 junior
Cayden Boozer G 6'4" 205 freshman
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Dame Sarr F 6'8" 190 freshman
Maliq Brown F 6'9" 225 SR
How the Illini have lost their games:
Alabama - Couldn't hit free throws at even an average rate. Weird anomaly, potentially explainable by "tired bodies" from running ragged. Also, they didn't know Keaton was Keaton at the time.
UConn - Couldn't hit any shots at all. Even Hurley post-game was quoted as "if they make shots at a normal rate they win that game". Effectively the strategy was "count on the offense not offensing", which is a risky strategy.
Nebraska - Defense wasn't clicking at all. Switches missed, Nebraska was able to get whatever they wanted all game. Still took a buzzer beater 3 to win.
MSU - Count on the officials to call fouls on the team that never fouls to get the starters out of the game.
Wisconsin - FTs AND perimeter defense were an issue, mostly due to "they only had 6 healthy players worth playing". EVEN THEN, the game was winnable.
So, thus far the strategies that have worked since they've gone full Keaton are:
- Hope they can't defend correctly
- Hope they don't have all their players
- Hope the officials call more fouls on them
Boozer may be 6'9". I don't know. He plays like he is 7' though.
Oh this is phenomenal.Matchup Hunting with Brad Underwood – Univ. of Illinois
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ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
Mara is a bit bigger and longer than Tomi, sure.
But Z is longer than Morez, Mirk and Yaxel about the same, Boswell bigger and longer than Cadeau, Wagler longer than Trey McKenney, Stojakovic bigger than Roddy Gayle, Davis and Humrichous are way bigger than Burnett & Cason, etc.
Unlike most teams in CBB there aren't dramatic size mismatches for us against Michigan (and that will be noticeable immediately when that game tips off), but what size mismatches there are go in our direction.
Plus they have guys you don't have to guard out to three.
And these are the best teams in the country!
2025-26 Men's College Basketball Advanced Opponent Stats | College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com
2025-26 Men's College Basketball Season Summary and More About College Basketball at Sports-Reference.com
I'm kind of mystified they went in on Illinois like that considering the last two champs: UConn was 262 out of 362 in TOV% and Florida 240 out of 364. Yes it would be great to create more turnovers but not at the expense of risking more fouls or easier baskets.
To beat Michigan, you HAVE to pull their bigs out to the 3pt line. You can’t just let Mara stand there.
Only one team that the have played has the ability to do that — and it’s Wisconsin, their lone loss (and MAYBE Nebraska, game they almost lost, needed questionable officiating).
Illinois absolutely has that capability.
Only one team that the have played has the ability to do that — and it’s Wisconsin, their lone loss (and MAYBE Nebraska, game they almost lost, needed questionable officiating).
Illinois absolutely has that capability.
I'm sorry but did you forget that less than 2 years ago we were playing in the Elite 8 for a spot in the Final Four (and unfortunately just ended up getting beat by one of the best college teams in recent memory on their way to the title)?
Some might say Elite...!
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
For anyone who has gone to the BTT a lot in the past, can you advise how the tickets work? We really want to go this year, but (unless I am missing something) it appears that you can only buy "all session" tickets from the official website right now; if you want tickets to a single session, you have to go somewhere like StubHub. We have gone to the BTT at the United Center twice, but both times we just bought tickets on StubHub the night before once we already knew when Illinois played.
This year, I was thinking about trying to see if it would be more cost effective to play the odds of when we might play (I saw somewhere the overwhelming odds at the moment were the 5:30 pm on Friday slot?) and buy tickets for that session! If we had guaranteed child care, though, it seems like buying all session tickets is actually a pretty good deal. There are some that are $400, which is only $50 per session if you actually cared to go to every game from Tuesday to Sunday, lol. We'll probably end up paying like $120+ per ticket on StubHub for just one session with Illinois and potentially that tripled if we made the Championship Game on Sunday and wanted to go again and again!
This year, I was thinking about trying to see if it would be more cost effective to play the odds of when we might play (I saw somewhere the overwhelming odds at the moment were the 5:30 pm on Friday slot?) and buy tickets for that session! If we had guaranteed child care, though, it seems like buying all session tickets is actually a pretty good deal. There are some that are $400, which is only $50 per session if you actually cared to go to every game from Tuesday to Sunday, lol. We'll probably end up paying like $120+ per ticket on StubHub for just one session with Illinois and potentially that tripled if we made the Championship Game on Sunday and wanted to go again and again!
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