I don't want to immediately disagree with a lot of this, but I am wondering about some of it. So let me just 'stream of consciousness' kind of run through it and see how I feel about it as I apply the proverbial microscope to each area of concern.
Its hard to evaluate from a straight matchup perspective because our rotations at the 3/4/5 positions are different than how Michigan does things. We play Jake & Andrej and sometimes Ben at the 3, Mirkovic and Ben and sometimes Z at the 4, and we typically do not go small so its pretty much Tomi & Z at the 5. Michigan pretty much starts with Lendeborg, Morez and Mara up front but then rotates Will Tschetter in at the 4 with Morez playing some 5 when Mara is out or vice-versa. So its not 1:1 but lets try to reason our way through this anyhow:
Taller vs tougher and more athletic. Do we automatically give Mara/Morez/Lendeborg/Tschetter the toughness win over Tomi/Mirk/Andrej/Jake/Ben? If so, why? I think they're obviously more athletic though. Morez and Mara really do not need to be guarded on the perimeter and we are going to stretch them out on offense which gets the shot blockers out of the lane. I sort of think its impossible for us to not be considered a really 'tough' team just solely thinking about our rebounding.
NBA caliber? Mara is projected late 1st/early 2nd, Lendeborg I've seen anywhere from late lottery to late 1st, Morez is mid-to-late 2nd. If any of our front line shows up on mock drafts, they're all mid-to-late 2nd. So saying NBA caliber is true, but do we actually care, and does it actually matter, and does it make them better college players? Not a frontcourt player, but Wagler will be the best NBA prospect on the court.
Lendeborg is obviously a better college player than Andrej. Is Morez a better college player than Mirkovic? Mirkovic is far more versatile, shoots 3s on volume at an incredible percentage, can put the ball on the floor and is a great passer, basically can do everything Morez wishes he could do. Morez averages slightly more PPG and Mirkovic slightly more RPG. Is Mara more effective than Tomi? Mara averages roughly the same PPG, slightly more RPG, also blocks shots (Tomi isn't going to block a lot of shots), but Mara is a sub-50 percent free throw shooter and doesn't even need to be guarded outside 15 feet of the basket. And, we have a guy coming off of the bench who averages nearly the same amount of blocks in way less minutes than Mara plays.
As a team, Illinois has better rebound rates and a slightly higher rebounding margin (again, rebounding being as much of a "toughness" measurement/thing as you can get). I just have doubts that we're going to get "punished in the paint" since we are the slightly better rebounding team and they only average 1 more block per game than we do, and we're going to stretch them out to the 3 point line (which is something they cannot do to us without playing an ultra small lineup with Mara & Morez both on the bench).
Then we have the assertion that "we are going to have to shoot lights out" which I'm also not sure is true. Wake shot 34% from the field overall and missed 24 threes and probably should have beat them. TCU shot 37% from the field and missed 17 threes and also nearly beat them. Penn State shot 35% from the field and missed 22 threes and almost beat them. Nebraska shot a respectable 46% overall but missed 21 threes and nearly beat them without 2 rotation players.
After writing all of this, it sort of seems like we have a pretty good formula to be one of the few teams in college basketball that can match what they do and can't subscribe to a thought process that "Illinois is going to get punked and will need to get lucky and make 12-15 threes just to have a chance". As others have said, both teams present unique challenges, its probably the most interesting matchup in all of college basketball if you consider the two team's various strengths and how they align.
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