Illini Basketball 2025-2026

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#401      
TheodoreRex
Even more concerned about the team after listening to Werner's breakdown of the game... Werner is as fair as they come- just a scathing critique of the lack of effort, poor decision making, and inability to adapt during the game. He through a long series that was literally just examples of defensive lapses and lack of effort by our guys.. How does no leader step up at halftime or during the 2nd half? How does Underwood not call a timeout earlier in the first half when the momentum was shifting- NOT AFTER IT HAD SHIFTED (classic Underwood and his poor in game coaching). Our biggest achilles heal- fast guard and bigs that can shoot. How do we leave Booker wide open for so many 3's when he's shot over 40% this year? Why did we keep switching bigs on to Dent and not make Kylan just stick him at all costs (or at least only switch guard on guard). That game is truly a full on indictment on the players and staff.. We choked when it mattered most and have done so many times this season in the closest of games.
 
#402      
bavanga3
Somewhat Bracketology-related, but I thought it belonged here. I'll agree with others that in isolation, the #2 seed vs. #3 seed path would not really matter for this particular team. Obviously, if we were more likely to get St. Louis as a #2 seed (definitely true) or there were a scenario where dropping to a #3 seed got us Chicago (much murkier), that could tip the scales ... but I don't think we'd be particularly more likely to drop a Second Round game to a #6 seed than we would to a #7 seed, and the #2/3 group have to get past each other in the Sweet Sixteen anyway.

So, with all that said, I was thinking about how I felt heading into March Madness under the assumption that we were either a #2 or #3 seed and trying not to think too much about the location. Knock on wood and obviously anything can happen in the Tournament, but I do think this group has the talent and offensive firepower to have a VERY slim chance of getting upset in the First Round. Given that belief, I wanted to look at our performances in my completely subjective opinion that I thought would be the type that would cut our March Madness run short. I want to emphasize that these aren't all the same and are once again subjective. For example, maybe I would consider two performances equally encouraging for our March Madness prospects, with one being a game where we shot lights out but another being one where we WEREN'T on our A game and grinded out a win.

This is sort of what I came up with as the three big buckets for me, personally. I didn't include every game, so no need to point that out! These are just ones that particularly stuck out.


Playing With Fire | These are the types of performances that just gave me that archetypal feel of getting us bounced in the Second Round and leave everyone wondering what could have been.

(1) First half vs. Nebraska in Champaign
(2) End of regulation and OT vs. Wisconsin
(3) Second half at UCLA


Surefire Second Weekend Team | Regardless of how far we would end up going (Sweet Sixteen, Elite Eight, Final Four and beyond, etc.), this level of play is going to safely avoid any First Weekend upsets.

(1) vs. Tennessee in Nashville
(2) at Iowa
(3) at Michigan State
(4) vs. Indiana
(5) First half of the first half at UCLA


Title Contenders | If we play like this, I would take our guys against any other team in the field. It doesn't guarantee we don't fall short (1989 and 2005 did, after all), but it will take the other team's best to stop this Illini train.

(1) vs. Missouri at Braggin' Rights
(2) at Nebraska
(3) at USC


Games not mentioned either had too unique of circumstances for this exercise (e.g., Keaton's historic performance at Purdue), because they were against teams way worse than we would face in these Tournament situations (e.g., demolishing Rutgers), since they were just a really long time ago (e.g., vs. Texas Tech), etc. If you put those in chronological order, while obviously acknowledging there are plenty of omitted games in between and before this list, it would look like this:

Dec. 6 - Sweet Sixteen / Elite Eight team
Dec. 13 - Second Round loss
Dec. 22 - Contending for a National Championship
Jan. 11 - Sweet Sixteen / Elite Eight team
Feb. 1 - Contending for a National Championship (down one starter)
Feb. 7 - Sweet Sixteen / Elite Eight team (down one starter)
Feb. 10 - Second Round loss (down two starters)
Feb. 15 - Sweet Sixteen / Elite Eight team (down one starter)
Feb. 18 - Contending for a National Championship
Feb. 21 - Sweet Sixteen / Elite Eight team
Feb. 21 - Second Round loss

The TL;DR here is that when you take into account how shorthanded we have been and that this team arguably didn't fully blossom into the team we believe can make a deep run until Braggin' Rights, I can honestly say that the second half vs. UCLA last night was the only time that I was concerned by our product at full strength. The silver lining to that could be that maybe it was the first time the team saw that it could be that vulnerable at full strength if the effort and focus dipped. Let's hope last night can serve a similar purpose as the epic collapse at PSU in 2024 ... we never saw a loss of focus like that again with that group.

Put another way, since Braggin' Rights, this group has "done enough" to very clearly find itself in the Sweet Sixteen or Elite Eight in 7 of the 9 games I highlighted above vs. NCAAT-caliber teams. I'm pretty confident these guys will bring it and then some on stages like the Sweet Sixteen and beyond, and I am hoping last night was the last wakeup call necessary to keep our foot on the gas in the more Second Round-esque games.
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We had a "very slim" chance to lose to Loyola of Chicago, but we lost tona better coach. If we're one of the elite basketball programs in the country, why do we accept a coach who is so challenged by in game coaching. We have a ceiling with him and its not a championship. All your good analysis, analyze that.
 
#403      
DICKnaggie
Bobby Knight Chair Throw GIF
It was on this day in 1984 that Robert Montgomery Knight decided to celebrate my 14th birthday by throwing a chair across the court!
 
#405      
Curbelo Fanboy
For the bulk of this season I was feeling fairly positive about the direction of the season and potential for a difference making run in March. Saturday brought back a lot of the lingering Brad doubts for me that frankly I’ve had since Loyola in 2021. I’m now of a mind they’ll win 2 games and then will run into something that requires in game tactical adjustments and that’s where it ends.
 
#406      
EmeraldCityIllini
Curbelo Fanboy said:
For the bulk of this season I was feeling fairly positive about the direction of the season and potential for a difference making run in March. Saturday brought back a lot of the lingering Brad doubts for me that frankly I’ve had since Loyola in 2021. I’m now of a mind they’ll win 2 games and then will run into something that requires in game tactical adjustments and that’s where it ends.
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Do you feel there's been any games this year where you've seen in-game adjustments that have led to wins?
 
#407      
Chase321
Curbelo Fanboy said:
For the bulk of this season I was feeling fairly positive about the direction of the season and potential for a difference making run in March. Saturday brought back a lot of the lingering Brad doubts for me that frankly I’ve had since Loyola in 2021. I’m now of a mind they’ll win 2 games and then will run into something that requires in game tactical adjustments and that’s where it ends.
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Adjustments were made in the UCLA game as LaTulip pointed out today. Those adjustments worked and the reason ucla didn’t win by double digits in regulation. Just wasn’t quite enough.
 
#408      
AirTran
TheodoreRex said:
Even more concerned about the team after listening to Werner's breakdown of the game... Werner is as fair as they come- just a scathing critique of the lack of effort, poor decision making, and inability to adapt during the game. He through a long series that was literally just examples of defensive lapses and lack of effort by our guys.. How does no leader step up at halftime or during the 2nd half? How does Underwood not call a timeout earlier in the first half when the momentum was shifting- NOT AFTER IT HAD SHIFTED (classic Underwood and his poor in game coaching). Our biggest achilles heal- fast guard and bigs that can shoot. How do we leave Booker wide open for so many 3's when he's shot over 40% this year? Why did we keep switching bigs on to Dent and not make Kylan just stick him at all costs (or at least only switch guard on guard). That game is truly a full on indictment on the players and staff.. We choked when it mattered most and have done so many times this season in the closest of games.
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"Even more concerned about the team after listening to Werner's breakdown of the game"

"Oh Auntie 'Em, its a twister its a twister!"
 
#409      
AirTran
For the bulk of this season I was feeling fairly positive about the direction of the season and potential for a difference making run in March. Saturday brought back a lot of the lingering Brad doubts for me that frankly I’ve had since Loyola in 2021. I’m now of a mind they’ll win 2 games and then will run into something that requires in game tactical adjustments and that’s where it ends.
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If watching this team is so painful... you can always stop watching.

I just wonder for all you "The glass isn't half full, it isn't half empty. The glass is cracked and leaking" types why actually watch the games? It almost as if you are looking for something wrong.

If you have problems with the this team (not withstanding the 5 losses we have) you have alot of problems.

Who in the world be able to replace Brad Underwood and have the succes he has had?
 
#415      
AnnoyedWithGarza
PleaseMakeABowlGame said:
Michigan State, yes. I thought their ball screen coverage was better than anyone we’ve played this year.

Alabama, we missed free throws and too many wide open shots. We’re a very bad shooting team when we play on nba courts.
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And in both situations, we were one play away from beating Michigan St, and we were a strange, TERRIBLE free-throw shooting night away from beating Alabama (before we had our identity as well). I don't believe that speeding us up really destroys us. I believe that we can play any game anyone wants to play.
 
#416      
NarrowJ
PleaseMakeABowlGame said:
Michigan State, yes. I thought their ball screen coverage was better than anyone we’ve played this year.

Alabama, we missed free throws and too many wide open shots. We’re a very bad shooting team when we play on nba courts.
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Even with the poor shooting, we scored 1.16 PPP vs MSU which is still way above average

Nebraska is a better defense per KP and we scored 1.29 and 1.25 PPP in those two games, which are elite numbers

Not worried about our offense, we just shot poorly vs MSU more than they were blowing up anything we were doing evidenced by only 4 turnovers

The NBA courts thing that happened in one game is not a trend (we shot 34% from 3 vs Alabama in the other game that was played on an NBA court)
 
#417      
Illini in Italy
Curbelo Fanboy said:
For the bulk of this season I was feeling fairly positive about the direction of the season and potential for a difference making run in March. Saturday brought back a lot of the lingering Brad doubts for me that frankly I’ve had since Loyola in 2021. I’m now of a mind they’ll win 2 games and then will run into something that requires in game tactical adjustments and that’s where it ends.
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I'll give this one three Eeyores out of five.

sad winnie the pooh GIF
sad winnie the pooh GIF
sad winnie the pooh GIF
 
#418      
fuggles
NarrowJ said:
Even with the poor shooting, we scored 1.16 PPP vs MSU which is still way above average

Nebraska is a better defense per KP and we scored 1.29 and 1.25 PPP in those two games, which are elite numbers

Not worried about our offense, we just shot poorly vs MSU more than they were blowing up anything we were doing evidenced by only 4 turnovers

The NBA courts thing that happened in one game is not a trend (we shot 34% from 3 vs Alabama in the other game that was played on an NBA court)
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But the MSG court was hedious.
 
#421      
HereSoIDontGetFined
TheodoreRex said:
Even more concerned about the team after listening to Werner's breakdown of the game... Werner is as fair as they come- just a scathing critique of the lack of effort, poor decision making, and inability to adapt during the game. He through a long series that was literally just examples of defensive lapses and lack of effort by our guys.. How does no leader step up at halftime or during the 2nd half? How does Underwood not call a timeout earlier in the first half when the momentum was shifting- NOT AFTER IT HAD SHIFTED (classic Underwood and his poor in game coaching). Our biggest achilles heal- fast guard and bigs that can shoot. How do we leave Booker wide open for so many 3's when he's shot over 40% this year? Why did we keep switching bigs on to Dent and not make Kylan just stick him at all costs (or at least only switch guard on guard). That game is truly a full on indictment on the players and staff.. We choked when it mattered most and have done so many times this season in the closest of games.
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I think we need to consider that perhaps lack of effort will undo any schematic changes the coaching staff might make anyway. Why did we leave people open? It wasn't designed that way. It never is. Players lose focus all the time, or underestimate a shooter or overthink decisions. Not just ours. If we ran every play perfectly, we'd win every game 120-15 and 10 of those 15 would be free throws that we'd be arguing were bad calls.
 
#423      
RockfordIllini
Yes, we lost focus and stubbed our toe vs UCLA. Unfortunate but it does happen especially this time of year. It stings but ultimately it’s a Q1 loss against a team that is a tough matchup for us on the road where they are now 15-1 and on the second game of a SoCal trip that no one has swept this year.

Still encouraged about our chances for a deep run, I am seeing a bit of a formula for our last 3 losses, that is
1. Quick penetrating guard(s) we can’t stay in front of.
2. Above average shooting night for our opponents (Wisconsin bigs I believe were 6-11, Booker/Dailey 5-8)
3. We struggle in someway that’s out of character (MSU missed too many shots, Wisconsin poor rebounding game and unforced TOs, UCLA lost focus on defense and took/missed too many 3s).

So we need to have all 3 go wrong and even then, it’s 3 OT losses to tournament teams, 2 on the road and 2 where we were shorthanded. We are literally one rebound/made free throw/complete brain fart on end of game defense etc from being 3-0 in those games when all the bad stuff happened against good teams.

Now all of those things can happen in a single elimination game in the tourney. But the fact of the matter is I don’t know if a team has beaten us as much as we’ve beaten ourselves since the Nebraska loss which was also a buzzer beater, and that’s a 2.5 month sample size. Tells me we will be a tough out in March.
 
#424      
thefalcon5
This is still the most confident I’ve been in an Illini team since the 1 seed year.

I know others have brought it up but our worst loss is an OT buzzer beater to UCLA in LA? Or Wisconsin OT at home? Both tournament teams.

Our other losses were a buzzer beater contested 3 home against a top 10 Neb team, an OT away loss at MSU, neutral losses to UConn and Bama — both top 25 teams.

I truly, on a season level, cannot understand the doom and gloom. It’s all too hyper focused for me. UCLA loss sucked I get it. Every loss sucks when you’re a good team.

We’ve got 8 guys who can drop 20 any given night and no that isn’t an exaggeration. We’ve got the most efficient offense in CBB (sorry I don’t believe one prior to kenpom existing would have a higher metric). Our defense is serviceable. Our rebounding is fantastic. We don’t foul, and shoot the 4th highesT FT % in the county. We rarely turn the ball over.

Our hiccups have cost us games, that’s concerning to me. But they’ve been just that—hiccups.
 
#425      
RabidDawgClassic
This team reminds me of the 1986-87 Illini, which lost five excruciatingly close conference games, three of which were in overtime and one of which came after having 22 point lead (with 12 minutes left). All five losses were to three teams — Iowa (2), Purdue (2) and Indiana (1).

We also had an ugly one point loss to (ugh) Loyola and our worst loss was a 90-77 affair at North Carolina.

That team was really, really good and those close losses were crushing. But optimism was still high as Illinois earned a #3 seed.

Against #14 Austin Peay. 🫤

Let’s hope history doesn’t completely repeat itself.
 
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