Week of 2/23 Bracketology

[Fly Illini Fly!]

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With a win over Michigan, there’s no chance we don’t leapfrog Purdue.

With a win over Michigan, I think we're ahead of Purdue, Iowa State, and Houston. (Iowa State still has to go to Arizona)

What are the chances saint John’s beats Connecticut? I don’t see much of a pathway if Uconn wins that game.

IMO -- UCONN will be tough if they don't lose to St Johns.

FWIW, Deccourcy and Bracket Matrix both have UConn as the final one seed.

 

[Fly Illini Fly!]

Another benefit of beating Michigan is that we essentially lock up the 2seed in the big ten tournament.

All we'd need is a Nebraska loss in one of the west coast games, and no letdown against Maryland / Oregon.

In the B10, I think there's a dropoff after the top 6 teams (the top 4, Wisconsin, Michigan State), so the 2seed would be important.

 

[WhereDoWeStandWithStorr?]

If we’re being honest

is there really much of a difference in being the top 2 seed, and being seeded in UConn’s bracket versus getting a 1 seed?

Say a team like Alabama’s the 4 seed. I could definitely see them beating uconn in sweet sixteen.

You play a 4/5 seed vs a 3 seed.

Has to account for something. Elite 8s are not a given.

 

[fatboyslim]

You play a 4/5 seed vs a 3 seed.

Has to account for something. Elite 8s are not a given.

Depends on who that 4/5 vs 3 seed is. Elite 8s aren’t a given either way. Let’s say the 3 seed is Gonzaga and 4 seed is Bama or UNC or Kansas. I’ll take the 2 seed.

 

[AirTran]

i like this trend but isn't this after the tourney though? weren't we #1 going into the tourney 2024. I could be wrong but I know we were #1 offense when we played Iowa State and they were #1 defense. that could be including first and second round data. I know Purdue, uconn and were top 3 most of the year that year in offense

In the 2016-17 Men's NCAA basketball season, the UCLA Bruins possessed the top-rated offense, finishing with an adjusted offensive efficiency of 125.4 according to KenPom rankings, while leading the nation in scoring. They averaged 89.8 points per game that season, led by Lonzo Ball and TJ Leaf.

You might want to check the "facts" out/

 

[Fly Illini Fly!]

The win against Michigan would need to be convincing, like double-digit convincing, just to have a chance, in my opinion. Six-loss teams don't often get 1-seeds.

100% not true. You’re only basing this logic off of last season.

In 2024, North Carolina got a one seed with 7 Ls.

In 2023, Kansas got a one seed with 7 Ls.

In 2022, Baylor got a one seed with 6 Ls AND Kansas got a one seed with 6 Ls.

In 2021, Illinois got a one seed with 6 Ls.

Just wanted to expand on this:

2019 — North Carolina one seed; 7 losses

2018 — Kansas one seed; 7 losses

2017 — North Carolina one seed; 7 losses (won national championship)

2016 — North Carolina one seed; 6 losses. AND Oregon one seed; 6 losses. AND Virginia one seed; 7 losses.

2015 — no one seeds had 6+ losses.

So 2025 was the first time in 10 years that a one seed didn’t have 6 Ls. This is by no means a determining factor.

 

[Illinicpa14]

If we’re being honest

is there really much of a difference in being the top 2 seed, and being seeded in UConn’s bracket versus getting a 1 seed?

Say a team like Alabama’s the 4 seed. I could definitely see them beating uconn in sweet sixteen.

The bigger issue for us is playing St Louis - we have to get ahead of Purdue or Iowa State…or else it’s likely shipped out to Philly or Buffalo

 

[the juiceman cometh]

Unless that team was coached by Brad Underwood as Ok St. had a 1st round exist to Michigan.

That team was also #155 in defense on Kenpom and a 10-seed. So a little different than this team and a bit of a Unicorn generally.

 

[TriangleIL]

The win against Michigan would need to be convincing, like double-digit convincing, just to have a chance, in my opinion. Six-loss teams don't often get 1-seeds.

2024: UConn (37-3), Houston (30-4), Purdue (33-4), North Carolina (27-7)

2023: Alabama (31-5), Houston (32-3), Kansas (28-7), Purdue (29-5)

2022: Arizona (31-3), Baylor (26-6), Gonzaga (26-3), Kansas (28-6)

2021: Baylor (22-2), Gonzaga (26-0), Illinois (23-6), Michigan (20-4)

 

[March2TheArch]

2024: UConn (37-3), Houston (30-4), Purdue (33-4), North Carolina (27-7)

2023: Alabama (31-5), Houston (32-3), Kansas (28-7), Purdue (29-5)

2022: Arizona (31-3), Baylor (26-6), Gonzaga (26-3), Kansas (28-6)

2021: Baylor (22-2), Gonzaga (26-0), Illinois (23-6), Michigan (20-4)

We have to win out meaning potentially beating UM twice. So very low chance. I’d be thrilled to stay on the 2 line.

 

[Oldskoolkoach]

Can we just lock this bracket in?

Men's Bracketology: How the projected NCAA tournament field is taking shape

The selection show is almost here! Here's the latest look at what we're expecting when it starts.

www.espn.com

 

[mysterio2525]

That team was also #155 in defense on Kenpom and a 10-seed. So a little different than this team and a bit of a Unicorn generally.

totally agree but that was a funny/sad coincidence

 

[Fly Illini Fly!]

We have to win out meaning potentially beating UM twice. So very low chance. I’d be thrilled to stay on the 2 line.

Here’s the scenario:

— St John’s beats UConn tomorrow. St. John’s wins the Big East tournament.

That would give UConn 2 more losses.

— Arizona handles business at home against Iowa State and Kansas. Arizona wins the B12 tournament.

That would give Houston 6 Ls and Iowa State 6 Ls.

— Florida, preferably, loses one more game somewhere; conference tournament or reg season.

IF those things happen, the Illini should have the inside track to the 1seed with wins in the 3 remaining reg season games AND a birth to the championship game. A loss in the championship game to 1seed Michigan should not hurt their cause (plus, most likely that game doesn’t hold much weight for the brackets).

I think perhaps what people don’t realize is how strong Illinois metrics are:

4th in the NET
4th in KPom
5th in Torvik.

The metrics hold significantly more weight in the seeding. The resume determines the bubble. It’s why we’re projected as a 2seed even after our UCLA loss.

 

[ejam21]

The win against Michigan would need to be convincing, like double-digit convincing, just to have a chance, in my opinion. Six-loss teams don't often get 1-seeds.

Yeah not super often but in the last 5 years there’s been 5 teams with 6 losses or more going into the tourney as a 1 seed (including us on 2021)

3 six loss teams and 2 seven loss teams with 1s

 

[mysterio2525]

one of interesting comparisons to teams on torvik was the 2014 Wisconsin team that went to final 4 but I actually think this Illinois team is closer to the 2015 Wisconsin team that went to the finals.

here is 2015 Wisconsin

and here is 2026 Illinois

really good offense, decent defense, low turnover rate by both teams, don't turn their opponents over a lot. great at free throws. similar shooting profiles percentage wise from overall and 3pt.

Illinois plays faster, rebounds better and shoots a lot more 3s but opponents shot better against Wisconsin from 3pt.

 

[PleaseMakeABowlGame]

Can we just lock this bracket in?

Men's Bracketology: How the projected NCAA tournament field is taking shape

The selection show is almost here! Here's the latest look at what we're expecting when it starts.

www.espn.com

I guess we can't since BYU just wrapped up a loss in which they looked abysmal.

Would prefer to not be in AZ's bracket.

 

[theNewGuy]

Here’s the scenario:

— St John’s beats UConn tomorrow. St. John’s wins the Big East tournament.

That would give UConn 2 more losses.

— Arizona handles business at home against Iowa State and Kansas. Arizona wins the B12 tournament.

That would give Houston 6 Ls and Iowa State 6 Ls.

— Florida, preferably, loses one more game somewhere; conference tournament or reg season.

IF those things happen, the Illini should have the inside track to the 1seed with wins in the 3 remaining reg season games AND a birth to the championship game. A loss in the championship game to 1seed Michigan should not hurt their cause (plus, most likely that game doesn’t hold much weight for the brackets).

I think perhaps what people don’t realize is how strong Illinois metrics are:

4th in the NET
4th in KPom
5th in Torvik.

The metrics hold significantly more weight in the seeding. The resume determines the bubble. It’s why we’re projected as a 2seed even after our UCLA loss.

I'm also pretty sure the committee takes injuries into consideration, so that only helps those 2 OT losses
We've only had 4 losses since the beginning of December and those all have come in OT or on buzzer beaters.
Our only loss by double digit points was to projected 1 seed UCONN at MSG in November

Now if the committee took this board into consideration, I think we might get a 5 seed...

 

[21ChampaignSt]

Northwestern now a Q1 win which puts us at 8 on the year. Tied for fourth most.

Wisconsin still 2 spots away from becoming a Q1 and Missouri is within 7 spots after last night's win over Tennessee.

IU falls to 10 spots away from Q1. But I'm not going to mourn that one.

 

[Second place is 1st loser]

I'm also pretty sure the committee takes injuries into consideration, so that only helps those 2 OT losses
We've only had 4 losses since the beginning of December and those all have come in OT or on buzzer beaters.
Our only loss by double digit points was to projected 1 seed UCONN at MSG in November

Now if the committee took this board into consideration, I think we might get a 5 seed...

Keep in mind that the committee had us as a 2 seed and the only game that we've played since then, we lost. We're not injured anymore, so in regards to our team, there are no more extenuating circumstances to consider unless we have another situation, but we're not even going to go there.

 

[NarrowJ]

Northwestern moves up 10 spots from 79 to 69 and our two games vs them are now Q1/Q2 rather than Q2/Q3

Missouri up from 61 to 57 with a win over Tennessee (need them at 50 or better)

Though, perhaps the most interesting result of the night is Minnesota moving up 3 spots after losing to Michigan by 10... if some of these teams we have that are just outside of Q1 (Missouri, Wisconsin) can just not get completely blown out in their remaining games, I think they can get there. No need to win vs top 10 teams, just don't lose by 20 and they will likely move up rather than down.

 

[Fighter of the Nightman]

I'll echo again that I agree with others that getting St. Louis is essential for this group, and that likely requires a #2 seed given how many other good teams would choose it as their first choices. If we win two games and find ourselves in the Sweet Sixteen, I have a lot of confidence in these guys to treat those games as an exciting challenge of a road trip ala our games at Purdue or Nebraska ... and I think we will come to play with our best effort. I'm slightly less confident that we will bring our "A Game" as far as intensity / effort goes in the First Weekend (Second Round, specifically...), and it would be really nice to (A) not have to travel too far and (B) have a very Illini-friendly crowd to possibly pull us through.

Then, of course, if we do find ourselves in Indy, I have absolute faith that it will be flooded with Illini fans.

 

[2qtslow]

I'll echo again that I agree with others that getting St. Louis is essential for this group, and that likely requires a #2 seed given how many other good teams would choose it as their first choices. If we win two games and find ourselves in the Sweet Sixteen, I have a lot of confidence in these guys to treat those games as an exciting challenge of a road trip ala our games at Purdue or Nebraska ... and I think we will come to play with our best effort. I'm slightly less confident that we will bring our "A Game" as far as intensity / effort goes in the First Weekend (Second Round, specifically...), and it would be really nice to (A) not have to travel too far and (B) have a very Illini-friendly crowd to possibly pull us through.

Then, of course, if we do find ourselves in Indy, I have absolute faith that it will be flooded with Illini fans.

If we get STL first weekend does that mean DC the second? I live in DC.

 

[Calvin]

We have to win out meaning potentially beating UM twice. So very low chance. I’d be thrilled to stay on the 2 line.

3 losses in 5 games will do that. That said, we're the last 2 seed in the bracket matrix, but with a broad consensus. To lose that, either we underperform down the stretch, or one of the teams right behind us overperforms (FL, NB, Zags, KS, possibly MSU). I would think losing to MI but winning the other two and a game in the BTT would be roughly average or around expectations. Beating Michigan would be very big given they've recently been considered the #1 overall seed. Also the Duke game was hyped by the Dookies as a huge win and to be consistent we'd also have to get a lot of credit if we did the same thing.

I can see a scenario where we get to the 1 line, but it would take some serious squinting.

 

[thefalcon5]

I think it’s super unlikely St John’s beat UConn. I do agree if it happens we could have a path.

Woh strong verbiage there considering UConn lost to a 14-13 Creighton team literally a week ago.

I would expect UConn to win, however St. John’s is absolutely talented enough to beat them.

 

[From the cheap seats]

While I’d love St. Louis in the first two rounds, I’m not sure it matters all that much given how the Illini fans travel and how well the Illini have played in places way more hostile than a NCAA site.