Hopefully patterns aren't real.
Week of 2/23 Bracketology
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not as wise but better looking
i like this trend but isn't this after the tourney though? weren't we #1 going into the tourney 2024. I could be wrong but I know we were #1 offense when we played Iowa State and they were #1 defense. that could be including first and second round data. I know Purdue, uconn and were top 3 most of the year that year in offense
Yes, BUT:
I would be SHOCKED if we don't end the year as the #1 offense.
Illinois offensive rating is currently 133.0. Purdue, in second place, is at 129.9. That's more than a 3pt difference at the moment.
I'm not disagreeing the we won't have the best offense and by a wide margin and that alone should get us a couple of wins in the tourney.... but I'm an Illini fan and been burned. that being said the efficiency profile of similar teams is very promising.
lot of second weekend and beyond with everyone at least 3 seed. plus our offense is light years ahead of anyone on the list other than last year's Duke team (if you can compare between years)
Unless that team was coached by Brad Underwood as Ok St. had a 1st round exist to Michigan.
We have run this every different way possible - and the odds relating to seed are what I already printed. The only correlation to predicatability is that teams that win either their conference tourney or the regular season out perform their seed by a just over 1 win.
Meaning if we won the conference tourney but were a 3 or 4 seed, there is still a better than 50% chance we get to the final 8.
In the end, its who you play.
The money making bet has been for the past 9 years, take the points versus a Kenpom spread.
On an adjusted efficiency ratings for the 2016-17 season, the Gonzaga Bulldogs had the highest-rated offense, finishing with an adjusted offensive rating of 82.51. They were widely considered the most efficient offense in the country during that NCAA
Oklahoma State finished finished 9-9 in the Big 12 in 2017. Michigan won the Big 10 tourney in 2017 and went to the Sweet 16 (lost to Oregon). They beat Okla State 92-91. Where does Brad Underwood come into the equation?
Kansas winning tonight was a plus.
REALLY hope St John’s can pull it off against UCONN.
If that happens…. beat Michigan and it’s all in front of us, IMO.
Root for Arizona against Kansas and Iowa State.
I KNOW we love to be of the “have no one to blame but ourselves” perspective… but MAN was this one choke job by Providence:
Watching it live was disgusting. Just my own bugbear moment this season from a non-Illinois game.
Watching it live was disgusting. Just my own bugbear moment this season from a non-Illinois game.
Do think we’ll need Kentucky to knock Florida. I don’t think it’s unreasonable, but that’d be another.
At the end of the day, take care of business on our end and good things will happen.
It would be interesting how the committee views
6 loss Iowa State vs 6 loss Houston vs 7 loss Illinois (if we get there).
If Illinois has the win over Michigan, that’s a better win than anything the other two teams have.
Obviously UConn’s there as well as Florida.
6 loss Iowa State vs 6 loss Houston vs 7 loss Illinois (if we get there).
If Illinois has the win over Michigan, that’s a better win than anything the other two teams have.
Obviously UConn’s there as well as Florida.
The win against Michigan would need to be convincing, like double-digit convincing, just to have a chance, in my opinion. Six-loss teams don't often get 1-seeds.
After the Houston loss, I did a quick exercise to see if I could make a case for us as a 1 seed. It looks good for us, but I ended up making a stronger case for Purdue. Hate when that happens.
In addition to NET and Q1 wins, I looked at the average of the results based metrics, average of the predictive metrics, and the average NET rank of each team's top 3 wins. Then, I looked at where those averages ranked among the other 5 teams. Last, I averaged those rankings for a composite ranking.
So, using Illinois as an example:
Net ranking is 4 - the best of the bunch, so we are ranked #1.
Result based metrics are currently 10,12, and 8, for an average of 10 which ranks #5.
Predictive metrics are currently 5, 6, and 4, for an average of 5 which ranks #2.
We have 7 Q1 wins which ranks #3.
And our top 3 wins are against NET 6,11, and 15 for an average of 10.7 which ranks #3.
The average of our rankings then is (1, 5, 2, 3, 3) / 5 = 2.8 which ranks 2nd to Purdue.
We're still right there. Keep in mind that during the preview the committee did last week, they indicated that quality of wins might be used as a sort of tie breaker. We're approximately 3rd in that regard right now, but a win against NET #1 Michigan would vault us to 1st.
Here's the full table
*I guess it should also be noted that us and Florida are the only ones with a Q2 loss so we'll likely get penalized for that. Would be great if Wisconsin could sweep their PNW roadtrip this week. Then, they're home agains Maryland and @Purdue to finish the season. Finish 3-1 and I imagine they'll move up to a Q1 (might not even take 3 depending on who they beat).
In addition to NET and Q1 wins, I looked at the average of the results based metrics, average of the predictive metrics, and the average NET rank of each team's top 3 wins. Then, I looked at where those averages ranked among the other 5 teams. Last, I averaged those rankings for a composite ranking.
So, using Illinois as an example:
Net ranking is 4 - the best of the bunch, so we are ranked #1.
Result based metrics are currently 10,12, and 8, for an average of 10 which ranks #5.
Predictive metrics are currently 5, 6, and 4, for an average of 5 which ranks #2.
We have 7 Q1 wins which ranks #3.
And our top 3 wins are against NET 6,11, and 15 for an average of 10.7 which ranks #3.
The average of our rankings then is (1, 5, 2, 3, 3) / 5 = 2.8 which ranks 2nd to Purdue.
We're still right there. Keep in mind that during the preview the committee did last week, they indicated that quality of wins might be used as a sort of tie breaker. We're approximately 3rd in that regard right now, but a win against NET #1 Michigan would vault us to 1st.
Here's the full table
| Team | NET (rank) | Result Based (rank) | Predictive (rank) | Q1 Wins (rank) | Top 3 Wins (rank) | Composite (rank) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Purdue | 6 (2) | 5.3 (2) | 7.7 (4) | 8 (1) | 15.7 (4) | 2.6 (1) |
| Illinois | 4 (1) | 10 (5) | 5 (2) | 7 (3) | 10.7 (3) | 2.8 (2) |
| Florida | 7 (3) | 10.7 (6) | 4.7 (1) | 8 (1) | 18.7 (6) | 3.4 (3) |
| UConn | 10 (6) | 4 (1) | 10.3 (6) | 7 (3) | 8 (1) | 3.4 (3) |
| Houston | 9 (5) | 6 (3) | 5.3 (3) | 7 (3) | 18 (5) | 3.8 (5) |
| ISU | 8 (4) | 8.7 (4) | 7.7 (4) | 6 (6) | 9.3 (2) | 4 (6) |
*I guess it should also be noted that us and Florida are the only ones with a Q2 loss so we'll likely get penalized for that. Would be great if Wisconsin could sweep their PNW roadtrip this week. Then, they're home agains Maryland and @Purdue to finish the season. Finish 3-1 and I imagine they'll move up to a Q1 (might not even take 3 depending on who they beat).
Thankfully "total # of losses" isn't a metric that gets evaluated as a gloss-over, stand-alone thing. The committee will dig into these teams deeper than you have here (# number of losses = no 1 seed... is all the thought you've put into this, apparently?)
In order to determine 1 seeds, the committee will look at:
Net Ranking
Analytical metrics (BPI, KenPom, Torvik, SOR, etcetera)
Quality Wins/Losses (Quad records)
SOS
Contextual factors (h2h, common opponents, player/coach injuries and availability)
Before even playing Michigan, we are already top 4 in NET & KenPom, 5th in Torvik, 6th in BPI
We've played a historically difficult schedule and have the most Q1A games of any team in the country
5 of our 6 losses were by 4 points or less
We have no bad losses
4 of our 6 losses involved player injury/availability
If you just blindly go by # of losses, then Miami OH would get a 1 seed (it just doesn't work like that)
100% not true. You’re only basing this logic off of last season.
In 2024, North Carolina got a one seed with 7 Ls.
In 2023, Kansas got a one seed with 7 Ls.
In 2022, Baylor got a one seed with 6 Ls AND Kansas got a one seed with 6 Ls.
In 2021, Illinois got a one seed with 6 Ls.
We will have by far the more superior metrics (obviously you’re referring to this scenario AFTER the conference tournaments; there’s no way we beat Michigan and also have 7 Ls to end the regular season — unless we drop one to Maryland / Oregon).
Illinois, even after their loss against UCLA, is currently 4th in the NET and 4th on Kenpom. Add a Michigan win to that, the gap will only widen.
While it would definitely help — if we beat scUM, I’m not sure we’d ABSOLUTELY need it to be seeded above them going into conf tourney week.
Look at their schedule — Florida is extremely void of big, marquee wins. We, meanwhile, already have wins @Purdue and @Nebraska. SEC is pretty weak this year.
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I think it’s super unlikely St John’s beat UConn. I do agree if it happens we could have a path.
I know one game shouldn’t decide things but it’s hard for me to get past the 20+ loss at home that a Purdue had. Feels borderline disqualifying if other metrics are close.
Here’s what Lunardi had BEFORE last night’s result of Houston losing to Kansas:
Illinois No.8 overall and Houston No.7 overall. My guess would be that flipped yesterday, and would definitely flip if we win Friday.
Iowa State still has to play @AZ.
UCONN is still the 1seed, so I absolutely think we need them to lose tomorrow.
Keep in mind that if St John’s and UCONN square off again in the Bib East tournament, St John’s will be playing a home game.
There’s essentially only two relevant teams in the Big East.
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With a win over Michigan, there’s no chance we don’t leapfrog Purdue.
What are the chances saint John’s beats Connecticut? I don’t see much of a pathway if Uconn wins that game.
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If we’re being honest
is there really much of a difference in being the top 2 seed, and being seeded in UConn’s bracket versus getting a 1 seed?
Say a team like Alabama’s the 4 seed. I could definitely see them beating uconn in sweet sixteen.
is there really much of a difference in being the top 2 seed, and being seeded in UConn’s bracket versus getting a 1 seed?
Say a team like Alabama’s the 4 seed. I could definitely see them beating uconn in sweet sixteen.
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