Week of 2/23 Bracketology

[March2TheArch]

UConn has pretty much wrapped up the 4th 1-seed with its historic win over St. Johns. They're gonna likely run the table.

I don't see Arizona picking up enough bad losses to drop off the 1 line.

Duke and Michigan are pretty much locks at this point.

Based on NCAA tournament history since 1985, No. 1 seeds are overwhelmingly favored to win the championship, with 26 of the last 40 champions being top seeds. While any team can win, the probability drops dramatically for lower seeds, with only a few seeds outside the top 4 ever winning the title.

Historical Championship Probability by Seed (Approximate)
No. 1 Seed: ~65% (26 of 40 titles)
No. 2 Seed: ~10-15%
No. 3 Seed: ~5-10%

---

Watching UConn demolish St. Johns holding them to no FGs for the last 17min of the game gave me nightmare flashbacks of 2024. It's fairly clear who this year's 1 seeds are.

 

[theNewGuy]

How likely is the committee to put us in a region with a 1 seed that we have played during the season? I'm assuming unlikely which means a 50/50 of getting Duke or Arizona.

 

[Chase321]

UConn has pretty much wrapped up the 4th 1-seed with its historic win over St. Johns. They're gonna likely run the table.

I don't see Arizona picking up enough bad losses to drop off the 1 line.

Duke and Michigan are pretty much locks at this point.

Based on NCAA tournament history since 1985, No. 1 seeds are overwhelmingly favored to win the championship, with 26 of the last 40 champions being top seeds. While any team can win, the probability drops dramatically for lower seeds, with only a few seeds outside the top 4 ever winning the title.

Historical Championship Probability by Seed (Approximate)
No. 1 Seed: ~65% (26 of 40 titles)
No. 2 Seed: ~10-15%
No. 3 Seed: ~5-10%

---

Watching UConn demolish St. Johns holding them to no FGs for the last 17min of the game gave me nightmare flashbacks of 2024. It's fairly clear who this year's 1 seeds are.

Those are probably the one seeds but be careful of recency bias. If Iowa State had just demolished Purdue at Mackey last night instead of earlier this season you might’ve said the same thing about them. I don’t see any impressive wins by St. John’s outside of the big east and their win at home over UConn. So I’m not sure if that win last night says more about UConn or the rest of the big east.

 

[jrichisamazing]

UConn has pretty much wrapped up the 4th 1-seed with its historic win over St. Johns. They're gonna likely run the table.

I don't see Arizona picking up enough bad losses to drop off the 1 line.

Duke and Michigan are pretty much locks at this point.

Based on NCAA tournament history since 1985, No. 1 seeds are overwhelmingly favored to win the championship, with 26 of the last 40 champions being top seeds. While any team can win, the probability drops dramatically for lower seeds, with only a few seeds outside the top 4 ever winning the title.

Historical Championship Probability by Seed (Approximate)
No. 1 Seed: ~65% (26 of 40 titles)
No. 2 Seed: ~10-15%
No. 3 Seed: ~5-10%

---

Watching UConn demolish St. Johns holding them to no FGs for the last 17min of the game gave me nightmare flashbacks of 2024. It's fairly clear who this year's 1 seeds are.

Still a lot of basketball left my friend. UConn had a 25% chance at a 1 seed on Torvik yesterday and it jumped to 38% today.

 

[Calvin]

Based on NCAA tournament history since 1985, No. 1 seeds are overwhelmingly favored to win the championship, with 26 of the last 40 champions being top seeds. While any team can win, the probability drops dramatically for lower seeds, with only a few seeds outside the top 4 ever winning the title.

Historical Championship Probability by Seed (Approximate)
No. 1 Seed: ~65% (26 of 40 titles)
No. 2 Seed: ~10-15%
No. 3 Seed: ~5-10%

Based on what I've seen this year, I'd handicap the 1 seeds with an even higher percentage to take home the title. 3 of those teams have a very high floor IMO, and that consistency plays well in the first half of the bracket where you need to put away weaker teams having a great game. Vegas really likes Mich, Duke, and AZ.

 

[2qtslow]

How likely is the committee to put us in a region with a 1 seed that we have played during the season? I'm assuming unlikely which means a 50/50 of getting Duke or Arizona.

Wouldn't they take our preferences into account first? We can't have a region with Michigan. If we are the top two seed we'd get our next choice, regardless of whether we'd played them before so long as they are not a B1G team.

Amiright?

 

[Piotyr]

Wouldn't they take our preferences into account first? We can't have a region with Michigan. If we are the top two seed we'd get our next choice, regardless of whether we'd played them before so long as they are not a B1G team.

Amiright?

Only the #1 overall seed gets their preferences taken into account. Everyone else is slotted according to geographical proximity and competitive balance.

 

[Piotyr]

Metrics bracket update!

Auto bids (highest NET as of this morning):
ACC - Duke (1)
B1G - Michigan (2)
B12 - Arizona (3)
WCC - Gonzaga (5)
SEC - Florida (6)
BE - UConn (9)
A10 - Saint Louis (24)
MW - Utah State (25)
MAC - Miami-OH (48)
American - Tulsa (49)
MVC - Belmont (52)
SLnd - McNeese (59)
Ivy - Yale (64)
BSth - High Point (72)
WAC - Utah Valley (80)
CUSA - Liberty (89)
CAA - UNCW (91)
BW - Hawaii (106)
Summit - North Dakota State (113)
SoCon - ETSU (126)
Pat - Navy (132)
SB - Troy (137)
BSky - Portland St. (138)
ASun - Austin Peay (142)
Horz - Wright St. (145)
MAAC - Marist (170)
OVC - UT Martin (189)
NEC - LIU (199)
MEAC - Howard (210)
AEast - Vermont (224)
SWAC - Bethune-Cookman (254)

At-large field (top 37 resume average): Nebraska, Purdue, Iowa State, Houston, Illinois, Virginia, Alabama, Kansas, Michigan State, Texas Tech, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, North Carolina, St. John's, Villanova, BYU, UCF, Louisville, Saint Mary's, Iowa, Miami FL, Kentucky, Wisconsin, Georgia, Missouri, UCLA, Clemson, NC State, Texas A&M, SMU, Santa Clara, Auburn, California, Ohio State, USC, Texas, TCU

Just missed: VCU, Indiana, New Mexico, Virginia Tech, San Diego State, Seton Hall, Oklahoma State, SFA, Akron, South Florida

Seeding (based on efficiency average, auto bids in bold, change from last week in parenthesis):

1 (1). Duke (+2)
1 (1). Michigan (-1)
3 (1). Arizona (-1)
4 (1). Illinois (+1)
5 (2). Florida (+1)
6 (2). Purdue (+1)
7 (2). Houston (-3)
8 (2). Iowa State (+0)
9 (3). UConn (+0)
10 (3). Gonzaga (+0)
11 (3). Nebraska (+0)
12 (3). Michigan State (+4)
13 (4). Kansas (+0)
14 (4). Virginia (+5)
15 (4). Texas Tech (+0)
16 (4). Vanderbilt (-4)
17 (5). Louisville (-4)
18 (5). Arkansas (-1)
19 (5). Alabama (+1)
20 (5). Tennessee (-2)
21 (6). St. John's (+1)
22 (6). Saint Mary's (+6)
23 (6). Iowa (+3)
24 (6). BYU (-1)
25 (7). Saint Louis (-4)
26 (7). Utah State (-2)
27 (7). North Carolina (-2)
28 (7). NC State (+2)
29 (8). Villanova (-2)
30 (8). Wisconsin (-1)
31 (8). SMU (+6)
32 (8). Kentucky (+1)
33 (9). Miami FL (+5)
34 (9). Clemson (-3)
35 (9). Santa Clara (+5)
36 (9). Georgia (+6)
37 (10). Texas A&M (-1)
38 (10). Auburn (-4)
39 (10). Texas (-4)
40 (10). Ohio State (-1)
41 (11). UCLA (+0)
42 (11*). UCF (+2)
43 (11*). TCU (NEW)
44 (11*). Missouri (+1)
45 (11). Tulsa (+1)
46 (11*). USC (-3)
47 (12). Belmont (+0)
48 (12). McNeese (+0)
49 (12). Miami OH (+0)
50 (12). Yale (+0)
51 (13). Utah Valley (+2)
52 (13). High Point (+0)
53 (13). Liberty (-2)
54 (13). UNCW (+0)
55 (14). Hawaii (+0)
56 (14). North Dakota State (NEW)
57 (14). ETSU (+0)
58 (14). Navy (+4)
59 (15). Troy (+0)
60 (15). Portland State (-2)
61 (15). Austin Peay (-1)
62 (15). Wright State (-1)
63 (16). Marist (+0)
64 (16). UT Martin (+0)
65 (16*). LIU (+0)
66 (16*). Howard (+1)
67 (16*). Vermont (-1)
68 (16*). Bethune-Cookman (+0)

First 4 out: Indiana, San Diego State, New Mexico, VCU
Next 4 out: Cincinnati, Washington, Baylor, South Florida

 

[Piotyr]

Taking a look at the opposite end of the bracketology outlook: teams whose seasons are ending as soon as this weekend.

This year, there are 365 Division 1 men's teams. Most of these still actually control their own destiny towards winning the national championship! Easy, just get to your conference tournament, win that, make the NCAA tournament, and win that! Couldn't be simpler.

Unfortunately, though, some teams just don't get even that chance.

First, 4 teams are ineligible due to the rules in the transition to Division 1: Le Moyne (NEC KP 294), Mercyhurst (NEC KP 286), New Haven (NEC KP 332), and West Georgia (ASun KP 308). Three of them still get to play in their conference tournament (sorry New Haven, too new!). If West Georgia wins the ASun, the auto bid will go to the regular season champion. If one of Le Moyne or Mercyhurst (both tied for 3rd in conference) makes the NEC final, the other team in the final gets the auto bid. If the NEC final is Le Moyne vs Mercyhurst, then the NEC will play a qualifier game between the other two semifinalists for the NCAA auto bid (I am now rooting for this scenario).

Other teams won't make their conference tournaments:

America East - 8 teams make the tournament, 9th place team sits out. Binghamton is sitting 2.5 games out of 8th with 3 to play, it's not looking good.

American - 10 of 13 teams make the conference tournament. UTSA (KP 339) is 6 games out with 2 to play, so their season will end March 8. Rice and East Carolina are 1.5 games out with 3 to play, so they're hanging in there.

A10 - All 14 teams make it.

ACC - 15 of 18 teams make it (which, while weird, is the same thing the B1G did last year). Notre Dame, Pitt, BC and Georgia Tech are all fighting for that last spot so they can lose the first Tuesday instead of not play at all.

ASun - All 12 teams make it, but if West Georgia wins, the regular season champ gets the auto bid. Right now, that's Austin Peay by 1 game with 1 to play.

Big 12 - All 16 teams make it.

Big East - All 11 teams make it.

Big Sky - All 10 teams make it.

Big South - All 9 teams make it.

B1G - All 18 teams make it.

Big West - 8 of 11 teams make it. Cal State Bakersfield (KP 326) and UC Riverside (KP 263) can't make it, and Long Beach State is 4 back with 4 games to play.

CAA - All 13 teams make it.

CUSA - 10 of 12 teams make it. Everyone can still sneak in yet, as there is a 4 way tie for 9th. Pop quiz: Can you name 4 current CUSA teams? Yikes.

Horizon - All 11 teams make it.

Ivy - 4 of 8 teams make it. Yale and Harvard have clinched spots, and everyone else is still eligible for the last 2 spots. Last place Brown at 3-8 is just 2 games out of 4th.

MAAC - 10 of 13 teams make it. All 10 spots have been clinched with a game to play. Rider (KP 357), Niagara (KP 344) and Canisius (KP 348) have been eliminated and their seasons will end this weekend.

MAC - 8 of 13 teams make it. Technically, all 13 teams still have a shot, since even last place Eastern Michigan is 2 games out with 2 to play. 5 spots have been clinched (Miami OH, Akron, Kent State, Ohio, Toledo).

MEAC - 7 of 8 teams make it, as Coppin State (KP 364) is academically ineligible, but still has 3 regular season games left.

MVC - All 11 teams make it.

MWC - All 12 teams make it, even 0-17 Air Force.

NEC - Talked about it earlier, but 8 of 10 teams make it, and New Haven won't play in it. So, one of Chicago State, Saint Francis or Wagner will miss the tournament, while Le Moyne and Mercyhurst will make the tournament despite being ineligible for the NCAA tournament. Weird scenario.

OVC - 8 of 11 teams make it. Western Illinois (KP 362) and Southern Indiana (KP 336) are eliminated with 1 game to play, while Eastern Illinois is 1 game out with 2 to play, so they can still sneak in.

Pac-12 - Just kidding, there is no Pac-12.

Patriot - All 10 teams make it.

SEC - All 16 teams make it.

SoCon - 8 of 10 teams make it. VMI (KP 360) is eliminated at 5 games out with 2 to play. The Citadel is a half game out with 1 to play, so they could potentially still sneak in.

Southland - 8 of 12 teams make it. These teams play a 22 game conference season, and nobody is more than 2 games out with 2 to play, so everyone is still eligible.

SWAC - 10 of 12 teams make it. Mississippi Valley State (KP 365) has been eliminated being 5 games out with 3 to play, but there's a tie for 10th so everyone else can still sneak in.

Summit - All 9 teams make it.

Sun Belt - All 14 teams make it.

WCC - All 12 teams make it, but they do the crazy ladder bracket, so any bottom 4 team would have to win 6 games in 6 days.

WAC - All 7 teams make it. RIP WAC.

 

[FloridaMan]

EM has some super graphs that capture the analytics very well. Thought this one is particularly good and accurately reflects the feeling around most teams chances.

 

[Piotyr]

And yes, this is the final year of the WAC. Next year, 4 of the teams are leaving for the Big West/Big Sky, and the other 3 are joining with half the ASun to form the United Athletic Conference (this is where Austin Peay will be next season).

 

[Illini2010-11]

And yes, this is the final year of the WAC. Next year, 4 of the teams are leaving for the Big West/Big Sky, and the other 3 are joining with half the ASun to form the United Athletic Conference (this is where Austin Peay will be next season).

So in net, there will still be the same number of basketball conferences next year (i.e., number of auto bids)? It is always hard to keep up with this.

 

[Piotyr]

So in net, there will still be the same number of basketball conferences next year (i.e., number of auto bids)? It is always hard to keep up with this.

There will be one extra, as the Pac-12 is making a comeback. While basically killing the WCC and the MWC.

 

[Piotyr]

I've seen a bunch of questions today about which teams are going to make the tournament and which aren't, so looking at projections, here's a quick "Bubble Watch" for this year's tournament:

Locks - 99% chance or higher (33):
ACC (6): Duke, Virginia, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Miami FL
B12 (7): Arizona, Iowa State, Houston, Kansas, Texas Tech, BYU, UCF
B1G (7): Michigan, Illinois, Purdue, Nebraska, Michigan State, Iowa, Wisconsin
BE (3): UConn, St. John's, Villanova
SEC (6): Florida, Alabama, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky
WCC (2): Gonzaga, Saint Mary's
A10 (1): Saint Louis
MWC (1): Utah State

Should be in - 70-99% chance (8)
ACC : SMU, Clemson
B1G: UCLA, Indiana
SEC : Georgia, Texas A&M, Texas, Missouri

Bubble - 10-70% chance (13 for ~4 spots)
A10: VCU
American: South Florida
ACC: California, Virginia Tech
BE: Seton Hall
B12: TCU
B1G: Ohio State, USC
MAC: Miami OH
SEC: Auburn
WCC: Santa Clara
MWC: San Diego State, New Mexico

Lottery-type chances: (under 10%): Cincinnati, Belmont, Boise State, Stanford, Tulsa, Nevada, West Virginia, Grand Canyon, McNeese, Dayton, Oklahoma State, Yale, Akron, Washington, Oklahoma, LSU, Colorado State, SFA, Florida State, Liberty, High Point

Not going to happen (less than 0.1%): EVERYONE ELSE

 

[Altuve27]

I've seen a bunch of questions today about which teams are going to make the tournament and which aren't, so looking at projections, here's a quick "Bubble Watch" for this year's tournament:

Locks - 99% chance or higher (33):
ACC (6): Duke, Virginia, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Miami FL
B12 (7): Arizona, Iowa State, Houston, Kansas, Texas Tech, BYU, UCF
B1G (7): Michigan, Illinois, Purdue, Nebraska, Michigan State, Iowa, Wisconsin
BE (3): UConn, St. John's, Villanova
SEC (6): Florida, Alabama, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky
WCC (2): Gonzaga, Saint Mary's
A10 (1): Saint Louis
MWC (1): Utah State

Should be in - 70-99% chance (8)
ACC : SMU, Clemson
B1G: UCLA, Indiana
SEC : Georgia, Texas A&M, Texas, Missouri

Bubble - 10-70% chance (13 for ~4 spots)
A10: VCU
American: South Florida
ACC: California, Virginia Tech
BE: Seton Hall
B12: TCU
B1G: Ohio State, USC
MAC: Miami OH
SEC: Auburn
WCC: Santa Clara
MWC: San Diego State, New Mexico

Lottery-type chances: (under 10%): Cincinnati, Belmont, Boise State, Stanford, Tulsa, Nevada, West Virginia, Grand Canyon, McNeese, Dayton, Oklahoma State, Yale, Akron, Washington, Oklahoma, LSU, Colorado State, SFA, Florida State, Liberty, High Point

Not going to happen (less than 0.1%): EVERYONE ELSE

UCLA is getting in. That win over us carries a lot of weight, and they also have beaten Purdue. They still have Nebraska at home, and that would be another quality win for them. That is a talented basketball team that has underperformed.

Indiana, on the other hand, is in trouble. Losing @Illinois and @Purdue is certainly understandable. Losing by 100 in those two games is not. Then they followed that up by losing to a PUTRID Northwestern team at home.

They may have to beat MSU the way things are going.

 

[Fly Illini Fly!]

Here’s the scenario for a 2seed in the BTT if we lose tomorrow (just precaution before the meltdowns):

— MSU loses to IU and Michigan
— Nebraska loses one of Iowa/UCLA/USC
— Purdue doesn’t lose to OSU/WISC/NW

 

[BrownTown]

Here’s the scenario for a 2seed in the BTT if we lose tomorrow (just precaution before the meltdowns):

— MSU loses to IU and Michigan
— Nebraska loses one of Iowa/UCLA/USC
— Purdue doesn’t lose to OSU/WISC/NW

Give me a 2 or 3 seed and let us play MSU again. Just not a 4 where we don't get matched up with them again.

 

[Fly Illini Fly!]

Here’s the scenario for a 2seed in the BTT if we lose tomorrow (just precaution before the meltdowns):

— MSU loses to IU and Michigan
— Nebraska loses one of Iowa/UCLA/USC
— Purdue doesn’t lose to OSU/WISC/NW

Here’s what I find interesting about this.

This would be the bracket with the scenario I laid out. Illinois as the 2seed:

HOWEVER, if we take out Nebraska losing to UCLA, we’d be the 3seed but this would be the bracket:

Not completely sure the first is THAT much of a better draw than the second.

 

[thefalcon5]

Are we glad Purdue lost?

I think so, both for seeding in the btt and the NCAAT.

 

[Second place is 1st loser]

Are we glad Purdue lost?

I think so, both for seeding in the btt and the NCAAT.

Absolutely

 

[fatboyslim]

Here’s the scenario for a 2seed in the BTT if we lose tomorrow (just precaution before the meltdowns):

— MSU loses to IU and Michigan
— Nebraska loses one of Iowa/UCLA/USC
— Purdue doesn’t lose to OSU/WISC/NW

What would be really interesting is if we won out, Michigan lost out, Nebraska loses one, and MSU won out. I'm just included Nebraska because they still have 4 losses and another loss gets them out of the way at 5 losses. Then you'd have a 3 way tie for first. In that scenario I think MSU would win the tiebreaker because they'd be 2-1 against the other two teams, we'd be 1-1 and Michigan would be 1-2.

Of course I'd rather us win out and Michigan lose out. If they lose to us tomorrow, Michigan losing out I don't think will happen but I could see it as a possibility because they would still have at Iowa and MSU at home

 

[Fighter of the Nightman]

Here’s what I find interesting about this.

This would be the bracket with the scenario I laid out. Illinois as the 2seed:

View attachment 47864

HOWEVER, if we take out Nebraska losing to UCLA, we’d be the 3seed but this would be the bracket:

View attachment 47865

Not completely sure the first is THAT much of a better draw than the second.

I’d take the second bracket 10 times out of 10 myself, lol.

 

[Fly Illini Fly!]

I’d take the second bracket 10 times out of 10 myself, lol.

Agreed!

 

[illiniguy1234]

Are we glad Purdue lost?

I think so, both for seeding in the btt and the NCAAT.

I believe we just need two wins to clinch a triple-bye now. I also think it's most likely if we lose tomorrow that we would be the 4 and Purdue would be the 5. I don't think I would hate playing them on that Friday to seal up a spot as a 2 seed and get the St. Louis draw. Or we could just win tomorrow and seal the 2 seed that way.

 

[mysterio2525]

I’d take the second bracket 10 times out of 10 myself, lol.

so is this just you would rather play Nebraska vs Purdue. that's the only difference? I would agree if that's the only difference