I hope Fears doesn't do any of those things because he is on Michigan St.
Pregame: Illinois vs Michigan, Friday, February 27th, 7:00pm CT, FOX
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Nope. Against Purdue we shot 47% from 3 and had 13 offensive rebounds (45% of our missed FGs resulted in an Illinois offensive rebound in that game).
I think your point is still valid, but it would be more accurate to look at % rather than raw numbers since their opponents often miss more shots. They were out-rebounded 6 times according to that:
Opp OR% OpOR% OR% diff
Duke 22.2 39.4 -17.2
Penn St. 20.0 33.3 -13.3
Maryland 25.0 35.5 -10.5
Gonzaga 16.1 23.5 -7.4
UCLA 30.4 36.1 -5.7
Michigan St. 34.4 37.5 -3.1
Penn St and Maryland still really stand out there
We've only been out-rebounded in 4 games:
Opp OR% OpOR% OR% diff
Tennessee 32.4% 53.5% -21.1
Michigan St. 1.3% 39.5% -8.2
Connecticut 31% 35.9% -4.9
Wisconsin 27.6% 31.8% -4.2
And what did I say it would take to win? 16-18 threes tonight. Against Purdue, 38 of our 56 shots were three.
So, 38 threes and 18 twos. The shots we missed, we chased down. Drej and Davis were a combined 2 of 10 from three. We chased a lot of balls down.
Against Purdue, we were 18 of 38. If we do that tonight, we win. That's the elixir.
I feel like you're starting to argue just to argue. It doesn't take any deep analysis to figure out our path.
To think Illinois, the 3rd best offensive rebounding team in the country can't do the same is woefully ignorant.
In reality, the EXPECTATION needs to be that we'll own the offensive boards. Nearly 40% (39.6) of Illinois missed shots have resulted in an offensive rebound this season.
Michigan is 72nd in DREB%.
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Some have mentioned before.....
On Aday Mara...get him out of the paint with high ball screens with a shooting big man (tomi, z and mirk)
On Cadeu...Physical, ball-pressure defense on him to prevent easy entry passes to Yaxel Lendeborg and Mara.. wisconsin defense on him in 2d half forced ball in other hands which totally interrupted their offense.
We will have to be our best... and shoot well.
This may be a Coaches chess match.
i expect WE WILL WIN!
On Aday Mara...get him out of the paint with high ball screens with a shooting big man (tomi, z and mirk)
On Cadeu...Physical, ball-pressure defense on him to prevent easy entry passes to Yaxel Lendeborg and Mara.. wisconsin defense on him in 2d half forced ball in other hands which totally interrupted their offense.
We will have to be our best... and shoot well.
This may be a Coaches chess match.
i expect WE WILL WIN!
Tennessee and Michigan State are both elite offensive rebounding units.
TENN is 1st in the nation at offensive rebounding (45% on the season). Michigan State is 6th (38.5%).
altgeld88
- Arlington, Virginia
Pulled up MGoBlog to see their view of the world this afternoon. The morose among us should read it it they want to cheer up. Man, I can not wait for the opening tip. (Yeah, I know. You can drive a truck through that one. Knock yourself out.)
Big surprise: they buried the lede:
Michigan is no stranger to livid road arenas any more but this one will be Mackey 2.0, against a team better suited to get after Michigan's defense. It might be good that Michigan is coming off a somewhat lackluster win against Minnesota in which they blazed the nets from three, because they have to stay in contact with Illinois from 3 to win. Not beat them, but stay in the ballpark.
Normally you look at an opponent team and you're like "well, this isn't great and maybe Michigan can take advantage of that." Here the holes are pretty hard to spot. I will 100% say "it's a make or miss league" after this game.
mgoblog.com
Big surprise: they buried the lede:
Michigan is no stranger to livid road arenas any more but this one will be Mackey 2.0, against a team better suited to get after Michigan's defense. It might be good that Michigan is coming off a somewhat lackluster win against Minnesota in which they blazed the nets from three, because they have to stay in contact with Illinois from 3 to win. Not beat them, but stay in the ballpark.
Normally you look at an opponent team and you're like "well, this isn't great and maybe Michigan can take advantage of that." Here the holes are pretty hard to spot. I will 100% say "it's a make or miss league" after this game.
Hoops Preview: Illinois 2025-26 | mgoblog
THE ESSENTIALS WHAT #2 Michigan (25-2, 16-1 B10) vs #4 Illinois (22-6, 13-4 B10) WHERE Long Road Distillers ArenaChampaign, IL WHEN 8 PMTHE LINE Kenpom: M -1Torvik: M +1TELEVISION FOXPBP: Jason Benetti(!)Color: Bill Raftery(!)THE OVERVIEW When we reviewed the Big Ten during our season preview...
Yeah that makes sense, I guess we should assume they shoot better than we do? Idk about that, have to see.
Regardless though. we are statistically superior in just about every rebounding statistic (let alone just offensive rebs) so the thought that we just are giving up this huge advantage on the glass is silly no matter how we cut it.
The analysis that’s been done is only one single team has needed 12 threes to play a close game with them. Teams have made single digit three point shots and played close games against them. This idea that we have to make 16-18 threes is ridiculous. Duke beat them by 5 and made 6 threes.
As will 210.
Duke had Cam Boozer who also darn near had a triple double. If you're going to tell me that our bigs will have a legitimate amount of success in the paint, I'll buy what you're selling. If you're telling me our guards can get to the rim and finish, I'll buy what you're selling. Actually, if you're going to tell me that we're going to make a concerted effort to take the ball to the rim, I'm on board.
You're pointing out what other teams have done versus what we do. We shot a LOT of threes. Our fans, in the game threads, are screaming to quit shooting them and drive the ball. That style of play is not who we are and it's not what Brad believes in. I don't like his analytics takes, but they are what they are and we play how we play.
When you shoot 35, 40+ threes, no, you can't make only 12. When you only take 26, yes, that's fine.
You're moving the goalposts. You claimed that if we were going to offensive rebound well, it would need to be because we missed a lot of threes. I gave you a game in which we shot phenomenal from 3 and were also phenomenal on the boards.
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Cam Boozer had a good game… do we not have anyone capable of having a good game?
Also we don’t shoot 35-40 threes… that has happened only very occasionally… go back and look at the stats I posted, those teams all shot a ton of 3s sans Duke and made a pretty poor percentage of them… and still played them close or won
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There’s been a lot of hyperbole around “what championship and final four teams do and do not” on here.
If that is the final score, that would be the first result all year where I’d agree that is not what a title contending team would do.
I think tempo will play a massive role in this game. We have to play the game we want to play—in the half court on both ends.
They love running, we love walking. Gotta make them uncomfortable.
Fears?
If this was already posted, I apologize. but.. looks like some team drama.
We average 11.3 made threes per game(7th in the country) and shoot 35.7%(83rd in the country). We take and make a lot of threes. 12 made ones would be less than 1 above our average. It's ok that this is our style. I'm not a fan of it because one bad shooting night and you're done in a one and one. On the other hand, we're 22-6 and our offensive efficiency is high and that hard to argue with. Again, not a fan of it, but it's how we're built.
We have a lot of very, very good players and guys who are capable of having great games. Keaton has gone on big time heaters from the perimeter (obviously). Tomi, Davis, Mirk, Ben....they've all gone on heaters...from the perimeter. That is all capable of happening tonight. We have no true post presence. We have guys who want to pass out of the post, but no bullies to combat athletic bullies.
That was my point about Boozer. He lives in the paint and is going to be a top 5 pick in the draft for a reason. He's that good.
Our bigs want to be beyond the arc and is clearly where they're most effective. Again, that's fine, but it would be nice to have a Morez on our side to deal with a Morez type player on the other side.
To sit here and believe that our style is optimal for beating a team with an NBA front line is silly. We have to step out and at least make our average of 11 per game. Have other teams had to do it? No. This is how we play. There are literally only 6 teams in the entire country that make more. Brad is about three outcomes. Layups/dunks, free throws or threes. He hates anything in between.
1)Can we get to the rim and finish?
2)Can we get to the line and make them?
3)Can we shoot a minimum of 35% from three?
4)Will we be able to control our offensive glass and just as importantly, only allow one shot on the defensive end.
If 3 and 4 don't go well, we'll get hurt in transition, which is critical because we have to play at a controlled pace.
What I'm hearing you say is that you expect us to dominate both boards(because of the numbers vs teams we've played) and that the number of threes that we make doesn't matter because it's a figment of the imagination that we're a team that lives by the three.
If that's what you're saying, that's fine. IMO, if we don't hit the three, we lose because they'll have the ability to take most else away. The refs will be a fallback, then Brad will be the fallback should things go sideways because people will put our reliance on the three into question.
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