Still believe this is a 2nd weekend+ team. However, I don’t think it happens if the twins + Andrej are this shaky. Tomi & Z are a combined 24% from 3 over the last 5 games and not rebounding well. I question how Andrej handles pressure. We can’t afford this in March.
Illini Basketball 2025-2026
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Illini4Chief
- TENNESSEE
Preparing myself for quick exit in March Truly Madness
Random question: other than TSJ, what other big boy money player has played at least to expectations?
It seems to me all of our stars since NIL started are unpaid or diamonds in the rough. I don’t think guys like Domask, Mirk, KJ, Wagler, or Tomi (last year) were making the big bucks. But they were our best players.
I know it’s easy to dig in Andrej after last games performance but if he’s our high money guy, ROI is low. But going back to Mayer/Clark they were our big fish outside TSJ and really underperformed. Ben last year was reportedly a big money guy who crapped out (surprisingly playing above his worth this year). Will was decent (not sure his payout), Kylan I guess you could argue has played to apparent cost.
Props to the staff for finding undervalued guys but our the bigger the salary cap hit, the worse the return seems to be. And how some of these off seasons have gone, I really wonder if the staffs struggling to bid for top tier talent, drops down level and overpays, and we get the results we do.
It seems to me all of our stars since NIL started are unpaid or diamonds in the rough. I don’t think guys like Domask, Mirk, KJ, Wagler, or Tomi (last year) were making the big bucks. But they were our best players.
I know it’s easy to dig in Andrej after last games performance but if he’s our high money guy, ROI is low. But going back to Mayer/Clark they were our big fish outside TSJ and really underperformed. Ben last year was reportedly a big money guy who crapped out (surprisingly playing above his worth this year). Will was decent (not sure his payout), Kylan I guess you could argue has played to apparent cost.
Props to the staff for finding undervalued guys but our the bigger the salary cap hit, the worse the return seems to be. And how some of these off seasons have gone, I really wonder if the staffs struggling to bid for top tier talent, drops down level and overpays, and we get the results we do.
I've kind of been in this camp for a while. Just given Brad's historical tourney performance and our up and down play/reliance on the 3.
We could absolutely get to the S16 with the right draw and hot shooting, but need some luck in that regard.
Imagine where we'd be if Wagler played to his ranking. This would be a 10-12+ loss team, thank goodness for Wagler.
Illinicpa14
- Chicago
Agree the past few years but…
Pre NIL but if you don’t think we were comping Ayo and Kofi, I got some beachfront property to sell you.
With respect to Morez Johnson, we had a signed deal for him to come back for what $900,000???..Then others got in his head and said he could have gotten more (the contention that he wanted to shoot from the outside more is garbage)...On hindsight, should we have give him more or stick to our dignity and a deal is a deal???
I really hate this type of thinking. This goes for like every team.
The only thing i see missing is blaming the bias announcers that hate Illinois.
100% this.
In Kofi’s case…
Jamaican paradise > Champaign corn
Jamaican paradise < Champaign corn +
I don't know, but I imagine it's better. We are a good road team and I think Quad 1A definition handicaps the home advantage too significantly tbh. It's top 15 for home and top 40 for away. Strange to me that theoretically beating #40 away is in the same ratified air as, say, beating #2 at home (UM's current NET ranking).
OrangeBlue98
Iowa is not in a great spot right now (LvilleILL1)
- Des Moines, IA
Pretty much like the Packers in the NFL. They do great picking in the lower rounds, but their high draft picks and big-time free agent/trade targets seem to flame out. I’ll keep Parsons out of this for now until we see how he comes back from his ACL injury.
That seems hard to believe, but if it is even close, compare that to home similar records by: Houston, Kansas, Iowa State, Purdue, Arizona, UConn, Duke and others I may have forgotten.
DB11Headband
- Chicago Burbs
Elite 8 should still be the goal. Obviously last night showed we’re a tier (plus?) below the true big boys this season but no excuse to not still make a run with the talent on this team.
Less than E8 will be a disappointing tournament.
21-24 by my count including post season.
All depends on what you classify as "expectations" and "worth". In theory, you could win a championship and still have individuals not perform to expectations - I think that could happen with Florida this year with Xavian Lee. But if you win, then you probably consider Xavian Lee a "hit" because he contributed to a title or F4 team.
Kasparas is a great example. He was 15/5/6 as an 18-year-old and first round NBA pick. Because we were a 6 seed, we kinda shrug it off, but id argue as an individual, he was absolutely a big money guy that worked out.
OrangeBlue98
Iowa is not in a great spot right now (LvilleILL1)
- Des Moines, IA
This is pretty much the tagline for Illinois basketball.
This stat from Werner gobsmacked me:
Since the 2020-2021 season: Illinois is 4-10 in quad 1A games at home...
Since the 2020-2021 season: Illinois is 4-10 in quad 1A games at home...
Spent some time thinking about this again today. We are in a weird space with BU. He's good enough to keep us in the top 4-5 every year of the B1G, but tourney success has been lacking outside TSJ's last year.
Is this a bad place to be? Absolutely not. The "it could be worse" crowd is right in that we've seen what it can look like with a post-2006 Weber or a John Groce at the helm. We don't want to be back there.
But, the "it could be better" crowd also has valid points, especially around tourney success.
So we are in this middle ground that is pretty decent, but still wanting more. I called it Bo Pelini territory, but maybe more aptly James Franklin is a better comp given our conference success.
I honestly go back and forth. Ultimately, I want to hang that NC banner before I die. We've been so close a couple of times, so painful to not get over that hump.
Is this a bad place to be? Absolutely not. The "it could be worse" crowd is right in that we've seen what it can look like with a post-2006 Weber or a John Groce at the helm. We don't want to be back there.
But, the "it could be better" crowd also has valid points, especially around tourney success.
So we are in this middle ground that is pretty decent, but still wanting more. I called it Bo Pelini territory, but maybe more aptly James Franklin is a better comp given our conference success.
I honestly go back and forth. Ultimately, I want to hang that NC banner before I die. We've been so close a couple of times, so painful to not get over that hump.
I looked at the correlations between our per-game Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Efficiencies and various metrics of our opponents (from Torvik's main ranking page). Here's what I found:
Our adjusted offense has not been correlated with our opponents' defensive rating. So we (on average) perform about how we should against good and bad defenses. The only metric it has been correlated with (of the ones on that page) is our opponents' defensive 3pt attempt rate- we did better than expected against teams whose opponents have attempted a lot of 3s. That makes sense, but I expected to find some other correlations, like performing worse against good defenses or "tough" teams (i.e. good at rebounding).
Likewise, our adjusted defense has not been correlated with our opponents' offensive rating. And again, there was only one metric it has been correlated with- our defense has been worse than expected against teams that are good at defensive rebounding. Maybe because we gave up transition points if we crashed the offensive boards and came up empty, or these teams are tough/athletic/long, or it's just small sample size noise? Our adjusted defense was not correlated with our opponents offensive rebounding, but that's more of a style/choice than defensive rebounding.
It's helpful for me to remember how much noise there is. It's easy to get sucked into a narrative after a tough loss that we have no chance against teams with certain strengths, but plenty of teams have duds every once in a while or go through a tough stretch. A few other teams had bad games today.
Our adjusted offense has not been correlated with our opponents' defensive rating. So we (on average) perform about how we should against good and bad defenses. The only metric it has been correlated with (of the ones on that page) is our opponents' defensive 3pt attempt rate- we did better than expected against teams whose opponents have attempted a lot of 3s. That makes sense, but I expected to find some other correlations, like performing worse against good defenses or "tough" teams (i.e. good at rebounding).
Likewise, our adjusted defense has not been correlated with our opponents' offensive rating. And again, there was only one metric it has been correlated with- our defense has been worse than expected against teams that are good at defensive rebounding. Maybe because we gave up transition points if we crashed the offensive boards and came up empty, or these teams are tough/athletic/long, or it's just small sample size noise? Our adjusted defense was not correlated with our opponents offensive rebounding, but that's more of a style/choice than defensive rebounding.
It's helpful for me to remember how much noise there is. It's easy to get sucked into a narrative after a tough loss that we have no chance against teams with certain strengths, but plenty of teams have duds every once in a while or go through a tough stretch. A few other teams had bad games today.
Im really not surprised at all. We’ve long had almost no home court advantage. This years it’s been even worse, but I highly doubt many teams fear playing at SFC like we do with Mackey or similar arenas.This stat from Werner gobsmacked me:
Since the 2020-2021 season: Illinois is 4-10 in quad 1A games at home...
Honestly, it’s something the athletic dept needs to investigate fixing.
I understand Purdue may be launching an investigation after 4 home losses this year.
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