Well there is no way I’d make a bracket with all 3 there. Arizona and Michigan have both played at least several games in the past month where they had looked very vulnerable. Upsets and surprisingly close games across the top 10 lately.
Week of 2/23 Bracketology
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I think the opposite here. I think that there are 4 teams that are clearly better than everyone else, then 2 teams that have a shot.
1)Michigan, Duke, Arizona and Florida
2)UCONN and Houston
There is a huge drop-off after those teams. That doesn't mean those teams are locks, but any of them losing before the Elite 8 would have required a shocking result. That's where UCONN and Houston come in. If Florida can't climb all of the way up to a #1 seed, they'll be the #2 to break it up.
I think the tournament will be much like last year. There is so much parity that the first two rounds will be a blast. There are going to be upsets and complete chaos. The chances of the perfect bracket will be done by Friday.
However, it's going to be chalk city in the Elite 8 and Final Four and without a Cinderella in the Final Four, the games will be wildly good.
The best chance we have of getting out of the 4 seed in the BTT is for MSU to lose to IU and Michigan. We would become the 3 seed in that instance as long as we win out. We could get the 2 seed if UCLA beats Nebraska this week. So there are outside chances of getting a better seed. Now we should lock up a 3 seed if we win out and get to the Semis of the BTT
So based on what Dan just posted, it looks like we have a 93% chance at getting the triple bye and not playing until Friday. Nebraska is at 91% chance. Sparty has 81% chance. Purdue has a 28% chance to get that.
This is where my head is at. We can absolutely beat them.
The Illini might be able to beat Duke, Michigan or "Zona in the Elite 8 game but we are not beating UCONN.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
For this looking to attend, this is a bit of a bummer update. The #2 and #3 seeds play Friday night, and I would imagine we’d get an exceptional crowd if we were in either spot. The #4 seed would play at like 1:00 pm on Friday, which would personally bum me out a ton as I couldn’t go.
Thus, I’m REALLY hoping MSU goes down to Indiana today.
ok? Yikes
A lot of volatility with those teams. Houston looked awful in a few recent games with big long spans of not being able to score. Arizona is great but lost to a KU team that has been vulnerable even in Allen. Michigan has had many games where they looked quite beatable. UCONN lost to a bad Creighton team at home and barely beat Seton Hall yesterday.
Not saying any of those teams aren’t good or not capable of winning it all but all have been up and down a lot. Any of them losing before the F4 wouldn’t surprise me.
I feel like I owe everyone an apology. I’ve been harping for months about how the first 4 teams must be placed into different regions. I’ve been going on what I read on the NCAA site. I hopped on it today and it looks like a new article of how to build the bracket was put out on 2/24. I believe they added an exemption on having 5 or more teams from your conference on the top 4 seed lines that the rules can be flexible so maybe we could get lucky and play in Chicago as a 2/3 seed. The downside is we’d most likely play Michigan in the E8. Anyways here’s what the new article worded the ruling as:
Also, here’s the link to the whole article explaining what the committee uses and what rules they follow to build the bracket:
www.ncaa.com
- The first four teams from any conference placed on the top four seed lines must be assigned to different regions (unless five or more teams appear on those seed lines).
Also, here’s the link to the whole article explaining what the committee uses and what rules they follow to build the bracket:
How the field of 68 DI men’s teams is picked for March Madness
The NCAA’s guide to how the 68 teams are chosen, seeded and bracketed for the Division I men's basketball tournament every season.
www.ncaa.com
We’re obviously rooting for OSU/Indiana today, correct?
Yes we are plus a UCLA win against Nebby this week.
I don't get the Purdue love at all. They haven't lived up to their preseason hype all season and have shown nothing to warrant a 2 seed in the past month or so. They won that game at Nebraska which they almost blew.
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We've lost 4 of 6. Let's win a couple of games this week before we throw stones. If the guy on ESPN is a clown by doing that, the vast majority of the bracketology industry is written by clowns.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
I think you could get various answers depending on the (practically) countless waterfall scenarios, but I am a firm "Yes" for these reasons, in order of importance for me.
1) Our ultimate goal right now is to hang on to St. Louis for a First Weekend location, and that likely requires being a #2 seed (rather than a #3 seed) due to the pecking order of teams. Not sure this is as relevant for MSU, but I think Purdue would pick St. Louis ... so we want them to be behind us in the S-Curve.
-- Interjection - Put me in the camp that thinks if the Illini team who beat Indiana shows up, we can beat anyone ... and if the Illini team that blew that second half lead vs. UCLA shows up, our opponent won't matter much. With that in mind, I am not particularly worried about our BTT matchups outside of avoiding Michigan until at least Saturday. So, my priorities for the BTT are a little more subjective and personal --
2) I want Illini fans to absolutely flood the UC for the BTT, and the odds of that happening increase materially if two things become true. (A) We are in Session 7, which is the 5:30 pm and 8:00 pm Quarterfinals games on Friday night, the gametimes for the #2 and #3 seeds, respectively. This would allow a lot more people to attend easily rather than hoping thousands of Illini fans take at least a half day to make the 1:30 pm game from Session 6 where the #4 seed would play. (B) I want as many teams who wouldn't bring a strong showing in our Session as possible so more Illini fans can get tickets at somewhat reasonable prices. While a lot of the teams in the top half of the league would travel pretty well this year, I am most worried about a #1 seed Michigan that's riding high and whose fans already know today exactly when their game would be (i.e., they have a head start on getting tickets) sharing a Session with somewhat dejected Illini fans. Give me the evening Session 7 with Nebraska!
3) Very much related to #2, I just selfishly really want to go to the BTT this year, and we can go if we play Friday night but we can't if it's during the day Friday. We could possibly go on Saturday if we make it, but we don't have child care secured ... I'd love to just be positive I can see the boys play at least one more time in my backyard!
Related to my Point #2, here is a reminder of the Friday Sessions. Another reminder that your ticket is good for BOTH games in that Session ... so we are sharing the ticket pool with whatever other team
Quarterfinals | Friday, March 13
Session 6
11:00 am = #1 Michigan and winner of #8 vs. #9/#16/#17
1:30 pm = #4 Seed and winner of #5 vs. #12/13
Session 7
5:30 pm = #2 Seed and winner of #7 vs. #10/#15/#18
8:00 pm = #3 Seed and winner of #6 vs. #11/#14
Right now per the odds posted today, these would be the odds of the triple bye teams in each Session.
Session 6
#1 Seed = 100% Michigan
#4 Seed = 54% Illinois, 17% Purdue, 12% Michigan State, 11% Nebraska, 5% Wisconsin
Session 7
#2 Seed = 63% Nebraska, 25% Michigan State, 10% Illinois, 1% Purdue
#3 Seed = 44% Michigan State, 29% Illinois, 17% Nebraska, 10% Purdue, 1% Wisconsin
HOWEVER, I believe those scenarios assumed (A) Purdue won at OSU today and (B) MSU won at Indiana today. Because when I leave every single thing the same in the BTT Seed Simulator except for OSU beating Purdue (currently up 11 with 8:34 to go) and Indiana beating MSU, I get these:
Session 6
#1 Seed = Michigan
#4 Seed = Michigan State
#5 Seed = Purdue
Session 7
#2 Seed = Nebraska
#3 Seed = Illinois
#6 Seed = Wisconsin
#7 Seed = Ohio State
That Session 7 is about the best we could ask for as far as getting the most Illini fans as possible (including me!) in the building and helping bring some extra energy for the boys to hopefully make a run.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Does anyone know how often this guy posts these tables?? I find them so awesome, but I do not have a Twitter and sometimes the site won't let me view posts. I would LOVE to know how these odds would change after today if OSU holds on vs. Purdue and Indiana can knock off the Spartans. I would have to figure that in such a scenario, Illinois' odds of being the #3 seed go up exponentially...
I would also think the odds of #2 go up also if MSU loses today because they still have to go to Michigan to end the season.
AyoDos11
- Southern Illinois
I also love these tables, and I probably spend too much time trying to find different seeding scenarios lol.
I think during the last week of the season he posts them every day for each conference once all the games are done.
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