Michigan 84, Illinois 70 Postgame

[Oracle21]

I have mild to moderate dyslexia and if you haven't noticed most of my posts are edited several times or more because they often times do not make perfect sense the 1st, 2nd or 3rd time and sometimes have various mistakes even though I've read it back to myself 100x

But yes, lets make up some wild story though....

Its no secret from past history that you just do not like me... we have basically no interaction other than every once in a while you berate me after a loss lol

There’s nothing wild about it. In fact it’s pretty simple to follow:

BashCt replied to Empowered that he lacked reading comprehension.

You, as Narrow, then made a comment that you were told you had no reading comprehension.

Why would you say that if you weren’t the same person? Certainly nobody in this thread has said NarrowJ has no reading comprehension. That comment was made to Empower directly. Yet you a few posts below it made direct reference to the comment as if it were directed at you.

 

[Illini2010-11]

houston was like a 5 point favorite in that game... yes they were somehow seeded lower

It is fair to state that Houston was slightly under seeded but not by much, and they were coming off of a Final 4 appearance. They were NET #3 going into the tourney, and were ranked around #18 in the polls. That Houston team was very hard to seed, and unfortunately got put into our region as the 5 seed. It should have been no surprise that we were underdogs in that game, especially with Frazier barely able to open his eye. Is that also the game where Melendez got one of the absolute worst technical fouls in a key spot? That will be one of the games where I will never hold against the Coach -- it was always going to be an uphill battle.

 

[EmeraldCityIllini]

Look ....I get it, completely.

But when we start doing favorites off betting lines over tournament seeding. Gets tricky. All I'm saying a one line difference 'upset' is a lot different than 8-1.

Also, which sportsbook do we go off to decide if it's an upset or not? And at what point in the betting line is that decided?

A 5-point spread is pretty decisive - I think Houston was top 10 Kenpom too…

We were so scarred by how bad the Loyola seeding was, we were blinded that Houston at 5 was probably even more ridiculous.

To be fair though, we got Kentucky last year as a 3 and I thought that was more than a fair draw. And I wasn’t overly impressed with either Texas or Xavier.

BYU being bumped from the highest rated 5 to a 6 because not playing on Sunday’s was also asinine. Thankfully that wasn’t a thing

 

[BrownTown]

betting lines never vary much from book to book, maybe 1 point or its like -110 on one book and -115 on another, so on and so forth

I get what you're saying but are we talking opening line or just before the game starts and lines have shifted due to betting?

Maybe I'm holding onto an old school line of thinking...but you could realistically have a 6-3 game where the betting lines favor the 6--like a team who had a tough start to the season and gets it going later on. Are we supposed to act like it's not an upset?

 

[BrownTown]

It is fair to state that Houston was slightly under seeded but not by much, and they were coming off of a Final 4 appearance. They were NET #3 going into the tourney, and were ranked around #18 in the polls. That Houston team was very hard to seed, and unfortunately got put into our region as the 5 seed. It should have been no surprise that we were underdogs in that game, especially with Frazier barely able to open his eye. Is that also the game where Melendez got one of the absolute worst technical fouls in a key spot? That will be one of the games where I will never hold against the Coach -- it was always going to be an uphill battle.

Iowa State could say the same thing about Illinois as a 3....TJs bs costing him 6 games and needing some in season ramp up certainly didn't help our chance at being a 2. Which IMO we could have been had that fiasco never happened.

 

[fatt lacosse]

I did indeed forget that we were a 4 seed against Houston. Data still points to "chalk" as the most likely outcome.

Underwood is 5-2 against lower seeds

1-3 against higher seeds

71% chance he beats a lower seed, 75% chance he loses to a higher seed.

We'll go as far as the chalk will take us for the most part. Loyola is the ugliest outlier imaginable, but it's an outlier

 

[EmeraldCityIllini]

You are missing the point. If things had gone as expected with Wagler not being a superstar, the team would have been rather mediocre. Because the money spent in other places has not worked.

You let Morez Johnson walk bc you wouldn’t exceed what Michigan was gonna pay, and you almost certsinly are paying more for Petro/Andres collectively than Morez got from Michigan. That’s just bad GM’ing in hindsight.

Finding Wagler wipes away lot of incompetence when it comes to what the roster build was. But looking back, the guys that left (Morez, DGL, White) were way better than the guys brought in to replace them (Z, Petro, Andres)

Brad isn’t perfect, but I think we all universally agree he pivots and adjusts quite well to tailoring around his personnel - just chalking it up to “they’d be mediocre without Wagler” seems a bridge too far.

We all were appalled when RayJ Dennis went to Baylor, and all Brad did was turn Marcus Domask first into a point guard, and subsequently into a first team Big Ten player and AA candidate. A lot because he had to adjust to TSJ being out

Also, I think we gotta stop with the Tre white was a choice thing. He’s on school 8 in 8 years. And while we’re at it, Morez is on school 3 in 3 years.

 

[Oracle21]

Also, I think we gotta stop with the Tre white was a choice thing. He’s on school 8 in 8 years.

Why?

Tre White clearly plays for the most money each year as evidence by his use of free agency.

Illinois certainly had a choice to pay him to come back, or use those funds for other players. They chose the latter. It was clearly a poor decision in hindsight.

 

[NarrowJ]

Brad isn’t perfect, but I think we all universally agree he pivots and adjusts quite well to tailoring around his personnel - just chalking it up to “they’d be mediocre without Wagler” seems a bridge too far.

We all were appalled when RayJ Dennis went to Baylor, and all Brad did was turn Marcus Domask first into a point guard, and subsequently into a first team Big Ten player and AA candidate. A lot because he had to adjust to TSJ being out

Also, I think we gotta stop with the Tre white was a choice thing. He’s on school 8 in 8 years. And while we’re at it, Morez is on school 3 in 3 years.

Right

If we want to do that whole whataboutism that Wagler doesn't turn into a draft pick then lets do a whataboutism that Andrej turned out amazing, Mihailo panned out as a starting B1G point guard and that Ty Rodgers did not get injured

Some of this stuff works out and some of it doesn't and then the less common stuff like every once in a while you get a Domask or Wagler type of surprise

Brad gets evaluated on results, not preseason projections

 

[EmeraldCityIllini]

Why?

Tre White clearly plays for the most money each year as evidence by his use of free agency.

Illinois certainly had a choice to pay him to come back, or use those funds for other players. They chose the latter. It was clearly a poor decision in hindsight.

I have no idea if it was all about money for Tre this time, or the previous 7 times lol.

But now you’re also building these things off one another and changing the financial variables and resources each time.

If we assume Morez and Tre decisions were only about money, and we decided to pony up more for Tre, than do we have enough to keep Boswell?

If we match Michigan for Morez (btw Morez has told us it was about play style) then we have enough to match Tre’s demands too?

 

[Indy Illini Fan]

I can just simplify things …

This team has the resources that every year we should be competing for Big Ten titles and in the 2nd weekend …

Every year …

 

[EmeraldCityIllini]

I can just simplify things …

This team has the resources that every year we should be competing for Big Ten titles and in the 2nd weekend …

Every year …

How many teams in the Big Ten fall into this bucket in your opinion?

TOTALLY agree Illinois is one of them

 

[Kernal12]

How many teams in the Big Ten fall into this bucket in your opinion?

TOTALLY agree Illinois is one of them

There are 20+ teams nationally, and probably 5+ in the B10, that fall into this bucket. So being ranked #11 (#5 NET) and likely 2-3 seed in NCAAT is top half of the "big spenders." We competed for the B10 title for much of the year but likely will finish tied for second. If we make the second weekend then this year is a success (more than that and it's a great success) in my book.

I would guess Michigan (for sure) and Purdue (probably) spent more than us this year. Indiana, Michigan State, UCLA, USC, Oregon, Washington probably in our ballpark on NIL spend.

 

[PepeSilvia]

It is very hard to claim Stojakovic has not been a disappointment. You can be good and still be disappointing, because we brought him and paid him to replace 2 NBA 1st round draft picks. Andrej has 0 chance of being drafted after this year. He was supposed to be the alpha. If Wagler hadn't been a diamond in the rough and able to handle the alpha role, I think this team would be a bit of a mess.

How much of Stojakovic underperforming is the fact that Wagler broke out and Stojakovic is playing off ball and not really the focal point of the offense so he has to adapt to a new role midseason? That's not really an easy thing to do unless you're Marcus Domask.

Honestly I think we're still a little rough on Stojakovic. He has been basically just as productive as Boswell has been and I think the lineup with Wagler, Stojakovic, Davis, Mirk, Ivisic looks better than when you see Wagler, Boswell, Davis, Mirk, Ivisic.

Its kind of a moot point though because it seems like he's found himself in Brad's doghouse now just like Tre White last year. At this point I think he transfers to a high profile school and has a much better season next year.

 

[Emerson Bigguns]

How many teams in the Big Ten fall into this bucket in your opinion?

TOTALLY agree Illinois is one of them

We are currently ranked #11, so it's pretty hard to argue we are failing to meet those types of expectations. 7 years in a row with at least 20 wins is elite. This program is in very good shape.

 

[Calvin]

The Monday morning quarterbacking is about as productive as telling us what lottery numbers we should play. Every team has hits and misses, and glue guys that no one appreciates that make the stars able to be the winners they turn out to be.

We have a very good roster that's won a lot of games.

 

[BalloonsTheElephant]

I say this in jest, but is Brad really lucky that TJ wasn't admitted to Michigan and that the most under-recruited player in forever played AAU ball for his ex-assistant?

If those two things which are uncontrollable and random, don't happen, I'm not sure what Brad's legacy is. I'm sure he would have figured it out, but it's something I've thought about more than a few times.

 

[Oracle21]

If we assume Morez and Tre decisions were only about money, and we decided to pony up more for Tre, than do we have enough to keep Boswell?

If we match Michigan for Morez (btw Morez has told us it was about play style) then we have enough to match Tre’s demands too?

I don’t see why we wouldn’t.

White/DGL/Morez collectively can’t be getting paid that much more than Petro/Andres/Big Z are.

That’s the trade right there.

I don’t think anyone is complaining about spending money on Boswell, Jake Davis, Humrichous, Wagler, Tomi, and Mirk.

The issue is swapping out Morez/White/DGL for Z/Andres/Petro.

 

[EmeraldCityIllini]

I don’t see why we wouldn’t.

White/DGL/Morez collectively can’t be getting paid that much more than Petro/Andres/Big Z are.

That’s the trade right there.

I don’t think anyone is complaining about spending money on Boswell, Jake Davis, Humrichous, Wagler, Tomi, and Mirk.

The issue is swapping out Morez/White/DGL for Z/Andres/Petro.

I’m not sure - I think it’s been said Boswell actually took a bit of a pay cut already to stay here.

DB is a great insider, and he has said a few times we had to prioritize either Tomi or Morez - so I’m not sure why you’d just assume we could have both, either due to cost allocation or role.

If Morez stays over Tomi, does that mean we get Mirk? Assuming the money would stay the same for Mirk, does that make Mirk comfortable enough with the role? I’m personally skeptical Mirk and Morez would work defensively together in the frontcourt, so we’d need a center.

I think there’s far more moving parts with a role and resource allocation than you’re giving credit to. Just my opinion though.

 

[NarrowJ]

I’m not sure - I think it’s been said Boswell actually took a bit of a pay cut already to stay here.

DB is a great insider, and he has said a few times we had to prioritize either Tomi or Morez - so I’m not sure why you’d just assume we could have both, either due to cost allocation or role.

If Morez stays over Tomi, does that mean we get Mirk? Assuming the money would stay the same for Mirk, does that make Mirk comfortable enough with the role? I’m personally skeptical Mirk and Morez would work defensively together in the frontcourt, so we’d need a center.

I think there’s far more moving parts with a role and resource allocation than you’re giving credit to. Just my opinion though.

Additionally, DGL is playing great but he’s an undersized scoring guard on a bad mid major… those types of players are typically role/bench players on a top 10 power conf team… and we know he left specifically because he didn’t want that role here.

Tre White 8 schools in 8 seasons kind of speaks for itself.

Morez signed not one, but two separate deals, with Illinois to come back.

 

[CleverHandle1]

It is very hard to claim Stojakovic has not been a disappointment. You can be good and still be disappointing, because we brought him and paid him to replace 2 NBA 1st round draft picks. Andrej has 0 chance of being drafted after this year. He was supposed to be the alpha. If Wagler hadn't been a diamond in the rough and able to handle the alpha role, I think this team would be a bit of a mess.

I say we get him healthy and in the right frame of mind for this run. Work on some things and put him in the best position to do well.

He also needs to look in the mirror and prove that he can do it.

If he proves worthy, sign him up for next year. If not, then four teams in four years will prevail.

 

[EmeraldCityIllini]

Additionally, DGL is playing great but he’s an undersized scoring guard on a bad mid major… those types of players are typically role/bench players on a top 10 power conf team… and we know he left specifically because he didn’t want that role here.

Tre White 8 schools in 8 seasons kind of speaks for itself.

Morez signed not one, but two separate deals, with Illinois to come back.

I’m rooting for Dre - always seemed like a good kid who genuinely worked hard.

But he’s not shooting 22 shots in games here. Not this team.

 

[IllinitripleJ]

houston was like a 5 point favorite in that game... yes they were somehow seeded lower

The NCAA totally screwed us in 2021 & 2021. Loyola had no business being a 8 seed in 2020-2021. They had a top 10 Kenpom rating. It was even worse in 2022. Powerful Houston was incredibly a 5 seed even though Kenpom had them as the 5th best team in the country. Houston had not yet joined the Big 12 but they were a top level Big 12-type of team in 2021-2022. I give Brad a pass for the 2022 loss but not so much in 2021. We should have beaten Loyola.

 

[chudaman]

I don’t disagree at all with this …

Wide open looks for both of them … Not going in …

And if that’s the case … What’s our answer on offense ??? We haven’t had one … Just keep chucking …

ZERO adjustments …

As Kylan is coming off of a broken hand I think it is important for him to get shots up to get it dialed in so he can do like he did at the end of last year and become a force during tourney time.

 

[Sheldon Ram]

What is good Andrej ?

He can’t shoot … He doesn’t rebound … He drives into double teams and turns it over … He doesn’t consistently defend …

What exactly does he do that warrants PT at this point ?

Man this is off base. Shooting 50% from the field. He’s our best ft shooter. Averaging close to 5 rebounds a game. Everybody is craping on him because of a bad Michigan game. 2 games ago had 22 points in 18 minutes. Brad was just quoted as saying he has had 2 phenomenal days of practice and we need him on the floor. I will take Brads opinion on this one