Aside from the fact that they both take long 3s, I can't think of a worse comp. Trae is a chucker and wildly inefficient. Keaton shoots much better from 3 (42% to 36% for Trae's 1 college season).
NBA Draft
Kenpom has some interesting takes on comps for Wagler (see rationale here: https://kenpom.com/blog/player-comps-that-dont-suck-as-much/)
I think Keaton will go to the draft - but if he's not a surefire lottery pick - if questions about athleticism or how strong his handles are under pressure come into the picture and he's more like mid to late teens, he could make a lot of money coming back and being a top 5 pick next year. The draft won't be as nearly top heavy and he would be a favorite for national player of the year next year
A guy could dream, but it's not out of the question I don't think as he gets NBA feedback
A guy could dream, but it's not out of the question I don't think as he gets NBA feedback
The KJ and Keaton back to back should be a huge selling point for Brad - come here as a freshman and be a first round pick - this offense creates stars, it just does
There's literally no reason to think there's a chance that he plays another game in Champaign.
And Riley
You're dreaming.
It's been awesome having him, and when he goes, he'll forever be an Illini. My one, rather selfish worry, is whether he can lead the team in the tournament. A guy like TSJ was ready for the moment, and could put the team on his back. KW is best when he plays within himself. Very different. It's great having as many weapons as we do, but you love having an Ayo or TSJ out there that lives for those moments.
Of course there is. I want him back. There is no better reason than that.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
I think it's fair to say that we're in a little bit of a similar situation as we were with KJ at about this time last year.
What KJ had put on tape earlier in the year put him at the tippy-top of the draft conversation among scouts, and mock drafts (which are ultimately just analysts regurgitating what scouts are telling them) continued to reflect that even as in the short term weaknesses were showing up in KJ's game.
Wagler has looked like a skinny 18 year old without premium explosiveness lately, since MSU. That's going to be raising questions about how he will translate at the next level.
But probably not enough to push his stock even close to out of the first round, and if he's sure to be a first rounder, it would be unlikely and unwise for him to stay, as it was with KJ.
Keep the focus on the here and now, IMO. This team has a big opportunity in front of itself.
I think Keaton will go in the lottery but outside the top 5 because the Illini tax is a real thing
This is not close.
On March 4th last year, KJ had 97 turnovers for the season. Wagler has 52.
KJ finished the year with an assist to turnover of 1.27. Wagler’s currently at 2.48.
The shooting also isn’t comparable — Wagler is 42% from 3. KJ’s shot had really fallen off after that hand injury (finished the year below 32%).
I think one thing that could be seen negatively by certain folks is that against the bad teams, Keaton really defers to others and doesn’t look for his own. This only looks great in the stat sheet if other guys make their shots, and yesterday, he should’ve had quite a few more assists.
Last night, @USC, home game against Northwestern are all examples of this.
Last night, @USC, home game against Northwestern are all examples of this.
I think at worst he’ll be top 10 unless he has a bad end to the season.
In our 4 postseason games, Kasparas had 24 turnovers and shot 5/22 from 3pt.
And KW can’t?
46pts — AT Mackey.
23pts in 2H — AT Nebraska.
Two top 5 opponents (at the time).
Also had 20 in 2H @Northwestern.
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He’s projected to go between 4 and seventh
Isn’t he projected to go top 5 this year?
#4 in brand new CBS mock:
www.cbssports.com
2026 NBA Mock Draft: Kansas' Darryn Peterson goes No. 1 ahead of BYU's AJ Dybantsa, Duke's Cameron Boozer
Peterson is the top pick in Gary Parrish's mock draft
www.cbssports.com
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He should definitely come back for another year#4 in brand new CBS mock:
2026 NBA Mock Draft: Kansas' Darryn Peterson goes No. 1 ahead of BYU's AJ Dybantsa, Duke's Cameron Boozer
Peterson is the top pick in Gary Parrish's mock draft
he probably will.... just like kj and will Riley did.. to root for the Illini in the stands with a bigger bank accountHe should definitely come back for another year
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
The weaknesses are different. KJ just tried to do way too much himself as the year went on last year, dribbled way too much, and that led to turnovers and bad shots. The injury is a fair point, that definitely impacted him.
Wagler is getting bullied a bit physically and not as able to impact games.
I think Wagler's struggles are probably more in the "just getting older and stronger will fix this" department, but don't be surprised if his draft stock becomes a bit divisive. Mock drafts are going to be a lagging indicator of this stuff.
Clearly, Keaton still needs to get stronger, but it has never been the run/jump stuff that attracted scouts to him. It's he shooting, ability to play at his own pace/change speed, be crafty, and make good decisions with the basketball. The biggest reason for the downturn in production is the amount of attention he is getting from defenses. They will leave anyone else before they leave him. He's had (maybe) one or two open 3's in the past month. Despite that, he still gets pretty impressive numbers.
Contrary to popular belief, you don't have to be an otherworldly athlete to be a great NBA player. Ask the leading scorer in the NBA. You need skill, confidence, basketball IQ, and a bag of tricks. Keaton has all that.
It took him about 4 games to adapt to the speed of NCAA ball. How many guys can you say that about?
Does the NBA want to make the same mistake nearly every D1 team in the country made? It will be interesting to find out.
Keaton scored 23 points against the top defense in the nation. He was on the wrong end of some physical play during the game (resulting in 4 turnovers), but strength and explosiveness can be gained in the weight room. Doubt teams are worried about him filling into his frame. The length (6-11 wingspan on 6-6 body) is something I rarely see mentioned here as well, and you can’t teach/develop that.
In the NBA the defense won't be able to leave everyone else to guard Wagler. Also they are spread, so the fouls are easier to see.
This convo comes up every single year - scouts care very little about young prospects not being physically developed at 18/19 years old.