Bracketology

[Thaillini22]

I take some solace in the likelihood that our R32 game will be against a team that isn't as strong as any of the teams we lost close games to this season.

I think this is rare terrain for Illinois: heading to the tournament with a team that won a load of games in a killer league and was a top-10 team at times, but heading into the tourney with low expectations. We could be the team that destroys everyone's brackets in the opposite way that we did in '21.

 

[the juiceman cometh]

If Purdue wins tomorrow I could see is being a 4 seed.

How would that be enough?

In addition to Purdue, we would also need Iowa St. (yes that's probably happening), Nebraska (who lost comfortably today), Gonzaga (who was well behind us even after winning their conference tourney), and one of Alabama, Kansas, Virginia, and Vanderbilt to pass us.

It's not happening.

 

[BoiseBaller]

I've thought for a while we'd end up on the 3 line.

I hope we draw a 7 seed we match up with well, but I'm not holding my breath.

 

[Second place is 1st loser]

If Purdue wins tomorrow I could see us being a 4 seed.

Honestly, I think Nebraska is probably more in line for that.

 

[Chase321]

I've thought for a while we'd end up on the 3 line.

I hope we draw a 7 seed we match up with well, but I'm not holding my breath.

A 3 plays a 6 seed in R2, right?

 

[Keisersose]

Honestly, I think Nebraska is probably more in line for that.

Probably right

 

[Illini2010-11]

We won't fall to a 4. We can both be in StL but in different regions.

It was a bad loss today but we will still be a 3.

It was a disappointing loss but not a "bad loss", since we are in Bracketology thread. Now Miami (OH)...definition of bad loss.

 

[NoRival]

It was a disappointing loss but not a "bad loss", since we are in Bracketology thread. Now Miami (OH)...definition of bad loss.

It was bad. We had a 15 point lead 2 times. You need to close that out.

Miami played a crap schedule.

 

[Illini2010-11]

It was bad. We had a 15 point lead 2 times. You need to close that out.

Miami played a crap schedule.

I agree. However, bad losses to the committee is based on quad system. We can call it bad, but it will not be a bad loss when it comes to seeding. Much more of a blown opportunity. Twice we have done that against Wisconsin this year.

 

[Fly Illini Fly!]

It was bad. We had a 15 point lead 2 times. You need to close that out.

Miami played a crap schedule.

By bracket terms a bad loss is a Q 3/4 loss. Wisconsin is 27th in the NET which makes it a Q1 with tons of room to spare.

 

[BalloonsTheElephant]

By bracket terms a bad loss is a Q 3/4 loss. Wisconsin is 27th in the NET which makes it a Q1 with tons of room to spare.

Losing a Q1 game against a very good team is not bad. Blowing two 15 point leads in the same game (and 3 in the last 3 halves) is bad.

 

[Fly Illini Fly!]

You are probably right. But I don’t think it’s 100%.

BAMA just suffered an abysmal loss to Ole Miss. It's 100% barring total brain-fart from the committee.

 

[illiniE]

Losing a Q1 game against a very good team is not bad. Blowing two 15 point leads in the same game (and 3 in the last 3 halves) is bad.

The blown leads is bad for fans. The committee will not even consider the 2 blown leads. To them it is an OT loss to a Q1 team.

 

[grue2]

Ah I gotcha.

Does the committee prioritize location or strength of teams when seeding? For example, let's say the committe picks Duke as the #1 overall team and obviously they get put in DC. But they also pick UConn as the strongest 2 seed. Do they put UConn in the East or do they move them somewhere else because theoretically Duke should get the weakest 2 seed?

The "rules" are pretty simple. Finding a good solution often takes a bit of work.

1) The top 4 teams from the same conference MUST be in different regions.
2) Try to minimize the chance of from the same conference meeting, especially top teams. e.g. Don't put a #2 seed and #3 seed from the same conference in the same region.
3) A higher seed (within top 4) should not play the equivalent of an away game. This is a bit wish-washy. It does say things like no IL in Chicago, and no Houston in Houston (Unless Houston somehow gets the #1 seed.)
4) Try to keep the top strength in the 4 regions about the same.
5) Try to zigzag the top 4 lines. Ideally the top #1 seed gets the weakest #2 seed, and strongest #3 seed, and weakest #4 seed. This gets mucked with as you try and meet the above goals.

The likely result is that one region will have a #4 seed from the BTT on one side of the bracket and a #3 seed on the other (possibly a #2 seed).

 

[Altuve27]

Alabama losing to Ole Miss was gigantic. Was concerned about Bama making a run.

 

[jrichisamazing]

It looks like there are still 3 potential bid thiefs out there (not counting the MAC).

SEC, A10, and Mountain West.

Am I missing anyone?

 

[Altuve27]

Kansas losing, I think, would just about lock up a 3 seed. Don’t want KU beating Houston and getting a shot for a win against Arizona.

 

[BfosterL]

It’s not dramatic. You have to take everything into consideration.

1 seed.. lose first weekend..

Skyy/Epps/Mayer year… lose first game

4 seed.. lose first weekend..

Last year.. lost first weekend…

Brad rode TSJ’s back to an elite 8…

How many first team all big ten guys have we had walk through the door? How many all Americans? How many freshman of the year? 6th man of the year? Most wins in the big ten over last 7 years?

And what do we have? 1 extended tournament run….. pathetic.

By taking everything into consideration I guess you do not count the regular season and the most Big Ten wins so far this decade (including 3 BT titles and should have been 4). We have not seen the results we all want in the tourney; however, this is the golden age of Illinois basketball. I'll take 6 mores years of the last 6 and roll the dice in the NCAA tourney. 90% of the fun of the basketball season is the season itself and the ride has been great .

 

[Oracle21]

MSU, Nebraska, Iowa State, Illinois all lost today. Committee is gonna have some tough decisions as to who gets the 2 seeds.

I don’t think it’s for sure Illinois drops off the 2 line. 50/50 I think given the MSU/Neb losses

 

[illiniguy24]

It’s not dramatic. You have to take everything into consideration.

1 seed.. lose first weekend..

Skyy/Epps/Mayer year… lose first game

4 seed.. lose first weekend..

Last year.. lost first weekend…

Brad rode TSJ’s back to an elite 8…

How many first team all big ten guys have we had walk through the door? How many all Americans? How many freshman of the year? 6th man of the year? Most wins in the big ten over last 7 years?

And what do we have? 1 extended tournament run….. pathetic.

I 100% agree with the NCAA results…. it’s not good enough. We’ve enjoyed some big ten championships though and that holds water.

But I think firing him right now is a mistake and unrealistic. If we lose first weekend this year and again next year…maybe the convo has legs

 

[Iloveorangekoolaid]

MSU, Nebraska, Purdue, Iowa State, Illinois all lost today. Committee is gonna have some tough decisions as to who gets the 2 seeds.

I don’t think it’s for sure Illinois drops off the 2 line. 50/50 I think given the MSU/Neb losses

Uh Purdue won

 

[Oracle21]

Uh Purdue won

Purdue was 13-7 in the Big 10. I don’t see them junping an Illinois team that went 15-5 and has the H2H. I don’t think they have a prayer of a #2

 

[Iloveorangekoolaid]

Purdue was 13-7 in the Big 10. I don’t see them junping an Illinois team that went 15-5 and has the H2H. I don’t think they have a prayer of a #2

You just said they lost today. I didn’t claim anything else to be true

Edit: you went back to edit your post instead of admitting to a mistake

 

[CV Illini]

Fears with another phantom call. That dude gets more non foul/foul calls than anyone in the B10

 

[RockyMtnIllini81]

Uh Purdue won

And MSU is still playing . . .