Pregame: Illinois vs Penn, Thursday, March 19th, 8:25pm CT, TNT

Status
Not open for further replies.
#302      
Yes. I mean I've watched very little of UNC this year and I haven't watched VCU at all. But according to Torvik, UNC has been the worse team since Wilson's injury. 5-4 and ranked #39 during that time vs VCU who is 9-1 and ranked #32.

It's all a bit premature anyway.
Yes, the way we've played, we need to focus on one game at a time. We are 4-5 in our last nine, after all.
 
#304      
What is the best guess for Saturdays Greenville game Session 3? I will likely make the 7 hrs drive, have never been to a NCAA tournament game.
If Duke plays game #1 on Saturday at 12:15pm, then we could start at ~2:50pm or 3:00pm. Believe that's the earliest it could possibly be.
 
#305      
Yes. I mean I've watched very little of UNC this year and I haven't watched VCU at all. But according to Torvik, UNC has been the worse team since Wilson's injury. 5-4 and ranked #39 during that time vs VCU who is 9-1 and ranked #32.

It's all a bit premature anyway.
In the spirit of being premature, it would be really cool if the administration could get at least a few players from the '04-'05 team to make guest appearances in the locker room to say some words if we play UNC in the 2nd round.

I know we've enacted symbolic vengeance from the '05 Championship loss a few times in the regular season, but this would be the first meeting between the two schools in 15 years, and the first time they've met in a "loser goes home" situation since the Championship loss.

For me, I still remember the heartbreak of that loss, so I would love to see our guys send the Tarheels packing while also knowing how much this matchup might mean historically to some fans.
 
#307      
Vcu would not be a good draw. Very quick guards
 
#309      
In the spirit of being premature, it would be really cool if the administration could get at least a few players from the '04-'05 team to make guest appearances in the locker room to say some words if we play UNC in the 2nd round.

I know we've enacted symbolic vengeance from the '05 Championship loss a few times in the regular season, but this would be the first meeting between the two schools in 15 years, and the first time they've met in a "loser goes home" situation since the Championship loss.

For me, I still remember the heartbreak of that loss, so I would love to see our guys send the Tarheels packing while also knowing how much this matchup might mean historically to some fans.
I just know somewhere Arizona fans are having similar fantasies about meeting us in the championship to exact their revenge 🤣
 
#310      
Yep, this team can get tighter than a pair of pantyhose on Kofi Cockburn.
I actually think we lose focus first, followed up by some tightness. We build a big lead and then we get a little lax in our offensive execution and/or start to lose our bite defensively. And then after said big lead is blown we tighten up. On some level it’s human nature. Playing basketball is physically hard and can see how you could unconsciously let up if the scoreboard told you you could give a little less than max effort. Sort of like going for a long run and then taking it easy for a mile when you know you’re ahead of your desired pace.

Certainly the players have to maintain focus, but I put most of it on Brad. I get wanting to save your timeouts for end of game situations but protect the **** lead. If you see the team losing focus (and it’s obvious to me even from my couch when we do), call a timeout and get them to refocus. Don’t let a 5-0 run spiral into a 12 point run. At least try.
 
#311      
Here's the thing about the 3-14 matchup:

in 40 NCAA tournaments, there have been 23 3-14 upsets. That itself gives you a 57.5% likelihood that a 3seed will lose in the first round of a given tournament.

In this particular field -- out of Illinois, Virginia, MSU, Gonzaga -- probably Virginia or Gonzaga is most likely to slip.
 
#312      
About the best possible path to a sweet 16 we could have asked for. Zero excuses.
When I looked at the bracket, I thought the exact same thing. I think U of I and Michigan both have GREAT draws. Should be an all B1G final.
 
#313      
Here's the thing about the 3-14 matchup:

in 40 NCAA tournaments, there have been 23 3-14 upsets. That itself gives you a 57.5% likelihood that a 3seed will lose in the first round of a given tournament.

In this particular field -- Illinois, Virginia, MSU, Gonzaga -- probably Virginia or Gonzaga is most likely to slip.
The spreads have never been higher for 14-3 matchups this year.
 
#315      
Here's the thing about the 3-14 matchup:

in 40 NCAA tournaments, there have been 23 3-14 upsets. That itself gives you a 57.5% likelihood that a 3seed will lose in the first round of a given tournament.

In this particular field -- Illinois, Virginia, MSU, Gonzaga -- probably Virginia or Gonzaga is most likely to slip.

My theory is NIL causes the talent to pool at power conf schools that have the money and we'll see less and less upsets in the tournament and you get chalky results like we've seen in recent years
 
#316      
Here's the thing about the 3-14 matchup:

in 40 NCAA tournaments, there have been 23 3-14 upsets. That itself gives you a 57.5% likelihood that a 3seed will lose in the first round of a given tournament.

In this particular field -- out of Illinois, Virginia, MSU, Gonzaga -- probably Virginia or Gonzaga is most likely to slip.
How does that math work?

40 tourneys x 4 3/14 matchups = 160 games. 23/160 is 14.3%
 
#317      
How does that math work?

40 tourneys x 4 3/14 matchups = 160 games. 23/160 is 14.3%
🤦‍♀️🤦‍♀️

23 upsets
in
40 tournaments

23/40 x 100 = 57.5% chance that at least one 3seed loses in a given tournament.

The way you did it, you need to multiply by 4 since there are 4 3seeds in a tournament:

23/160 x 4 = 0.575 convert to percent, 57.5%
 
#318      
My theory is NIL causes the talent to pool at power conf schools that have the money and we'll see less and less upsets in the tournament and you get chalky results like we've seen in recent years

And you see things like this also:

1773677320824.png


Illinois with the biggest spread in the 3/14s by 5 points (next highest is Gonzaga -19.5)
 
#321      
View attachment 48341
Be careful when buying tickets! NCAA official Ticketmaster website incorrectly lists Illinois as playing in Session 1.

We are session 2, just a little PSA.
Just purchased mine as well! I’m pumped.

Greenville is an awesome little town and the downtown is going to be incredible on Saturday with potential Illinois, UNC, Duke, and Ohio State fans in town.

IMG_4779.jpeg
 
#322      
Be a lot of talk about matchup this and matchups that. All we need to do is play up to our seed. Which has historically proven to be very difficult for us.
Brad just please get out of the first weekend. You have been most accounts statistically been given one of the best chances in the tournament to do so.
 
#325      
That definitely jibes with the "auto bids are weaker than usual this year due to conference upsets" and "this looks to be another top heavy tournament" analysis.
Expounding on this more. Here are the KP ratings of the 13-16 seeds:
13 (87, 106, 108, 113)
14 (140, 143, 145, 150)
15 (163, 181, 185, 187)
16 (191, 192, 207, 216, 284, 288)

This would be the 13-16 seeds had all the best teams won:
13 (87, 90, 92, 104)
14 (109, 111, 133, 140)
15 (142, 143, 153, 167)
16 (179, 185, 187, 207, 216, 243)

So, in effect, this year's 14 seeds are a typical year's 15 seeds.

EDIT: Put another way, here were the KP ratings of last year's 14 seeds:
89 Lipscomb
95 Troy
105 UNC Wilmington
114 Wofford (technically 163 Montana was the last 14 but they were overseeded, Wofford was a 15 seed)
 
Last edited:
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back