Pregame: Illinois vs Penn, Thursday, March 19th, 8:25pm CT, TNT

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#376      
Vinegarben
In the NCAA tourney we all should know that point spreads DON'T mean a damn thing. You go out and play as hard as you can every minute of every game. It is crap like the point spread that Illinois can look at and think we really don't have to play hard against these guys, if you think that stay home!
There is only 1 key to playing in the NCAA tourney. SCORE MORE POINTS THAN THE OTHER TEAM! If you can do that you will be the NATTY CHAMPIONS! IF YOU THINK YOU CAN COME HERE AND PLAY PART TIME YOU WILL SOON BE ON THE BUS HOME! WHICH ILLINOIS TEAM WILL SHOW UP-THE LAST 9 GAMES OR THE ONE THAT WON 12 IN A ROW!
 
#377      
JKR
Penn has more Illinois products on their squad than we do. Is there some Illinois connection on their staff?
 
#380      
Trueblue777
Instead of thinking about growing a handle bar mustache, Tomi better think about getting his !!! in gear. He has been underperforming and lathargic all season long. I want at least 7 rebounds out of him against Penn and get his !!! in the paint instead of jacking 3’s at a 20% clip
 
#381      
March2TheArch
Altuve27 said:
GREAT post. When we were playing at our peak our ball movement was excellent. Quick, decisive, hitting guys right in their shooting pocket, etc. We have really fallen off in that area.

Lack of ball movement and very careless passes. Wagler’s decision-making has been very poor during this recent stretch.
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Keaton’s near 50-bomb at Mackey may end up being the best and worst thing about this season. We got away from our offensive flow after that game.
 
#382      
BatteredWifeSchwartz
Fly Illini Fly! said:
🤦‍♀️🤦‍♀️

23 upsets
in
40 tournaments

23/40 x 100 = 57.5% chance that at least one 3seed loses in a given tournament.

The way you did it, you need to multiply by 4 since there are 4 3seeds in a tournament:

23/160 x 4 = 0.575 convert to percent, 57.5%
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I think your brain is on the right track but your logic is wrong.

Let’s apply what you’re doing to a 5-12 seed. 12 seeds have won 57 games in that same timespan. 57/40 x 100 = 142.5% chance of a 12 over a 5 in this tournament? That doesn’t make any sense.

Probability Math unfortunately does not work this clean or simple.
 
#383      
Second place is 1st loser
STLini25 said:
Yes, they already are gathering the information they need to prepare a scouting report for Houston. They have PLENTY of staff to do this. They aren’t starting to gather Houston information on Sunday flying back from Greenville. Houston’s scouting will done and ready for entire staff to review by the time Illinois wins on Saturday

I think college coaching staffs are more knowledgeable about how to advance scout than you are.
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Are they also sending scouts to check out Texas A & M and provide a full scouting report? How about St. Mary's? Why is it limited to Houston? Odds? That's silly.

I'm not saying they aren't knowledgeable. I'm not saying you aren't knowledgeable. I'm saying that no staff in the country would go down a two week path, when the amount of work that has to go into Penn, VCU AND UNC is overwhelming.

Do we scout the Final Four next week should we survive the first two games?
 
#384      
NarrowJ
Vinegarben said:
In the NCAA tourney we all should know that point spreads DON'T mean a damn thing. You go out and play as hard as you can every minute of every game. It is crap like the point spread that Illinois can look at and think we really don't have to play hard against these guys, if you think that stay home!
There is only 1 key to playing in the NCAA tourney. SCORE MORE POINTS THAN THE OTHER TEAM! If you can do that you will be the NATTY CHAMPIONS! IF YOU THINK YOU CAN COME HERE AND PLAY PART TIME YOU WILL SOON BE ON THE BUS HOME! WHICH ILLINOIS TEAM WILL SHOW UP-THE LAST 9 GAMES OR THE ONE THAT WON 12 IN A ROW!
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Imagine having this kind of reaction to something like a point spread

Like if I just walked outside right now and was like OMG FCK TREES stupid trees with their dumb leaves
 
#385      
DeonThomas
WizardBill said:
I am not nearly as sold as you are. In the Bracket Matrix, two had us as a 5.
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NarrowJ said:
And you see things like this also:

View attachment 48345

Illinois with the biggest spread in the 3/14s by 5 points (next highest is Gonzaga -19.5)
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The young lady who cuts my wife's hair at the salon down the street (who can't spell the word basketball) can submit a bracket to the Bracket Matrix. Ignore it.
 
#386      
Illini2010-11
Stats 999 for Sports has entered the thread, and I can't help but smile since I got my Master's in Econ from the beloved.
 
#387      
wc_illini
Vinegarben said:
In the NCAA tourney we all should know that point spreads DON'T mean a damn thing. You go out and play as hard as you can every minute of every game. It is crap like the point spread that Illinois can look at and think we really don't have to play hard against these guys, if you think that stay home!
There is only 1 key to playing in the NCAA tourney. SCORE MORE POINTS THAN THE OTHER TEAM! If you can do that you will be the NATTY CHAMPIONS! IF YOU THINK YOU CAN COME HERE AND PLAY PART TIME YOU WILL SOON BE ON THE BUS HOME! WHICH ILLINOIS TEAM WILL SHOW UP-THE LAST 9 GAMES OR THE ONE THAT WON 12 IN A ROW!
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Agree we shouldn't be complacent. But we've performed very well as heavy favorites in the NCAAT (and this year) under BU
 
#388      
illinibbcz
fuggles said:
When you watch Pitino coaching St Johns, he is standing on the sideline giving instruction to his team. Same with Hurley. OTOH Brad sits in his chair like he is watching cricket on the lawn sipping wine. idk.
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I got so sick of Weber yelling instructions constantly from the sidelines when he was here. Maybe it was just his squeaky voice!
 
#394      
lstewart53x3
fuggles said:
When you watch Pitino coaching St Johns, he is standing on the sideline giving instruction to his team. Same with Hurley. OTOH Brad sits in his chair like he is watching cricket on the lawn sipping wine. idk.
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Yet St John’s is a 5 seed and Brad has a 3 seed. Last year, St John’s lost as a 2 seed to a 10 seed in the second round. Which is worse than any NCAA defeat Brad has taken here.
 
#397      
Juju
So, I decided to have Grok simulate the entire tournament 1,000 times. I put it on Expert mode and it used KenPom, NetRtg, etc. It likes our chances!

We made the Elite 8 447 times out of 1,000. That was good for the 8th highest percentage out of all teams that made the Elite 8 in the simulation.

We made the Final Four 249 times out of 1,000. That was good for the 6th highest percentage out of all teams that made the Final Four in the simulation.

We advanced to the National Championship game 143 times out of 1,000. That was good for the 6th highest percentage out of all teams that made it to the National Championship game in the simulation.

And finally, we won the National Championship and cut down the nets 31 times out of 1,000. That was good for the 6th highest percentage out of all teams that won the National Championship.

I'll take it! Interestingly, what I think these results also show - at least in terms of the percentages and where we ranked in them - is that we're basically a 2 seed playing as a 3 seed in the simulation's eyes. Which is something we all pretty much know, but I thought it was interesting that the AI basically agrees. Hopefully, we're in one of the 31 universes where Illinois wins the title! GO ILLINI!!! 🟧🟦
 
#399      
mysterio2525
NarrowJ said:
Imagine having this kind of reaction to something like a point spread

Like if I just walked outside right now and was like OMG FCK TREES stupid trees with their dumb leaves
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I'll be in Vegas for the first round... point spreads do in fact matter. nothing like seeing the last few seconds of a game in the sportsbook. chaos
 
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