Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
I was in Sam's Town Sports Book the first time a 1 seed fell in the first round in 2018. It was pandemonium.
Pregame: Illinois vs Penn, Thursday, March 19th, 8:25pm CT, TNT
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That one was the committee's fault. There is no way St. John's should have been a 2 seed.
Interesting. I looked at the last ten Ivy teams in the tourney (they skipped 2021, no tourney in 2020).
They were underdogs in every game, but went 5-10
Against the spread, they went 9-6
On average, they were 3.5pts better than the spread, but were as high as 21.5pts over and as low as 22.5pts under
Their worst odds were +16.5pts (2022 Yale lost by 22 to 3-seed Purdue)
As 13-17pt dogs, they were 2-2
So they have indeed over-performed expectations, but they have never faced such long odds nor beat the spread by as much as we're currently favored. I am not guaranteeing anything of course.
I'm also not sure if there's any reason assume that Penn has anything to do with the performance of other Ivy schools from prior years. Yale, Princeton, and Harvard have all the wins and all the appearances except one by Penn (when they lost by 16 as 14.5pt dogs to 1-seed Kansas)
they don’t send scouts to games. It’s all done with video by the support staff. They have a specific scouting report for each opponent with the same specific information (personal, stats, advanced metrics, offensive sets, defensive sets, inbounds plays, precise video of offensive sets, defensive sets, rotations). This has already been compiled for Penn, UNC and VCU. This is not overwhelming for the staff. It is routine. The support staff loves doing it and fight for the privilege to do it. It’s great experience. It’s an honor. A coach like Kruger is overseeing all non Penn scouting reports.Yes, they will do a scouting report on the winner of St. Mary’s / TXAM after that game is completed.
It’s not overwhelming for professionals. It’s likely done with one or two staffers plus someone like Kruger. It’s what coaches do. They main coaches and all players don’t even know it’s happening.
They are not going down a two week path. In 6 days they will have a full team meeting going over their S16 opponent. Fully 100% prepared. Full scouting report. Full videos.
If you think Illinois is getting together Friday morning and saying let’s start on UNC or meeting next Sunday and saying let’s start on Houston you are not knowledgeable.
As far as my knowledge, I was recruited by Lou Henson to walk on at Illinois. I’m friends or acquaintances with half of the Illinois coaches in the last 40 years and half of the players from the late 80’s to 2000 and played with most of them. I have both sat through and done scouting reports.
I’m happy not to post when someone asks a question I have direct knowledge about if your knowledge and experience is better than mine.
Conversely, if Brads hiring good assistants who know how to run their respective side of the ball or positional group, I’d rather him focus on the big picture rather than individuals.
Their approximation is pretty close. Using the historical data of a 14.25% chance of any given 3-14 game being an upset, the odds that there is at least one 3-14 upset in a given year is: 1-[odds all 3 seeds win] = 1-[1-.1425]**4 = 56.1%
I agree that it looks that way, but:
From Tennessee through (and including) that Purdue game, our Adjusted Off was 133.6 (if I exclude the Purdue game, the highest stretch of games I can cherry-pick is 133.3 for the three just prior to Purdue)
After Purdue, it's been almost the same at 133.1
From Washington (next game after Purdue) through UCLA, it was 136.6
After UCLA, it's been 126.2
I really hope that Wagler hurt his shoulder/back at UCLA, and that it's recovered now.
As many others have stated, this is about as good of a path we could get for the S16. Either we lose to UNC or make the E8+. I really hope it's the latter 
I'm hoping tomi shows that clutch gene I've seen him exhibit and he comes strong in this tourney. I think that would more than make up for the uneven season
Big Jack
- Decatur
So close...
23 / 160 = 0.14375
1 - 0.14375 = 0.85625
0.85625^4 = 0.538
1 - 0.538 = 0.462 (46.2%)
I truly feel once he hits his first three in a game, he may be lethal.
TheFlyingIllini1317
- Chicago, IL
If he hits two in a row early vs Penn and we jump on them 15-5, look out.
The first 15 points are fun too
huh? Tomi has good post moves. We also have Hummer, meanwhile they have ONE tall guy
Sitting on the bench is old school. John Wooden rarely got off the bench, although he was constantly chirping at the officials. By tthe way Wooden hated to call timeouts. Coach K spent a great amount of time on the bench. There are others, which escape my memory. And in the pros you had the great Celtic coach Red Auerbach ( Bill Russell helped immemsely) who would light a cigar on the bench, when victory was guaranteed.
I still see a lot of it at the high school level.Wait! What’s ‘motion’ offense? I haven’t seen this in eons! /s
Math is right. However, the 3 seed has only won twice in 9 years. Prior to that, Brad Underwood was the head coach of the Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks when they defeated West Virginia 70-56 in the first round of the 2016 NCAA
Technology has really helped. I follow a high school of 400+ students and all their football, basketball, volleyball, etc. are live streamed with the exception of NFHS schools.
We literally have factual evidence of the exact same thing happening to Wagler when he decided to get a haircut. He’s been on milk cartons since he’s cut the locks…
If he has checked out, he needs to sit.
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