Pregame: Illinois vs VCU, Saturday, March 21st, 6:50pm CT, CBS
- Status
Getting 40 per cent of our misses means we're losing 60 percent of them. If it's early in the clock, taking an OK shot isn't a great choice IF we can get an even better one by moving the ball a bit more.
As time on the clock winds down, the opportunity for getting an even better look decreases, so the OK shot becomes a better choice.
To me it feels even worse than 3-27.
Imho, Mirk is wonderful, but Giorgi is the goat.
Ready for Gametime!
Would like to see us work inside out to get more open threes much like we did coming out from halftime against Penn. It seems to give Jake, KW, and BH more space and time to get good threes off in good form instead of rushing when we just throw the ball around the perimeter.
Athletic team with good size, they give 8 guys good minutes and we'll see all of them regularly. They don't typically overload their starters with minutes like some teams. This makes them a very good team defensively They all aren't afraid to shoot the three ball. They only have one true post player in their rotation (Djokovic), if they can get him into some foul trouble that would be great. Overall a well-balanced team, not too reliant on three, or twos, or their defense to win games. Very good overall. This is a team that could definitely play in the Big Ten. Same seed line as Duquesne also from the A-10 two years ago, but a much stronger team (that squad was all defense, little offense and finished 6th in the A10 regular season... this team is about even in terms of their offensive and defensive rankings and finished tied with a very good St. Louis team who is also playing today for A10 regular season crown).
Containing dribble will be important. Guards like Hill have been the ones to give us trouble all season. He does not start the game but plays a starter share of minutes. Jardrian Tracy is the guy who starts but is used more like a sixth man, this guy loves to shoot threes whenever he touches the ball, so Illinois can't be too lax with him there but you can also kind of bait him into taking bad shots. Jennings is a terrific defensive player, he will likely be tasked with Wagler. I don't think they have a "true point guard" (Hill leads team in Assists but is really a guy who looks to attack and occasionally that opens things up), Nyk Lewis will likely be that guy in the future but not quite there now. On paper, Illinois has a good rebounding edge (Djokovic isn't a very prolific rebounder and they actually rely a lot on their guards here).
Djokovic and Hill were first team All Atlantic 10. Nyk Lewis and Hill were all Conference Tournament team. Hill was also Conference 6 man of the year, Most Improved Player and Tournament MVP, Lewis was A10 Rookie of the Year, Jennings was A10 All-Defensive Team.
Containing dribble will be important. Guards like Hill have been the ones to give us trouble all season. He does not start the game but plays a starter share of minutes. Jardrian Tracy is the guy who starts but is used more like a sixth man, this guy loves to shoot threes whenever he touches the ball, so Illinois can't be too lax with him there but you can also kind of bait him into taking bad shots. Jennings is a terrific defensive player, he will likely be tasked with Wagler. I don't think they have a "true point guard" (Hill leads team in Assists but is really a guy who looks to attack and occasionally that opens things up), Nyk Lewis will likely be that guy in the future but not quite there now. On paper, Illinois has a good rebounding edge (Djokovic isn't a very prolific rebounder and they actually rely a lot on their guards here).
Djokovic and Hill were first team All Atlantic 10. Nyk Lewis and Hill were all Conference Tournament team. Hill was also Conference 6 man of the year, Most Improved Player and Tournament MVP, Lewis was A10 Rookie of the Year, Jennings was A10 All-Defensive Team.
Last edited:
I don't think anyone is saying we should heave up contested 3s early in a possession before our rebounders are in position, or even that Tomi and Z should be chucking very many regardless.
But if one of our good shooters is open, that's a very high value shot. Even an occasional long range one from Wagler is good to make the defense honor that and open up some other easy option.
I get the argument about collapsing the defense to create an open look, but if you already have an open look, there's no reason to risk an errant dribble or pass or that you just don't get a good look.
Edit: a 30% 3pt shot with a 40% ORB is 1.25ppp. At 32%, it's 1.33
Last edited:
A big part of Djokovic's offensive game is getting to the free throw line, where he is a very good foul shooter. That's been a nice strength of Illinois defense for the most part (not fouling too much). This is where Big Z can give some good minutes. When Djokovic sits, they use Michael Belle as an athletic small ball 5.
As a follow up: we obviously don't run a Nate Oats offense, but he's had elite results after concluding that the first 6 seconds of the shot clock are when you'll get your best looks. Defenses get better, not worse, as they get settled and the shot clock continues.
Places that are ten minute walk from arena
Bars: Neat Bourbon Bar, City Tavern, Ink n Ivy
Restaurants : Sassafras, Draper, Cantina 76
Some "experts" believe the Illini can have a field day inside the paint today.
I quoted "experts" because I am not sure how much "expertise" they have, but the point is well-taken.
I quoted "experts" because I am not sure how much "expertise" they have, but the point is well-taken.
I'd defer to the people more dialed in but I read where he is projected as a late 1st, early 2nd round pick in the 2027 NBA draft.
Not that I have seen. He could be all B10 next year.
Superficial look at the matchup using NCAA stats shows teams about even in most categories other than these two:
VCU averages 12 fast-break points a game to 6 for the Illini.
The Illini superpower remains rebounding, with a plus-10 margin compared to plus-2 for VCU. Interestingly though, VCU averages 11 offensive rebounds a game to 13 for the Illini.
Other tidbits:
They shoot the three better (36.85% to 35%), but we defend the three better (opponents hitting 31.3% vs. 32.9% against VCU). They take 25 a game, we take 31.
They get to the FT line 25 times a game vs. 20 for the Illini...but the Illini hit 78.78% to their 73.83%. And only South Alabama fouled fewer times than the Illini.
They average 81.6 points and give up 71.7. We average 85 and give up 69.8. If you take the midpoint of the offensive and defensive points, the score ends up Illini 78, VCU 75.
Should be a great game.
VCU averages 12 fast-break points a game to 6 for the Illini.
The Illini superpower remains rebounding, with a plus-10 margin compared to plus-2 for VCU. Interestingly though, VCU averages 11 offensive rebounds a game to 13 for the Illini.
Other tidbits:
They shoot the three better (36.85% to 35%), but we defend the three better (opponents hitting 31.3% vs. 32.9% against VCU). They take 25 a game, we take 31.
They get to the FT line 25 times a game vs. 20 for the Illini...but the Illini hit 78.78% to their 73.83%. And only South Alabama fouled fewer times than the Illini.
They average 81.6 points and give up 71.7. We average 85 and give up 69.8. If you take the midpoint of the offensive and defensive points, the score ends up Illini 78, VCU 75.
Should be a great game.
random and fun (maybe not so fun) fact: duke is playing against TCU right before our game against VCU in the same session. Hope only one “CU” prevails and it’s not ours
Kofi holds the Illinois freshman rebound record in a season with 272.
Mirk currently at 265 (yes, Kofi did play a few less games due to COVID).
Mirk currently at 265 (yes, Kofi did play a few less games due to COVID).
I'm even more lost - Offense is about points/possession.
Illinois leads the nation in points per possession and the key factor to having the highest points / possession relates to rebounding the missed 3pt.
A rebound creates a second opportunity to score on the same possession.
We shoot 32 pt shots a game. We make 11 and we rebound and get over 8.5 rebounds on the miss. That is an astronomical number and leads to the highest points per 100 possessions in the history of NCAA men's basketball.
So I am going to (respectfully) ask the same question. Why in the world would we change the offense we run?
One other question (and this is for the board, not exactly for you):
What is the obsession with the Andrej's 3pt shooting? Since he returned from his ankle sprain - he is 3 / 12 from three point range in 7 games. The 3 pt numbers are insignificant and have little impact on our ppm.
Similarly, Z has taken 21 three pt shots in the last 9 games... that isn't having any impact on our offensive production. I am just curious, what all the commentary is about? There isn't any relevance.
Keep in mind with focusing only on counting stats that those aren't opponent-adjusted. Illinois has compiled it's counting statistics over a 20 game B1G slate + extremely hard non-conference schedule while VCU has played 3 ranked teams all season (sidenote they're 0-3 in those games losing by an average of 11.3 points)
If he keeps this up in the tournament he's like Luka 2.0.
Brad's version of moneyball, and it's working. It's a very analytical approach. Impossible to argue with the stats that we need to change our offense.
I think it's on the defensive end where our weaknesses show. Our guys avoid fouling very well but I think that also creates a lot of open drives to the basket for the opponents. UCLA exploited this particularly well.
Or as the great Woody Harrelson said in the classic movie Zombieland, "It's time to nut up or shut up"
- Status