NCAA Tournament Bracket

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#276      
Oracle21
With no #13-16 seeds winning in Round 1, and Texas is going to be the only double digit seed to make the Sweet 16, I wonder if this will be the year of someone having a perfect bracket nationally.

Warren Buffet once offered $1 billion to someone that had a perfect one
 
#277      
grue2
Oracle21 said:
With no #13-16 seeds winning in Round 1, and Texas is going to be the only double digit seed to make the Sweet 16, I wonder if this will be the year of someone having a perfect bracket nationally.

Warren Buffet once offered $1 billion to someone that had a perfect one
Click to expand...

There are no perfect brackets left in the CBS pool.
 
#279      
wc_illini
Fly Illini Fly! said:
FYI, formula for ppp:

(FGA - OREB) + TO + (0.475 * FTA)
Click to expand...
That's an approximation if you don't have play-by-play data, although even with play by play data, different sources may vary by 1 or 2. For example, Torvik says the game against VCU was 66 possessions (doesn't separate that out by team), but (58 - 12) + 12 + (0.475 * 17) = 65.075. I saw another site somewhere that said 65 possessions for us, and 64 for VCU

Excl the VCU game, Torvik had us at 2217 possessions and 2805 points (126.5ppp), but (2058 - 442) + 287 + (0.475 * 674) = 2223.15

After the VCU game, Torvik has us at 2283 possessions and 2881 points (126.2ppp)
 
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#280      
Fly Illini Fly!
Fly Illini Fly! said:
FYI, formula for ppp:

(FGA - OREB) + TO + (0.475 * FTA)
Click to expand...
wc_illini said:
That's an approximation if you don't have play-by-play data, although even with play by play data, different sources may vary by 1 or 2. For example, Torvik says the game against VCU was 66 possessions (doesn't separate that out by team), but (58 - 12) + 12 + (0.475 * 17) = 65.075. I saw another site somewhere that said 65 possessions for us, and 64 for VCU

Excl the VCU game, Torvik had us at 2217 possessions and 2805 points (126.5ppp), but (2058 - 442) + 287 + (0.475 * 674) = 2223.15

After the VCU game, Torvik has us at 2283 possessions and 2881 points (126.2ppp)
Click to expand...
Not sure about Torvik, but I do it's the formula kenpom uses:


"Since we need to know things in terms of possessions and possessions is not an official NCAA statistic, it must be estimated. The formula I am using is:

Possessions = FGA-OR+TO+.475*FTA"

Regardless of how one views possessions.... if you apply an exact mathematical formula for every team, the end result should be pretty consistent.
 
#281      
NarrowJ
I also think I have seen some publications/sources use a different multiplier (0.44 rather than 0.475 for example).
 
#283      
wc_illini
Fly Illini Fly! said:
Not sure about Torvik, but I do it's the formula kenpom uses:


"Since we need to know things in terms of possessions and possessions is not an official NCAA statistic, it must be estimated. The formula I am using is:

Possessions = FGA-OR+TO+.475*FTA"

Regardless of how one views possessions.... if you apply an exact mathematical formula for every team, the end result should be pretty consistent.
Click to expand...
Good to know about KenPom, though he calculates it for the opponent and averages the two, which might help get closer to the "true" number

I wonder how much it varies by team and over time. The NBA uses a different number because there are more FTs per possession. They finish through contact better and get more and ones, attempt more 3s (so get more 3FT possessions), and more technical fouls. The first two could definitely depend on the scheme and players (I guess the last one would too since opponents' possessions get averaged with the team also)
 
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