Pregame: Illinois vs Houston, Thursday, March 26th, 9:05pm CT, TBS

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#276      
The Galloping Ghost
Thaillini22 said:
Nebraska's a really good team.
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It's good teams all the way down. Nobody here believes any of these are gimmies. But I'll certainly take a path of teams we know inside and out and, oh yeah, have already beaten. Luck is a decent-sized factor in the tourney. Goodness knows, we've had our share of bad luck in March over the years. When good luck finally comes your way, you'd better be thankful and then make the most of it.
 
#281      
Chase321
Biggest game of Brad’s career. Biggest Illinois game since 2005.

Get out of Houston, and you’ve got a wide open path to the final 4.
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Wide open? As Illini fans we should know the danger of playing a conference foe we already beat in conference play in the tournament.
 
#282      
Chase321
It's good teams all the way down. Nobody here believes any of these are gimmies. But I'll certainly take a path of teams we know inside and out and, oh yeah, have already beaten. Luck is a decent-sized factor in the tourney. Goodness knows, we've had our share of bad luck in March over the years. When good luck finally comes your way, you'd better be thankful and then make the most of it.
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Sure. But that’s different than saying the path is wide open.

The scars of 1989 are still there for many of us.
 
#283      
wc_illini
bdutts said:
No, it's not a home game for Houston since it's not being played in the Fertitta Center, but if you think there would be the same number of Houston fans at the Toyota Center as there would be if the game were being played in Charlotte, NC, you'd be wrong. Houston will definitely have a crowd advantage. Having said that, it shouldn't be any tougher to play there than it would be to play an away game in East Lansing or at the Mackey Center, other than the stakes. They have the blueprint to win in a hostile environment.
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I didn't say anything about crowd numbers. I agree they will likely have more than us, but certainly less than they would in true home game.

My point is that the line is 2.5. Houston is ahead of us in the metrics/etc, so they would almost certainly be favored at a neutral site (Torvik says 1.3). So bettors are giving them 1 (maybe 2) points for home court advantage. That's quite a bit less than the typical 3.5+
 
#284      
IlliniGrad93
I think we will have a huge fan advantage now with Iowa and Nebby being the other game. I fully expect both fanbases to cheer for us over Houston.
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That is such a good point!
 
#287      
Illini in Indiana
LvilleILL1 said:
Biggest Illinois basketball game in 20 years. Not going to be easy at all, need our A game.
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I agree and I've watched 50+ years. Definitely top 10 in the past 50 years, maybe top 5.

Anyway, we are a 2.5 dog in 1 game and likely a solid favorite in the other 3 to get to the final four.
I'm gonna call Thursday a coin flip game, because the B10is looking solid.
I'll guess and say we have a 40% chance to get to a final 4 - I like our chances

Pour One Out Malt Liquor GIF
 
#288      
RML
I think we will have a huge fan advantage now with Iowa and Nebby being the other game. I fully expect both fanbases to cheer for us over Houston.
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I guess. But apparently many of us on here root AGAINST other B1G teams. So are we sure that Nebby and Iowa fans won't do that?
 
#291      
wc_illini
Illini in Indiana said:
I agree and I've watched 50+ years. Definitely top 10 in the past 50 years, maybe top 5.

Anyway, we are a 2.5 dog in 1 game and likely a solid favorite in the other 3 to get to the final four.
I'm gonna call Thursday a coin flip game, because the B10is looking solid.
I'll guess and say we have a 40% chance to get to a final 4 - I like our chances

Pour One Out Malt Liquor GIF
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With Florida's loss, our odds to reach the FF on Kalshi jumped from 24/25% to 31% (our odds to beat Houston are ~42%, so we'd have a 74% to reach the FF if we beat Houston (but those odds would of course change depending on who wins between Iowa and Neb)
 
#292      
PepeSilvia
Stojakovic has to start this game. You cant get cute and go with Davis and dig yourself a hole.

Davis was getting shredded by Penn on defense. Are you really going to ask him to guard Flemings, Sharp, or Uzan? Or to bang with Tugler?

You probably have to go with mainly a 7 man rotation of Wagler, Boswell, Stojakovic, Mirkovic, Tomi, Z, and Humrichous. You can really only afford to play Davis if Miller or McCarty or in but even then you need to be careful switching and not end up with Davis on Flemings or Sharp.
 
#294      
Nohops 73
21ChampaignSt said:
Obviously Houston is really really good. And playing in their home city isn't ideal. But this isn't some David vs Goliath matchup.

Since Feb 1, Torvik has us as the better team. Interestingly, we have the #2 offense and the #23 defense during that time and Houston has the #2 defense and #23 offense.

Their best win is Arkansas on a neutral floor. They're 0-3 against the top 10 in NET.

Plus, they're susceptible to getting caught in rotation and giving up open shots. If we just stay composed and find the open man, I really like our chances.
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Houston has not beaten a team as good as Illinois all year. Their best wins are against Kansas, Arkansas and Texas Tech. While they are clearly a very good team, Illinois should not be intimidated. Play their game and see what happens.
 
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