The Sweet 16

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#28      
Ideal would be beating a big 10 team in the elite 8, final 4, and championship game.

I want a B1G team to win if we don't, but I also agree with you. But not Michigan, or Mich State.
Or Iowa.

It needs to be us!!!!
I’m as tired of Izzo’s Tactics as much as anybody…and I hate Fears; but I could probably live with Michigan State.

I could probably live with most anyone but Michigan. Which has a very good chance of happening; sadly.

AND not Iowa. For very different reasons.
We can’t have our dorky sniping step brother landing the prettiest girl in the school can we? I AM stoked they beat Golden & Florida…but they need to lose pretty soon.

At the same time…I’m torn because 25 years is far too long not to have a B1G natty champ.
 
#33      
That’s even weirder:


Foul up 2? And Stirtz who’s 84% ?
Apparently Golden has a whole thing about fouling up 2. That's customary in Europe, fwiw. Don't risk a 3, don't risk an and-1, maybe they miss a FT, but worst case scenario you've got the ball and last shot, which if you trust your offense more than your defense is a net plus.

That getting in position to foul leaves you vulnerable to that sort of play leading to a 3 is an interesting wrinkle in those probabilities.
 
#35      
Apparently Golden has a whole thing about fouling up 2. That's customary in Europe, fwiw. Don't risk a 3, don't risk an and-1, maybe they miss a FT, but worst case scenario you've got the ball and last shot, which if you trust your offense more than your defense is a net plus.

That getting in position to foul leaves you vulnerable to that sort of play leading to a 3 is an interesting wrinkle in those probabilities.
is this the college basketball version of letting the other football team score to have the ball last? seems really risky would love to see how they come to that decision
 
#37      
is this the college basketball version of letting the other football team score to have the ball last? seems really risky would love to see how they come to that decision
I mean it kinda depends on general offensive efficiency and a bit on the actual time on the clock, right?

Under, say, 5 seconds, you aren't leaving yourself enough time.

(Also, can you advance the ball with a timeout in Europe? That matters too)

But in a world where the offensive efficiency level is high, and you're selling out to make sure no one shoots a 3, the chances you're giving up 2 points via some means is pretty high, and there's still that 3 point play risk.

Fouling (assuming you actually foul successfully) essentially eliminates any risk of losing in regulation, and gives you the ball with a chance to win it.

In the 2005 Big Ten where nobody could make a shot, those probabilities don't add up, just play defense. But in the much more efficient modern game?
 
#41      
is this the college basketball version of letting the other football team score to have the ball last? seems really risky would love to see how they come to that decision
Kind of. I'd say it's really more about minimizing risk. The thinking is that at worst, the game will go to overtime and theoretically, the longer a game goes on, the more likely it is that the superior team will win. (That logic hasn't played out in our favor this year.)
 
#42      
Kind of. I'd say it's really more about minimizing risk. The thinking is that at worst, the game will go to overtime and theoretically, the longer a game goes on, the more likely it is that the superior team will win. (That logic hasn't played out in our favor this year.)
Yeah, Golden's argument would be that it's more like kicking an extra point with zeroes on the clock to go to overtime rather than risking a 2 point conversion to try and win it right there.

(Which the Bears should have done against the Rams, but I digress)
 
#45      
Apparently Golden has a whole thing about fouling up 2. That's customary in Europe, fwiw. Don't risk a 3, don't risk an and-1, maybe they miss a FT, but worst case scenario you've got the ball and last shot, which if you trust your offense more than your defense is a net plus.

That getting in position to foul leaves you vulnerable to that sort of play leading to a 3 is an interesting wrinkle in those probabilities.
Indeed: https://kenpom.com/blog/the-guide-to-fouling-when-leading-or-tied/

"others have wondered if there are some advantages to fouling when leading by one or two late in the game
...
for the most part, anyone entertaining the viability of these approaches must do so in a theoretical way. That is, until last season when San Francisco’s coaching staff, led by head coach Todd Golden..."

Interestingly, KenPom's analysis says they shouldn't have fouled given they were favored to begin with (so overtime would be in their favor). He doesn't consider offensive efficiency (just pre-game win probability), and offenses have become more efficient since his analysis, but the curves would have to shift a lot to say they should foul Stirtz.
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#46      
Wow, Florida was trying to foul up 2?

I can't believe they allowed a three... give Stirtz a free layup and go to overtime.
 
#47      
Didn't look like a punch to me? Was wrapping his right arm around the top of the ball to rip it away... if it was a punch, he missed by about a foot and a half

That felt gross coming to the defense of an Iowa player though, so... it was a punch :D
It looked like a punch to me at first, just not to the face- maybe trying to hit the ball?

After watching a few more times, I have no idea what he was doing. His hand wasn't clenched for a punch nor open like he was trying to grab the ball. Maybe he started to punch, then thought better of it and went for the ball. Looked very awkward either way
 
#48      
It looked like a punch to me at first, just not to the face- maybe trying to hit the ball?

After watching a few more times, I have no idea what he was doing. His hand wasn't clenched for a punch nor open like he was trying to grab the ball. Maybe he started to punch, then thought better of it and went for the ball. Looked very awkward either way
Odd looking but I am guessing he was trying to pop the ball loose.
 
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