Pregame: Illinois vs Houston, Thursday, March 26th, 9:05pm CT, TBS

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#602      
altgeld88
skyIdub said:
Bwahahahahaha I just had my first fan interaction in downtown San Antonio…weird since I live in HTown now.

Forgot I had my Illini hat on and old dude came up and said “how do you feel about Sunday night?”
What?
Then he motioned to the hat and I said ohhhhh Thursday!! lol. Oh yeah he said.
He’s a “Coogs” fan.
Amicable chit chat…..then he busts out with high praise for Samscum.
I politely said never been a big fan of Calvin honestly. 😂

Conversation turned in an instant! He was so confused! I was very complimentary of Houston, then dismissed the coach with a smile.
He had no idea how to respond! The looks on he and his wife’s faces!!! 🤣🤣🤣
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Ah, the young people just don't know their history these days... ;) Bet they'll be puzzled and off kilter the rest of the day. God help them if they consult the Interwebs.

As I noted yesterday, I admire his work and what he has done at Houston. I'm thankful he left Indiana. He would have been a great dela of trouble for us there over many, many seasons.
 
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#603      
Mobi
the juiceman cometh said:
There's a lot of talk on here about how Illinois has fared against teams like MSU and Michigan, but not much on Houston's own track record. And here's the deal: Houston has struggled just as much as us with that top tier of opponents. They are 5-6 in Q1A (we are 5-7). The toughest opponent they've beaten is Arkansas (#17 KP, #15 NET).

Looking for a similar efficiency profile to ours in the Big 12, the most similar I found was Texas Tech. High ranked offense, lower ranked defense (worse than us in both however). Houston went 1-1 against Tech, and both games were close, (yes, even the one in Houston).

In fact when you look at their Q1 games, a lot of close games, not many blowouts.

Looking at Houston's resume, I don't understand the Michigan 2.0 talk. Where have they shown they can do that to a top-10 team? They simply haven't. We aren't Baylor and we aren't Texas A&M. They may ultimately beat us, but I'd be surprised if we weren't in it to the end.
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I don't think they are as good as Michigan but they are probably better than MSU. Still a very hard game.
 
#605      
Roundball Sage
CleverHandle1 said:
I am beginning to think they can win this damn game.
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Here’s one key: Wagler has got to play within himself.

Defenses have figured out they need to take him out of the game. Several of the recent games they have keyed on Wagler early and he had long slow stretches. He would get it going in the second half when the defense began to tire and sag off him a bit.

He cannot force himself or his shot when he’s the focus of the opposition attention. He’ll get his chances at some point but he cannot drive into traffic when there’s no room or do force-up shots when the pressure is too intense. You have nothing to prove young man. You are an extreme talent. Just let the game come to you and then have your way with it.

The Illini have plenty of fire power to cover things until Wagler can start to maneuver.
 
#606      
illini0440
Roundball Sage said:
Here’s one key: Wagler has got to play within himself.

Defenses have figured out they need to take him out of the game. Several of the recent games they have keyed on Wagler early and he had long slow stretches. He would get it going in the second half when the defense began to tire and sag off him a bit.

He cannot force himself or his shot when he’s the focus of the opposition attention. He’ll get his chances at some point but he cannot drive into traffic when there’s no room or do force-up shots when the pressure is too intense. You have nothing to prove young man. You are an extreme talent. Just let the game come to you and then have your way with it.

The Illini have plenty of fire power to cover things until Wagler can start to maneuver.
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He has been that for 2/3 of the season and he is averaging about 1/3 of our teams assists/game....
 
#608      
altgeld88
#615      
RockfordIllini
Just another data point. Per Torvik Houston is 13th in the country in defensive TO% at 20.7%. Our offensive turnover percentage is 13.0 which is top 10 in the country.

The 2 closest teams we’ve played are iowa (#15 20.5%) and Nebraska 2X (40th at 19.2%). The ole AI gave an estimated turnover percentage for us of 17.5 vs Iowa, and 15.9 and 12.4 vs Nebraska.

So generally our TO% does tick up against these sorts of teams compared to our average, but we still turn it over at a lower percentage than average. Hopefully that trend continues. If we can keep our percentage at 15% or below we should have a good shot at winning.
 
#616      
Illini 993
Average height for the top 8 in minutes played: Illini 6'8.3"; UH 6'4". Average weight: Illini 228; UH 213 lbs. While this might help or hurt us on D, I think our size on offense will be a problem for UH, especially in the second half. 71-65 Illini.
 
#617      
AirTran
Kernal12 said:
Haven't seen any player matchup predictions, and they aren't crystal clear to me this game. My assumption is Kylan takes Flemings. But there's a case to be made that you put your best rearview contest defender on Flemings -- since he takes a lot of midrange pullups -- and that isn't Kylan. Could be Keaton, or Andrej if he's in the game, or maybe even Ben. Sharp is a good scorer but least quick of the three, so I think Jake starts there. The coaching staff has shown the willingness to be very creative with the cross matches so hard to predict, but most straightforward matchups would be:

Flemings -- Kylan
Uzan -- Keaton
Sharp -- Jake
Cenac -- Mirk
Tugler -- Tomi

On offense I think you can pick on Cenac. I assume Tugler will take Tomi, but possibly they put him on Mirk? Whoever Cenac is on I think you put him in ball screens and backdowns. Make Tugler stand on the weakside guarding his guy at three point line (out of the lane).
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One thing to keep in mind. Houston uses primarily 5 players. We use 8 so the question is how does Houston handle Anrej, Keaton, Bam at the same time? or deal with Z and Tomi in the game at the same time? Those paradigms are going to have the greatest impact on the game. Match ups will change (they do in every game) depending on intial success or failure.

Given the offense we run and zone we play, I wouldn't expect many changes.
 
#618      
ptgrd23
Reminds me of 2024 Iowa State win. They trapped all game but Marcus was strong enough to step through the double teams. We passed very well and out rebounded them. TSJ went crazy for 29 points. We need somebody to step up with big scoring. Keaton, David or Andrej must have an all time great game to help us win.

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/boxscore/_/gameId/401638634
 
#620      
jrichisamazing
TheodoreRex said:
After making it to the sweet 16, I felt anything on top is just gravy- And I'm still reminding myself to think/feel that.. But I'd be lying if I said my mind hasn't changed a little now that I know either Nebraska or Iowa is waiting after Houston... The possibilities of being favored in an elite 8 game feels like such a dream scenario...
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100%. Florida losing completely changed the dynamics of this game from a fans perspective. If we beat Houston but lost to Florida, then I'd consider it another successful season.

Now if we beat Houston but lose to Iowa/Nebraska then it feels like a huge disappoint and choke job. The end result of an E8 is the same in both scenarios, but one feels completely different. A win here only means something if we also win the next one.

This might be controversial, but I would rather lose this game and tip my hat to a great Houston team, instead of winning this one and falling on our face in the E8.

All that being said, I think we'll be ready to go and be playing in Indy in 11 days. It's our time!
 
#623      
Roundball Sage
EllderIlliniFan said:
Our Freshmen will not allow us to lose this game. Mirk and Keaton are focused and intense.
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Don’t overlook a non-Freshman young man named Kylan Boswell – the ‘elder Statesman’ floor leader of these Illini and someone who chose to go home and represent the great Illini program. He is looking at possibly his last appearance in Orange & Blue and certainly he does NOT want that to be the case.

You always give it your best shot when you know that One Chance is all you may have left. And the Final Four is so close you can taste it.
 
#624      
Nohops 73
RockfordIllini said:
Just another data point. Per Torvik Houston is 13th in the country in defensive TO% at 20.7%. Our offensive turnover percentage is 13.0 which is top 10 in the country.

The 2 closest teams we’ve played are iowa (#15 20.5%) and Nebraska 2X (40th at 19.2%). The ole AI gave an estimated turnover percentage for us of 17.5 vs Iowa, and 15.9 and 12.4 vs Nebraska.

So generally our TO% does tick up against these sorts of teams compared to our average, but we still turn it over at a lower percentage than average. Hopefully that trend continues. If we can keep our percentage at 15% or below we should have a good shot at winning.
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I also like that we have had several days to prepare for Houston's trapping and overplaying passing lanes. They may throw in a few new wrinkles, but our guys have the BB IQ to adjust on the fly. If this were the Regional Finals game with only a day to prepare, the adjustments would be more difficult.

Let's come out confident and aggressive! If Houston falls behind in front of a "home" crowd, the pressure is on them!
 
#625      
pruman91
skyIdub said:
Kelvin🤣🤣🤣

Internet dumb dumb
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