Coaching Carousel (Basketball)

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#751      
I disagree. What he did was take years of developing a system under the tutelage of great coaches, implementing it at a lower level (JMU) and then having the exquisite timing of entering power-conference coaching at a time when he could take a raft of his own, best, P-5 quality players with him, juice the lineup from the portal using abundant resources, and implement that system immediately.

He's a very intelligent, creative coach. And a helluva salesman. He did what he did using a great system, intelligent assistants, stellar players and a Heisman QB.

Impressive and revolutionary, yes. Magical? No, IMO. Using a finance analogy, he uncovered underpriced securities in what was an inefficient market and used a low-transaction-cost strategy to earn above-market returns without using the mirage of leverage. Can he continue to earn such returns? Only if the market becomes more efficient. Football coaches, because they're hidebound, often seem to leave visible 20-dollar-bills lying in the gutter. So, perhaps he can.
No one has ever done what Cignetti did before and no one is ever going to do it again.

The only other sports comp that seems appropriate is Leicester City winning the Premier League (which was EVEN MORE unlikely from a statistical/betting odds perspective but also was a one-year wonder that immediately collapsed and never approached the same heights again, and wasn't the work of a single mastermind in the same way)
 
#752      
I disagree. What he did was take years of developing a system under the tutelage of great coaches, implementing it at a lower level (JMU) and then having the exquisite timing of entering power-conference coaching at a time when he could take a raft of his own, best, P-5 quality players with him, juice the lineup from the portal using abundant resources, and implement that system immediately.

He's a very intelligent, creative coach. And a helluva salesman. He did what he did using a great system, intelligent assistants, stellar players and a Heisman QB.

Impressive and revolutionary, yes. Magical? No, IMO. Using a finance analogy, he uncovered underpriced securities in what was an inefficient market and used a low-transaction-cost strategy to earn above-market returns without using the mirage of leverage. Can he continue to earn such returns? Only if the market becomes more efficient. Football coaches, because they're hidebound, often seem to leave visible 20-dollar-bills lying in the gutter. So, perhaps he can.
That's one hell of a sentence. I'm kind of ashamed that I understood it.
 
#753      

In the not really news, news department…

Massive deal for Wade … 7 year contract … That with easily achievable incentives will put him right at $5 million a year …

Resources over $15 million and nearly double the amount of $$ for staff …

NC State just couldn’t compete with that … And Wade wanted back with his buddies who will 100% let him do his thing and how he wants to get 💩 done …
 
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#754      
That's one hell of a sentence. I'm kind of ashamed that I understood it.
I completely understood it, and for that sentence alone, it was worth a like.

Ashamed:

Schitts Creek Comedy GIF by CBC
 
#755      
No one has ever done what Cignetti did before and no one is ever going to do it again.

The only other sports comp that seems appropriate is Leicester City winning the Premier League (which was EVEN MORE unlikely from a statistical/betting odds perspective but also was a one-year wonder that immediately collapsed and never approached the same heights again, and wasn't the work of a single mastermind in the same way)
Yeah, the difference between Cignetti and Stevens is Cignetti truly built the most dominate team in college football last season, whereas Stevens built good, not great teams that had special NCAAT runs (they were #12 in KenPom and a 5 seed on their first run and #36 in KenPom with an 8 seed on their second run. They were also #15 in KenPom and a 5 seed the year before he took over).

The quality of teams built by Stevens pale in comparison to what Cignetti built. Taking a team in the 30s to the NC game is special, though.

As I looked up these numbers, I can’t get over how poorly they used to seed teams. That might be the top reason there’s less upsets in the last few tournaments.

In 2010 (Stevens first run), here were some of the seeds:

#28 Pittsburg: 3 seed
#23 Utah St: 12 seed
#36 Vanderbilt: 4 seed
#22 Missouri: 10 seed (I’ll allow it)
#39 Oklahoma: 7 seed
#26 Dayton: 3 seed IN THE NIT
 
#756      
It was an amazing achievement, no doubt. But Stevens took over a very strong Butler program already known as a Cinderella, that was his 3rd and 4th year, a lot of luck involved in the tourney as we all know, and of course he did not in fact win a national championship.

What Cignetti did is impossible. His comps aren't coaches, it's Houdini, David Copperfield, Penn and Teller
At the risk of repeating, your last comment is a dramatic overstatement :p Granted, Cignetti may have had the greater collegiate, success, but saying someone was the first of a type doesn't necessarily mean they are equals in terms of their overall accomplishments.
 
#757      
No one has ever done what Cignetti did before and no one is ever going to do it again.

The only other sports comp that seems appropriate is Leicester City winning the Premier League (which was EVEN MORE unlikely from a statistical/betting odds perspective but also was a one-year wonder that immediately collapsed and never approached the same heights again, and wasn't the work of a single mastermind in the same way)
Lacking the GIF, I'll verbally invoke Ron Burgundy debating the origin of "San Diego" with Veronica Corningstone: "agree to disagree." ;)

Never is a long time.
 
#758      
Massive deal for Wade … 7 year contract … That with easily achievable incentives will put him right at $5 million a year …

Resources over $15 million and nearly double the amount of $$ for staff …

NC State just couldn’t compete with that … And Wade wanted back with his buddies who will 100% let him do his thing and how he wants to get 💩 done …
Is LSU even going to fire their current HC before hiring Wade?
 
#759      
As an EIU alum, I think Eastern would be a great fit for Tyler depending on what happens with Marty Simmons. While it's far from It's close to UIUC, the expections are low which gives him time to improve and learn how to be a HC, and it's honestly one of the safest jobs in the country. If he has even a little bit of success at EIU he'll be highly respected in the community. I think Eastern needs a young and hungry coach who's ready to prove themselves.
With all due respect, I would imagine he has his sights on a situation much better than Eastern, which is a on the very low end of mid major. That would be career suicide.
 
#760      
As I looked up these numbers, I can’t get over how poorly they used to seed teams. That might be the top reason there’s less upsets in the last few tournaments.
I've reminded myself of this "new era of accuracy" multiple times over while filling out my brackets for the past few years, and I still manage to underestimate the chalkiness of the current paradigm.
 
#761      
Massive deal for Wade … 7 year contract … That with easily achievable incentives will put him right at $5 million a year …

Resources over $15 million and nearly double the amount of $$ for staff …

NC State just couldn’t compete with that … And Wade wanted back with his buddies who will 100% let him do his thing and how he wants to get 💩 done …
I know LSU has a lot of money, but my goodness—between Lane and Wade, they’re looking at $45–65 million in NIL commitments, and that doesn’t even include Kim Mulkey, who you know is getting a significant amount as well. I’m honestly curious who their donors are that can supply that kind of cash, and how we could ever build something similar.

Where would $15 million put LSU men’s basketball nationally in terms of NIL? And how would that compare to Illinois? Also, do you think we could get close to $12–15 million this year if we make the Final Four?
 
#762      
I've reminded myself of this "new era of accuracy" multiple times over while filling out my brackets for the past few years, and I still manage to underestimate the chalkiness of the current paradigm.
The "upset era" of CBB is almost exactly bounded by the advent of one-and-dones at the beginning and the advent of free transfers and NIL on the back end.

Which makes sense. It started when the big schools started becoming unable to retain their best players and ended when they gained the ability to just buy the best players from the mid-major level instead.
 
#763      
No one has ever done what Cignetti did before and no one is ever going to do it again.

The only other sports comp that seems appropriate is Leicester City winning the Premier League (which was EVEN MORE unlikely from a statistical/betting odds perspective but also was a one-year wonder that immediately collapsed and never approached the same heights again, and wasn't the work of a single mastermind in the same way)
Well, I certainly hope I'm wrong since the ILLINI may meet Nebraska in the Elite 8 after we beat Houston tonight, but Fred Hoiberg at this point COULD still potentially win the National Championship at Nebraska, which given that they had never even won an NCAA basketball Tournament game in 8 previous appearances before this year would arguably place Fred in Cignetti's league when it comes to doing something no one has ever done before . . .
 
#764      
With all due respect, I would imagine he has his sights on a situation much better than Eastern, which is a on the very low end of mid major. That would be career suicide.
Yeah, there's zero chance Tyler would leave Illini for Eastern.

I think it'll take a minimum of a high mid-major and if he continues building on offense what he's done at Illinois, it'll be better than that. (I'm not even convinced he'll leave Illinois and could possibly be the successor to Brad down the road). Tyler is still only 29.
 
#765      
Massive deal for Wade … 7 year contract … That with easily achievable incentives will put him right at $5 million a year …

Resources over $15 million and nearly double the amount of $$ for staff …

NC State just couldn’t compete with that … And Wade wanted back with his buddies who will 100% let him do his thing and how he wants to get 💩 done …
Insert strong a$$ offer joke here.
 
#770      
Yeah, the difference between Cignetti and Stevens is Cignetti truly built the most dominate team in college football last season, whereas Stevens built good, not great teams that had special NCAAT runs (they were #12 in KenPom and a 5 seed on their first run and #36 in KenPom with an 8 seed on their second run. They were also #15 in KenPom and a 5 seed the year before he took over).

The quality of teams built by Stevens pale in comparison to what Cignetti built. Taking a team in the 30s to the NC game is special, though.

As I looked up these numbers, I can’t get over how poorly they used to seed teams. That might be the top reason there’s less upsets in the last few tournaments.

In 2010 (Stevens first run), here were some of the seeds:

#28 Pittsburg: 3 seed
#23 Utah St: 12 seed
#36 Vanderbilt: 4 seed
#22 Missouri: 10 seed (I’ll allow it)
#39 Oklahoma: 7 seed
#26 Dayton: 3 seed IN THE NIT
These are ALMOST as bad as..
#10 Loyola as an 8 seed in 21
#2(!) Houston as a 5 seed in 22 (I think they were #5 going into the tourney but still)
 
#771      
With all due respect, I would imagine he has his sights on a situation much better than Eastern, which is a on the very low end of mid major. That would be career suicide.
That is a fair point, it's pretty difficult to recruit here in Charleston. I teach and Coach HS girls basketball here and it's a tough place to bring in recruits, let alone have any resemblance of basketball success. That's why we don't fire coaches at EIU, there's really not a lot of people vying for the position. Just wishful thinking on my part.
 
#772      
Well, I certainly hope I'm wrong since the ILLINI may meet Nebraska in the Elite 8 after we beat Houston tonight, but Fred Hoiberg at this point COULD still potentially win the National Championship at Nebraska, which given that they had never even won an NCAA basketball Tournament game in 8 previous appearances before this year would arguably place Fred in Cignetti's league when it comes to doing something no one has ever done before . . .
If Hoiberg won a national title at Nebraska that would be extraordinary, no question.

AND YET, it's the nature of the tournament and CBB that you can win it all without being the best team, which Nebraska isn't even particularly close to.

Plus, Hoiberg has painstakingly built that program up step by step over seven years, a job he has long seemed well suited for.

Indiana just woke up one day as Alabama by the sheer force of one previously unknown guy.
 
#774      
If Hoiberg won a national title at Nebraska that would be extraordinary, no question.

AND YET, it's the nature of the tournament and CBB that you can win it all without being the best team, which Nebraska isn't even particularly close to.

Plus, Hoiberg has painstakingly built that program up step by step over seven years, a job he has long seemed well suited for.

Indiana just woke up one day as Alabama by the sheer force of one previously unknown guy.
Why we should have googled him
 
#775      
That is a fair point, it's pretty difficult to recruit here in Charleston. I teach and Coach HS girls basketball here and it's a tough place to bring in recruits, let alone have any resemblance of basketball success. That's why we don't fire coaches at EIU, there's really not a lot of people vying for the position. Just wishful thinking on my part.

Taking the recruits to that Mexican restaurant near campus should seal the deal ... Mi Casa Tu Casa ... Place is legendary ... ELITE ...
 
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