Pregame: Illinois vs Houston, 9:05pm CT, TBS

Status
Not open for further replies.
#151      
Fly Illini Fly!
On March 26, 2005 — Illinois defeated Arizona in a legendary E8 game to advance to the Final 4:

IMG_0572.jpeg


On March 26, 1989 — Illinois beat Syracuse in a thriller to advance to the F4, 89-86:

IMG_0573.jpeg
 
#152      
sacraig
PopChampaign said:
A lot of people are throwing predictions around right now, but let’s not forget what this team is.

We made the Sweet 16 for a reason.

Our guys are locked in & we’re going to get their best effort tonigh, and at any moment we’ve got 3-4 guys who are capable of putting up career high performances.

Houston is a tough opponent, no doubt. But so are we. We’re built for games like this (we’ve said it all year, tournament ready), and we don’t back down from anyone.

Stay confident. Stay together. We’re right where we need to be. Win or lose, they’ll leave it all on the floor tonight fellas, I have no doubt about that.

I-L-L
Click to expand...
A team capable of steamrolling anyone or laying a huge defensive egg on any given night?

I have no idea what to expect. We can beat Houston. We can also get run off the court by Flemings.
 
#154      
WyattEarp
sacraig said:
A team capable of steamrolling anyone or laying a huge defensive egg on any given night?

I have no idea what to expect. We can beat Houston. We can also get run off the court by Flemings.
Click to expand...
I think this time we run those damn flemmings off a cliff.
 
#155      
illinibbcz
March2TheArch said:
If the game is in the 60s I don’t see us winning. I see Houston scoring 80 given our recent defensive efforts. As such…

I don’t think we’re gonna have as much issue with their defense if we were able to score as well as we did against Michigan, MSU, Purdue, Nebraska, Iowa (all Sweet 16 teams). But we gave up 30 each to Boyd and Blackwell. We let Fears get 20/15. We let that Maryland frosh go ape !!!! on us.

I just don’t think we can stop their offense. So our only chance to win is to score 80+ points. Thats gonna be:

- Twelve 3s (36pts)

- Fifteen 2s (30pts)

- 14/19 FTs (ie we need to draw some shooting fouls, and hopefully convert on some 1 and 1s)

Now the latter two categories seem doable, as Houston does foul a bit.

But where do we get Twelve 3s:
- Keaton needs 2 (they’re gonna run him off the line)
- Ben needs 3
- Jake needs 3
- Tomi needs 2
- Boswell/Andrej/Z need to clutch up to collectively find the other 4.

- - -

We have to accept Houston will score 80pts. They play slow tempo. Maybe only 65 possessions. They anchor more on 2s than 3s. So need to limit their points/possession to 1.2.

- - -

With the tempo Houston plays at, unless we’re getting more possessions than them via ORebs, and we’re scoring more pts/possession (ie we hit more 3s than they do), I don’t see how we’ll have enough scoring opportunities to hit 85 or so points. Unless we’re torching the nets.

- - -

I feel like Houston know we love the 3 ball and will try to force offense inside the paint. I hope the Ivisic bros seal well to give Mirk and Keaton a chance to score inside. If they dare us into 3s, have to just take them and play for the OReb.
Click to expand...
You have 10 right there, don't we only 2 more?
 
#157      
March2TheArch
The X-factor for me is Mirk.

He’s truly our only threat to score from all 3 levels (I’d love to add Keaton and Tomi but they’ve lately been lacking in the short and long range, respectively). If he can muster 10 key points (a couple 3s, a mid-range Mirk hook or an up and under lay-in, couple free throws) and 4 rebounds in the first half, that will really open up the floor for the rest of the team.

We hopefully take what the defense gives us but that implies one of Keaton or Mirk should have opportunity to operate. If Houston is quieting both of’em, we may keep it competitive till the under 12 timeout of the second half but be basically be out of the game by the under 8 (ala vs. Michigan).
 
#158      
RML
We know that the team WANTS (badly) to win.
We know the team CAN win.
Only one thing left to do...
 
#159      
CaptainCrutch
There’s going to come a point in tonight’s game where we get punched in the mouth. If you watched the first two games (or any game this season against a quality opponent) there’s usually a moment where things get hairy. It’s gonna come tonight. If we try to shoot our way out of it I think we’re toast. If we decide to hit back and get physical, I think we win.

Read the last 4 words again, baby. Illinois 76 - Houston 72
 
  • Like
Reactions: RML
#160      
skyIdub
I'm not lost in the metrics....but whatever was said during the team only meeting...called by Mirk I think.....has resonated. Especially with Tomi.

That last game he was as locked in defensively as I have seen for at least the last half or more of the year.
His defensive recovery, rim defense...high hands.....outstanding.

If he brings that intensity again...and drops a couple three balls......Houston is in trouble.

source.gif
 
#161      
FightinIllini30
We absolutely can beat Houston. I know I’m not saying anything crazy here but I know there are many (myself included at times) who are worried about execution in the big ones because of what we’ve experienced. Houston has one huge advantage, two if you count defense but one very large advantage which is coaching. Their coach is better than ours by an Illinois mile.

HOWEVER, this is the most beatable Houston team in the past few years. Nowhere near as tough as the past two years. Their best win is either Texas tech (who we beat and who also beat them) or Arkansas who is quite good but not a top 10 team. We played a much harder schedule and beat better teams. We have also been very good defensively recently and have the opportunity to shut the water off for Flemings or sharp but probably not both.

Illinois by 4.
 
#165      
Hessel Blvd
Mistakenj said:
I think tonight’s game will tell us 2 things: 1) do we need to get more athletic next year and 2) can Underwood make in-game adjustments and out coach a really good coach.

Werner’s last podcast brought up something pretty revealing….the only single digit seed Brad has beaten in the tournament at Illinois was Iowa State.
Click to expand...
why tonight's game? i king of feel like those are questions that get answered over time, not in instances
 
#166      
WyattEarp
March2TheArch said:
Ya he rarely gets these calls! Every time he fades to avoid contact and create space for his shot, the refs are letting them play.

Go watch Ingram’s foul on Sean May in the final minutes of our title game, he barely gets a hip check as Sean spin/drives baseline, and refs were automatic on the foul call. Illinois/Ingram even accepted and understood that was going to be called a foul.

I saw a play in the UCLA game where UConn’s Karaban hip checks Perry on a drive to push him underneath the backboard then blocks his acrobatic layup attempt. No call.

Honestly, this is a prime time game in Houston vs. a Houston team that like UConn and Duke has marketed itself as a hyper-defensive team. Refs will think thrice before calling a minor hip check or wrist slap every time Keaton, Boz, or Andrej attack the cup. It is what it is.

We benefited tremendously from this when we had TSJ. If you go back and watch the Zona comeback Dee very likely gets away with a reach in / hand slap during our epic comeback. We were swarming them the final 4min of the game and rarely got a foul called on

I’m tired of us taking margin from both ends. Keaton and Andrej have drawn a fair amount of fouls. Mirk puts his head down and bulldozes towards the cup. We’re more than happy to draw fouls in ‘that’ way. But when a Fears or Boyd draw fouls doing it even more intentionally, we cry foul (pun intended). Some of those Keaton and Andrej drives are for fairly tough lay-ins. We love when they get bailed out with the foul call as we shoot 80% from the line.

I think we should still attack Tugler. Even if we don’t get a foul call, he’s hopefully out of position for the DReb (something Houston is already not elite at).
Click to expand...

IMG_7816.jpeg
 
#167      
Kernal12
We are #1 in the country in free throw rate against. Houston is #351 (nearly dead last) in going to the free throw line, and #274 in free throw rate against (i.e. they foul and send other teams to the line A LOT).

Something is seriously wrong if the foul counts and free throws are even close to even tonight.

Praying we don't see High Knees or Courtney Green.
 
#168      
PopChampaign
sacraig said:
A team capable of steamrolling anyone or laying a huge defensive egg on any given night?

I have no idea what to expect. We can beat Houston. We can also get run off the court by Flemings.
Click to expand...
200.gif


anything in life can go the wrong way, we spend enough of our time invested in everything ILLINOIS that hell… I’d rather be delusionally optimistic than to expect a L. Spills over.
 
#172      
grue2
It’s hard to not believe that he’s been injured since UCLA. I think the team is doing its best to not expose that fact at this risk of teams targeting us/him accordingly. He’ll have a long enough lay-off before pre-draft workouts to heal up. But we’ve been snake-bitten since that west coast trip. Truly hate conference realignments. Makes such little sense to have to do weeklong west coast trips.
Click to expand...
Imagine what it is like to play for one of the west coast team.
 
#174      
Fin513
Leron Black was a career 40% (32/79) 3pt shooter for Illinois. Who'da thought?
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back