Yep, it will either be a couple hours of luxuriating in all of the TV and online coverage, or a couple hours of Total Distraction Theater. If it’s the latter, I’m hoping that there isn’t a random basketball reference in the PBS documentary about Bella Abzug.
Pregame: Illinois vs Houston, 9:05pm CT, TBS
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The Galloping Ghost
- Washington, DC
Beat me to it. Talking about offensive rebounding(which is cleaning up missed shots), refs, etc.....not to put pressure on one guy, but to me, it comes down to Wagler.
He hasn't played a game where he's lived up to the superstar level in a LONG while. When I say superstar level, that doesn't means gaudy scoring numbers alone. It means gaudy numbers that are efficient. Can't have a 6 of 16, 7 of 17 type of game. He can't have a first half where he has no effect on the game(1 of 6), then lean on a 8 minute burst in the second half to bolster some stats. The ball can't stick with him as the shot clock runs down against this team, then an offensive scramble and bad shot ensues. I know that people blame the refs, but I agree with Barkley here. He's GOT to finish through contact, which means HE has to create contact and finish vs getting pushed off his run to the basket and get his shot blocked. The defensive pressure that Houston puts on, he HAS to be strong with the ball. He's going to get blitzed. MSU started that trend and it's continued. He's also going to get targeted on the defensive end. They are going to go right at him. He's got to stay in front of his man and not allow penetration. He's having trouble with quicker guards and more physical guards opening him up, getting him on their shoulders and it causes a defensive breakdown.
I think Boswell will be on Flemings. He's also a freshman and another guy who is considered a star. Ultimately, it's a players game. It's not the coaches, it's not the refs, it's not the fans....it's our guys being better than their guys. For us, it starts with Wagler. For them, it's all about Flemings. There are good players all over the floor for both teams, but late in a game....those are the guys.
This is the biggest spotlight game all year. There is only one other game going and that starts earlier. It's where stars shine and names are made. It is beyond critical that he plays an outstanding 40 minutes. If he doesn't, we're in trouble.
It's a lot to put on a freshman's shoulders, but he'll be the focal point and he has to perform. Let's be honest, this is the worst matchup possible for him. They are extremely physical, they're extremely quick, they rally to the ball, they help off beautifully...that's what makes Houston good. He has to overcome that. It's one of those it is what it is situations.
Last year vs Kentucky, the only guy on the floor who looked physically imposing enough to handle them was Boswell. For anyone that was there live, it was obvious right from the beginning. In that game, Riley(very similar in stature physically) got bullied and he settled for just terrible shots and he couldn't stay in front of his man. Time after time after time....we'd score 4 or even 6 straight to get the lead down to 7 or 8, then they'd attack the paint and the lead would balloon right back up to 15. We'd go on a drought because we couldn't get to the rim and they'd spurt because we couldn't keep them out of it.
We need a big performance from a couple of guys and IMO.....it starts with Keaton. Need a full 40.
If the game is in the 60s I don’t see us winning. I see Houston scoring 80 given our recent defensive efforts. As such…
I don’t think we’re gonna have as much issue with their defense if we were able to score as well as we did against Michigan, MSU, Purdue, Nebraska, Iowa (all Sweet 16 teams). But we gave up 30 each to Boyd and Blackwell. We let Fears get 20/15. We let that Maryland frosh go ape !!!! on us.
I just don’t think we can stop their offense. So our only chance to win is to score 80+ points. Thats gonna be:
- Twelve 3s (36pts)
- Fifteen 2s (30pts)
- 14/19 FTs (ie we need to draw some shooting fouls, and hopefully convert on some 1 and 1s)
Now the latter two categories seem doable, as Houston does foul a bit.
But where do we get Twelve 3s:
- Keaton needs 2 (they’re gonna run him off the line)
- Ben needs 3
- Jake needs 3
- Tomi needs 2
- Boswell/Andrej/Z need to clutch up to collectively find the other 4.
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We have to accept Houston will score 80pts. They play slow tempo. Maybe only 65 possessions. They anchor more on 2s than 3s. So need to limit their points/possession to 1.2.
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With the tempo Houston plays at, unless we’re getting more possessions than them via ORebs, and we’re scoring more pts/possession (ie we hit more 3s than they do), I don’t see how we’ll have enough scoring opportunities to hit 85 or so points. Unless we’re torching the nets.
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I feel like Houston know we love the 3 ball and will try to force offense inside the paint. I hope the Ivisic bros seal well to give Mirk and Keaton a chance to score inside. If they dare us into 3s, have to just take them and play for the OReb.
I don’t think we’re gonna have as much issue with their defense if we were able to score as well as we did against Michigan, MSU, Purdue, Nebraska, Iowa (all Sweet 16 teams). But we gave up 30 each to Boyd and Blackwell. We let Fears get 20/15. We let that Maryland frosh go ape !!!! on us.
I just don’t think we can stop their offense. So our only chance to win is to score 80+ points. Thats gonna be:
- Twelve 3s (36pts)
- Fifteen 2s (30pts)
- 14/19 FTs (ie we need to draw some shooting fouls, and hopefully convert on some 1 and 1s)
Now the latter two categories seem doable, as Houston does foul a bit.
But where do we get Twelve 3s:
- Keaton needs 2 (they’re gonna run him off the line)
- Ben needs 3
- Jake needs 3
- Tomi needs 2
- Boswell/Andrej/Z need to clutch up to collectively find the other 4.
- - -
We have to accept Houston will score 80pts. They play slow tempo. Maybe only 65 possessions. They anchor more on 2s than 3s. So need to limit their points/possession to 1.2.
- - -
With the tempo Houston plays at, unless we’re getting more possessions than them via ORebs, and we’re scoring more pts/possession (ie we hit more 3s than they do), I don’t see how we’ll have enough scoring opportunities to hit 85 or so points. Unless we’re torching the nets.
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I feel like Houston know we love the 3 ball and will try to force offense inside the paint. I hope the Ivisic bros seal well to give Mirk and Keaton a chance to score inside. If they dare us into 3s, have to just take them and play for the OReb.
skyIdub
"I can't tell you. Secret."
Tell me Z’s dunk is the only Illinois highlight you’ve seen in 6 months without telling me Z’s dunk is the only Illinois highlight you’ve seen in 6 months.
It’s hard to not believe that he’s been injured since UCLA. I think the team is doing its best to not expose that fact at this risk of teams targeting us/him accordingly. He’ll have a long enough lay-off before pre-draft workouts to heal up. But we’ve been snake-bitten since that west coast trip. Truly hate conference realignments. Makes such little sense to have to do weeklong west coast trips.
Sounds like a familiar strategy (remember Donovan Clingan?)
Getting my viewing apparatus ready.
Illinois has score under 70 once all year and the only way that is happening again is if they walk out to an all red floor with nba 3 point lines on it.
Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
Any posters in Houston?? Would love if we at least have a solid showing like we had in the 2024 Sweet Sixteen in Boston. I know UH is right down the road and this feels pretty once in a lifetime for Nebraska fans (plus I’m sure a good chunk of Iowa fans will make it), so I’ll be very happy if we just sold our allotment!
skyIdub
"I can't tell you. Secret."
I mean, I live here now, but barring a ticket price crater I think I'll enjoy this from my couch.
I'm just torn between "being there" for $3-500 nosebleeds...and actually seeing the game. Not to mention, if we sh#t our shorts it's 20' to my bed....versus driving an hour in Houston.
Welcome to the site, and yeah, I agree with your assessment. This game will likely be won on the boards, the 50/50 loose balls, and how efficient Illinois is at making their threes and Houston making their midrange jumpers respectively. I think the first 4 minutes will be very interesting to see how each team's gameplan is working. And I can see either team having early advantage there depending on whether Illinois can make the right reads on the doubles and whether Houston is comfortably draining midrange shots against the drop coverage. First 4 minutes after halftime will also be extremely interesting. Both Illinois and Houston have had 2nd Half dry spells at times this season that have allowed good opponents to go on big runs and it has cost each of our teams some games. I would not be surprised to see that either this game as both teams have the ability to take over a game.
The major intangible will probably be how this game is officiated. These 2 teams are so asymmetric in their approach to physicality on defense and fouling. If the refs let them play and allow a lot of contact, or want to keep fouls even between teams, that'll be advantage Houston. If they call touch fouls, advantage Illinois. It's going to be extremely hard as a ref to call this game in a way that's balanced for each team. But hoping they find a compromise.
Overall, my gut feel is Houston takes this one. Hopefully I'm wrong, but seems like we've had several players in a prolonged shooting cold spell behind the arc for a month. So if we've been saving up for a day to go nuclear, it would be very welcome to be today.
I think Keaton’s definitely been nicked up and it’s affected his play since the west coast trip. He’s been more tentative in his drives and shooting more off balance shots vs going up strong, and shot fewer step backs.
That said, I think last week showed he was on the mend, and while maybe he didn’t have a 40 ball, he was reasonably efficient and filled up the stat sheet while taking what the game gave him, and he was 6-11 from 3.
I actually think he’s mostly been okay to pretty good with aggressive, physical play. When he has struggled I think he’s gotten Jordan ruled and just didn’t get the calls. Houston is physical but not overly big. At 6’6 he should be able to see over the top of their defense and score if he gets into the paint.
A superstar game from Keaton would be amazing. But it’s not necessary for us to win. We just need him to take care of the ball, make the right read, and hit shots as opportunities allow.
That said, I think last week showed he was on the mend, and while maybe he didn’t have a 40 ball, he was reasonably efficient and filled up the stat sheet while taking what the game gave him, and he was 6-11 from 3.
I actually think he’s mostly been okay to pretty good with aggressive, physical play. When he has struggled I think he’s gotten Jordan ruled and just didn’t get the calls. Houston is physical but not overly big. At 6’6 he should be able to see over the top of their defense and score if he gets into the paint.
A superstar game from Keaton would be amazing. But it’s not necessary for us to win. We just need him to take care of the ball, make the right read, and hit shots as opportunities allow.
Noblesville Illini
- Nappanee, IN
OnlyOrange
- Belleville, IL
Thanks for coming on the board!! We're all looking forward to this one. Hope for a great game (and a massive Illini victory)
Jokes on us - Illini won the first two games so we haven't been put out of our misery yet. Maybe this misery will continue unabated until next season. One can only hope.
IMO, game comes down to four things: minimize turnovers that lead to fast break points, win the rebound margin, make open shots especially 3s and keep sharp focus on defense no blown assignments or being out of position.
If we do those 4 things our size and skill will overcome their quickness and take us on to an elite 8 match up in the big ten south.
If we do those 4 things our size and skill will overcome their quickness and take us on to an elite 8 match up in the big ten south.
I think this game is determined based on if we can can get Tugler in foul trouble. Would love to see us use Andrej to go straight at him early.
Kind of but Clingan averaged 2.5 blocks a game and was 7'2" with a 7'7" wingspan. While Tugler averages 1.5 blocks a game and is 6'7" with a 7'6" wingspan. In my eyes its a little bit of a different animal.
beat Houston and then the squaks please. Anybody else remember this blast from the past?
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