RabidDawgClassic
- Los Angeles, CA
The Final Four
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Fighter of the Nightman
- Chicago, IL
I didn't want to jinx the UConn thread by talking about anything beyond that game and I already took up the regular Illini Basketball thread with a long post, so apologies if this is in the wrong spot. However, here is my VERY non-analytical, gut feeling outlook as we head into the Final Four.
(1) This will be controversial (especially to those who prefer the analytics-based approach), but I really think if we play as well as we did vs. Iowa and especially Houston, we are going to the Championship Game. Would it be ideal to shoot a lot better?? Yes. However, put me in the camp that Iowa really had turned a corner, and they would have been dangerous to literally every single team they got to face for the rest of the year. If we bring the defensive intensity and just overall GRIT we've had these past couple games, I think these guys are going to find a way to win, even if it's ugly and even if it's cause for many heart attacks, lol. If we can also play a bit more loose and shoot around our average or above while maintaining that same defensive intensity?? Never bet against Hurley in March, but man ... I think we can do this.
(2) I don't think it's really worth our while to distinguish too much between Michigan and Arizona, however fun it might be to kill time before the games begin. The fact is, they're both really good and we could face different challenges or advantages in one matchup vs. the other, but it probably washes out. A lot of folks have mentioned that we have already seen Michigan and are familiar with them, but I can also be persuaded to take the totally opposite approach ... the Big Ten appears to truly be much, much better than anyone had anticipated, and there could be value in taking a swing at a bit more of an unknown opponent in Arizona and seeing what happens. Another plus of Arizona would be that the Michigan fans from Saturday would be dumping tickets in huge numbers, and Monday would be even more of a home game than Saturday will be. Basic point is, I don't think it's worth stressing about who we play on Monday if we win Saturday. I'm looking forward to hopefully beating UConn and remaining in my seat to drink 6-7 celebratory beers as I watch Michigan and Arizona hopefully play an amazing game that goes into 10 OTs!
(3) All in all, I think we can obviously easily lose on Saturday, especially considering the weird Black Magic UConn has in March Madness. However, looking at things more optimistically, I also think we are playing at a level that is good enough to defeat UConn in front of an Illini-friendly crowd ... and we are not playing our best yet. I'm feeling cautiously optimistic about Saturday! As for Monday, I see both as equal challenges should we get there. At the end of the day, if we all of a sudden revert back to how we played against Michigan in Champaign, either one will embarrass us. If we play like we did vs. Houston or Iowa, we'll be in the game due to our toughness but it might be hard to get over the hump. If we bring the same intensity as we have lately and are lucky enough to get a good shooting night, anything can happen!! And I don't care how bad either opponent was, if we come out and just have "one of those games" like Braggin' Rights or at USC ... we will be cutting down the nets.
Let's go get a championship!!
(1) This will be controversial (especially to those who prefer the analytics-based approach), but I really think if we play as well as we did vs. Iowa and especially Houston, we are going to the Championship Game. Would it be ideal to shoot a lot better?? Yes. However, put me in the camp that Iowa really had turned a corner, and they would have been dangerous to literally every single team they got to face for the rest of the year. If we bring the defensive intensity and just overall GRIT we've had these past couple games, I think these guys are going to find a way to win, even if it's ugly and even if it's cause for many heart attacks, lol. If we can also play a bit more loose and shoot around our average or above while maintaining that same defensive intensity?? Never bet against Hurley in March, but man ... I think we can do this.
(2) I don't think it's really worth our while to distinguish too much between Michigan and Arizona, however fun it might be to kill time before the games begin. The fact is, they're both really good and we could face different challenges or advantages in one matchup vs. the other, but it probably washes out. A lot of folks have mentioned that we have already seen Michigan and are familiar with them, but I can also be persuaded to take the totally opposite approach ... the Big Ten appears to truly be much, much better than anyone had anticipated, and there could be value in taking a swing at a bit more of an unknown opponent in Arizona and seeing what happens. Another plus of Arizona would be that the Michigan fans from Saturday would be dumping tickets in huge numbers, and Monday would be even more of a home game than Saturday will be. Basic point is, I don't think it's worth stressing about who we play on Monday if we win Saturday. I'm looking forward to hopefully beating UConn and remaining in my seat to drink 6-7 celebratory beers as I watch Michigan and Arizona hopefully play an amazing game that goes into 10 OTs!
(3) All in all, I think we can obviously easily lose on Saturday, especially considering the weird Black Magic UConn has in March Madness. However, looking at things more optimistically, I also think we are playing at a level that is good enough to defeat UConn in front of an Illini-friendly crowd ... and we are not playing our best yet. I'm feeling cautiously optimistic about Saturday! As for Monday, I see both as equal challenges should we get there. At the end of the day, if we all of a sudden revert back to how we played against Michigan in Champaign, either one will embarrass us. If we play like we did vs. Houston or Iowa, we'll be in the game due to our toughness but it might be hard to get over the hump. If we bring the same intensity as we have lately and are lucky enough to get a good shooting night, anything can happen!! And I don't care how bad either opponent was, if we come out and just have "one of those games" like Braggin' Rights or at USC ... we will be cutting down the nets.
Let's go get a championship!!
EvanMiya has great insight on this. The SEC has the best average ranking because their mid/bottom teams are relatively good, but the top of the conference is relatively weak, so he created a new metric "Upper Strength Rank" (https://evanmiya.com/?conf_strength):Hold up. Do you mean to tell me that the SEC, the conference that dominates college basketball and every sport ever invented, is not represented in the 2026 NCAA Men's College Basketball Final Four?! Cancel the tournament -- it's rigged.
Here are the Torvik rankings of each Final Four team in the month of March:
Arizona - 1
Illinois - 4
Michigan - 6
UConn - 20
Edit: The only thing this means is that we have every right to believe we can win it all against these teams. Duke was #7 and we saw what UConn did there so the implication isn't that this game should be some sort of cake walk.
Arizona - 1
Illinois - 4
Michigan - 6
UConn - 20
Edit: The only thing this means is that we have every right to believe we can win it all against these teams. Duke was #7 and we saw what UConn did there so the implication isn't that this game should be some sort of cake walk.
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UConn does slightly better if you filter to just the Tournament (March 17 to present):
Arizona - 1
Illinois - 4
Michigan - 5
UConn - 14
And a lot better if you filter out the first round (March 22 to present):
Michigan - 1
Arizona - 2
Illinois - 4
UConn - 5
That being said, we are right in this. Nothing close to an easy game from hereon out, but also nothing close to an unwinnable game.
Sorry if it’s been posted but Lucas Oil gates open at 10am on Friday and Illini have the first practice slot at 11am (all times eastern).
Fan fest starts at noon but if you have a Capital One credit card, you can get in an hour earlier. Kids under 13 are free. Adults need a $15 ticket.
I-L-L
https://www.ncaa.com/mens-final-four/schedule
Fan fest starts at noon but if you have a Capital One credit card, you can get in an hour earlier. Kids under 13 are free. Adults need a $15 ticket.
I-L-L
https://www.ncaa.com/mens-final-four/schedule
pruman91
- interviewing new NL's daily....I really really am
Biggest winner of the final four? Maybe me..
My current odds that I locked in in October…
Arizona +4000
Illinois +3000
Michigan +1600
Odds I got yesterday..
UConn +1200
Going to be an okay week for me regardless, potential AMAZING (Giorgi voice) if the beloved get it done
My current odds that I locked in in October…
Arizona +4000
Illinois +3000
Michigan +1600
Odds I got yesterday..
UConn +1200
Going to be an okay week for me regardless, potential AMAZING (Giorgi voice) if the beloved get it done
So help a non bettor out. If you put $10 on each of the first three to win the NC in October and another $10 on UConn yesterday, you’d be out $40, but what’s your win look like? 120, 160, 300 and 400 for UConn, Michigan, IL and Arizona respectively? Am I doing that math correctly?Biggest winner of the final four? Maybe me..
My current odds that I locked in in October…
Arizona +4000
Illinois +3000
Michigan +1600
Odds I got yesterday..
UConn +1200
Going to be an okay week for me regardless, potential AMAZING (Giorgi voice) if the beloved get it done
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
If you put $100 on each of those bets, you are going to have a very nice guarantee of between $900 and $3,700.Biggest winner of the final four? Maybe me..
My current odds that I locked in in October…
Arizona +4000
Illinois +3000
Michigan +1600
Odds I got yesterday..
UConn +1200
Going to be an okay week for me regardless, potential AMAZING (Giorgi voice) if the beloved get it done
For your sake, I will root for an Illinois/Arizona champ game, which would guarantee winnings of $2,700 and $3,700 (implied $100 bets).
I want an all BIG finals. Out of conference games want to beat SEC teams most but Big12 biggest challenge in BB. Enemy rooted for MSU but not proud of it.
During our last Final Four game, I was working at the Pizza Hut on campus on Green Street. I was able to get the championship night off if I volunteered to close for the Final Four game, so I took the chance! Obviously it was super busy with orders but we had a TV with cable in the dining room, so I figured it would be easy to watch parts. I barely remember catching any of the game, but I recall starting to pull away in the 2nd half and I checked in less frequently. After we won, I remember the outflow of people onto the streets made it really hard to deliver pizzas for a solid hour. Because we were so busy, the closing work took extra long, but it was OK because we jsut went to Joe's Brewery afterwards with some fresh pizzas, drank some beers, and played some darts.
so weird Morez does this in every Dusty postgame interview:
The Sprouting Divot
Invisible and Bulletproof
- Miracle Mile
I didn't have Iowa on my bingo card (and you overlooked the Houston factor - we owed them for 2022), but otherwise, this is the precise reasoning I employed when completing my soon-to-be winning bracket.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
He wore stupid sunglasses in the BTN postgame interviews on the B1G QF Friday. I could see from my seats at the UC. All I could think of is attention seeking child. He is a great player, no doubt, but I wonder if his personality would have had a negative effect on the Illini squad (had he not gone portaling).
So I dug out my binoculars today to check them out in preparation for Saturday. In the case was a newspaper. From St. Louis. From 2005. From the Final Four.
Curbelo Fanboy
BERTBALL IS LIFE
I won't lie. I picked us to lose in round 2 to Carolina. I was so despondent at the end of the season with how we finished. In January I was starting to think this could be something special & then as soon as I started having those thoughts they fell off a bit.
Getting to the final four puts Brad in a much different light IMO. Winning it would make him legendary.
I know it's irrational & Weber's time had come, but if he had won that title game in 2005 I'd probably have been fine with letting him stay longer.
2 weeks ago I jokingly said maybe K State, Texas, etc would offer Brad & we could get a "better" coach. Glad to be proven wrong. And the criticism is only from a place of caring so much. Too much I'm sure. I've dreamed of what it would be like to get 2 more wins since I was like 10 (54 now).
I remember the screwjob at Rupp that deprived my favorite high school baller ever Bruce Douglas from a Final Four. I still haven't gotten over 1989. That was the one that got away. 2005 was heartbreaking but Carolina was a load & no shame in losing to the co best team.
I'm a Cub fan & I lived with that angst for a long time (84, the Bartman game, etc, etc). It happened for them & I know it can happen here. It's just so gut wrenching.
JUST GET 2 MORE. SOMEHOW SOMEWAY
Please.... we're in the Final Four. Way better than most would have anticipated at the start of the season (or the start of the tournament). Everything's good, nothing can be a kick in the nuts at this point. I guess if we lost like Duke did yesterday, that would suck. But I wouldn't call it a kick in the nuts.
You haven't used them in 21 years?
Joel Goodson
- how was I to know, she was with the Russians too?
one of these things is not like the others:
I have, but never bothered to pull the papers out of the case, I guess.
Curbelo Fanboy
BERTBALL IS LIFE
You’re giving Ann Arbor too much credit. She’s a straight up w h o r e.
Spacing to beat the spell checker.
I mean this in the nicest way possible and not in the usual condescending way....
You really need to get outside and touch grass. These are 19-22 year olds. There will be ups and downs and nothing good or healthy comes from being so negative.
We probably won't win the title this year. We could and we may but it's not the probable outcome.
I hope you can learn to enjoy the ride.
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