If you include the first round, we're pretty balanced, and ahead of Michigan (but I saw the same thing as you when I filtered by Q1 opponents since the Wisc BTT game and was shocked we had the best defense)
Pregame: Illinois vs UConn, Saturday, April 4th, 5:09pm CT, TBS
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Battle89
- Cary-Grove, the better Trojan team
Yeah, I was in the nosebleeds in 2005 for the FF. While very cool to have been there, you really couldn't see much. Players were like ants.
I hear you and clearly understand your perspective:
(1) Quantitatively speaking, Kenpom has a slightly negative correlation to outcome. Taking points in Kenpom spread is a 59.3% winner after 5% vig. That is 7 years of data covering over 20,000 NCAA games. and 1-1 in underdog situations has no statistical value.
(2) How UCONN played against St. John's has no more relevance to how we played against Michigan at home. UCONN isn't playing St. John's on Saturday and we aren't playing Michigan on Saturday. Moreover you are mixing metaphores. You either want to use how a team plays and what their statistical average in quantified statistical areas (FG%, Rebounds, etc) or you can do the "eye test." But the two (stats or ranking and eye test) don't mix.
(3) I wasn't making any comparisons of this team to 2024. In fact, I was stating the exact opposite. The entire Illini staff learned from playing in the elite 8. When you look at the team on the floor on Saturday it is a direct reflection to changes made in terms of personel and approach to game management which resulted from the UCONN loss two years ago.
(4) I am professionally what is known as a "quant" and have been for over 44 years let me leave you with this:
Exact Calculation:
Each NCAA tournament game has 2 possible outcomes: win or loss. Over 18 games, there are 2¹⁸ = 262,144 possible win/loss sequences.
- Number of sequences with exactly 17 wins (and 1 loss): There are 18 such sequences (you can lose any one of the 18 games).
- Number of sequences with 18 wins (perfect): 1 sequence.
Probability of 17 or 18 wins: 19 / 262,144 ≈ 0.007248% (or about 1 in 13,797).
Odds against exactly 17 wins: Roughly 14,563 to 1.Odds against 17 or 18 wins: Roughly 13,797 to 1.
Only 2 other teams in the history of NCAA basketball has ever been able to do what UCONN has done in the past 4 years. It took UCLA 5 years to do it. In the 1960's the path to the NCAA tournament was more difficult and virtually all of the teams in the tourney were nationally ranked. Duke's 1990 - 1993 (4 seasons) teams won 18 of 20 and two national titles. Florida won back to back titles but 13 tourney wins in 4 years.
Please do not get me wrong, I am a 60 year Illni fan and have traveled from the corners of the world to watch them play. But to question UCONN's proficency isn't (mathematically speaking) intellectually honest. If we beat them on Saturday, we will have accomplished something.
No question. When the Illini hired their AD. Without him we have none of this current history.
Another key early moment is when a great young talent out of Florida was not afraid to come into Cold Country to play ball. Ayo helped to further pave the path.
Illinifan533
- Normal, Illinois
Will forever love Trent Frazier for sticking with Illinois after the coach he committed to was fired.
Indeed...
He started the game, committed a turnover on our first possession, picked up a foul at 18:33, got an assist and made a 3, then was subbed out at 16:23 (ILL up 8-5).
He went back in at 14:00 (ILL 15-12), missed a 3, picked up his second foul at 12:05, subbed out at 11:46 (ILL 23-12), and did not return in the half (ILL 43-32 at half).
He started the second half, got an ORB followed by a turnover, then picked up his third foul at 17:47, and subbed out at 14:14 (UConn 52-39).
He came back in at 11:57 (UConn 60-43), missed a layup, left again at 9:53 (UConn 64-45) and never returned.
While he had some good stat lines against bad opponents before that game, he struggled against TT, Alabama, and UConn: collectively 22 pts (4-12 from 2, 2-9 from 3, 8-11 FT), 2 AST, 5 TO, 11 REB, 8 fouls (fouled out vs Alab).
It's amazing how quickly the switch flipped for him a week later vs Tennessee on Dec 6 (an efficient 16pts and 5 AST 0 TO). He didn't really have a bad stat line until MSU on Feb 7. Maryland was an inefficient shooting night, but 7 AST and 0 TO made up for that.
Presumably the staff saw the role for him wasn't working, and rather than leave him in to suffer, limited his minutes, implemented a new role in practice, and let him cook.
Genuinely feel like that game was the turning point of the season. Yes people can look at the 12 game win streak after Nebraska — but our elite offense took shape after UCONN, starting from Tennessee.
Orangetool
Give me back my Afta, heh heh
I have been regional championship games basking for days. (Game basking as defined as sublime reliving moments)
Nothing but game highlights, compilations, national media interviews, podcasts, just huge attention being paid to my team.
Not gonna lie, I'm wallowing in it. Just too sweet.
Nothing but game highlights, compilations, national media interviews, podcasts, just huge attention being paid to my team.
Not gonna lie, I'm wallowing in it. Just too sweet.
Illini2010-11
- Sugar Grove
This is all very interesting, and does show that UCONN has done nearly the impossible. However, I am not sold on the basis of your calculation. You are taking probabilistic assumptions that every game is inherently a 50/50 probability of one outcome or the other. We know this is not true. UCONN built a juggernaut during this stretch, and many of their games were significantly higher than a coin flip outcome (due to both coaching and superior rosters). Those teams have absolutely no significance on this year. The truth is that when the games are more of a coin flip, UCONN plays almost exactly to the coin flip outcome.
They have no doubt had a heck of a run, but I think karma says that their luck is about to run out. The OP is correct to not read way too much in the recent UCONN dominance from a pure win/loss perspective. There is very good reason to think that Illinois has a very good shot at winning this game.
I like our chances vs UConn.
We are a way better team vs when we played them before.
Synched up, better O and way better D.
Duke got up by 19 and let them come back - that's possibly the biggest thing for BU to address.
Did I say I like our chances? Yep, sure do.
We are a way better team vs when we played them before.
Synched up, better O and way better D.
Duke got up by 19 and let them come back - that's possibly the biggest thing for BU to address.
Did I say I like our chances? Yep, sure do.
Illini in Italy
- Illini HQ, Florida Panhandle
Yeah, it’s mostly tongue in cheek regarding the “experts’” picks.
Things have changed. Last time Mihailo played 18 min and Lee played 11. Keaton played 14 and took 3 shots. Mirk played 18 minutes. Z took 5 3s and Boz took 8 3s. That really isnt that meaningful. Our two freshman studs will play 65 to 75 minutes combined and not 32 total and Big Z and Kylan arent taking 13 threes. The quick threes for those two guys dont happen much anymore.
Orangetool
Give me back my Afta, heh heh
Is it me or is Keaton the face of this tournament now?
I see his image everywhere.
I see his image everywhere.
Other than we are even with Arizona after 2005, I agree with you. I believe we are meant to play Micheegan in the final. Other than UNC chickened out，we are only missing UK.
If anyone has it saved… go back and watch it! You will be more confident for our coming match up! It is much more then the who played minutes!!!
We took shorts early in the clock, were not communicating on D and tried pushing the pace. The team was trying to learn the system and play together… the staff was figuring out who plays how many minutes.
Once Wags went to point it all slowed way down and we hunted! We took our time to look for better options.
The D has evolved to where I feel it can be the difference maker! A lot of adjustment , growth and trust is where we are!
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RabidDawgClassic
- Los Angeles, CA
Understood where you are coming from but mathematically speaking, that is not correct.
The construct of the tournament has changed slightly in 50 years but all probability starts with a coin flip unless there is something statistically significant over time that has a back - test. As the Kenpom data shows, its not possible to with any certaintly whatsoever to predict the outcome of a game.
What you are missing (and trust me alot of very smart people have had to think about this long and hard) is that the coin flip - is more accurate than Kenpom. If you want something with 75% correlation (in terms of predicting outcome) - look to FGA%, Rebounding and FTs made on a season long basis (time series data over the past 25 years). But even those numbers don't get you to 85% correlation.
Let's win on Saturday.
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Our getting together was kinda like the movie Fever Pitch with Jimmy Fallon. We started dating in February and got married in September. Then November comes along and I find out she is a Duke. I always tease her that if I knew before hand we would have never gotten together.Yea, you don't want to compound your mistakes
Both great points. We are going to need to play straight up MTM (when we play it) and we are going to need use zone. If we try double team or rotation (unless its at the rim) we are going to be challenged - UCONN passes the ball VERY well.
I'm not sure how I'm mixing metaphores. If we're getting technical here I think the only metaphor I used was comparing UConn's 2023-2024 run to a wagon.
With that said, I disagree with you that UConn's losses have more/less relevance than our loss to Michigan. One of the best evaluators for college basketball is the analysis of the quality of wins and losses (especially recently), in which case UConn this year has much lower quality losses than we do, as well as years prior when they were at their peak. Sure, we lost to Michigan at home, but it's pretty easy to argue statistically that losing to Michigan at home is a better loss than a road or neutral loss to St. John's (or Marquette, or Creighton).
The point I'm making is 17-1 is a nice stat but doesn't really provide the full context of how good UConn was in 2023 and 2024 compared to this year. Yes, I agree 17-1 comes from top-level coaching, but it also comes from having top-level talent.
I don't know what you're talking about with your reference to the eye test.
Your approach to calculating the probability of UConn going 17-1 in tournament games is wrong. This makes sense if we were randomly flipping a coin but the same math doesn't apply here when you're calculating the odds of a team going 17-1 when they're favored in 16 of those 18 games. What you're arguing is akin to the Wagner Principle
I'm not one to judge anyone and I don't really like being overly argumentative with anyone on this site or online in general, but the way you've responded here is a bit overly (unnecessarily) complicated. Frankly I'm not sure what you're trying to prove or argue other than the fact that you're a quant.
CrazedUIFan
UI Fan in QC Land
I am not sure if this was posted
foby
- Bonnaroo Land
Amazing. Everyone should watch this!
He must have had a great upbringing to seem as well-grounded and calm as he is. He’s just had a first year of College Ball like maybe no other in history... he’s shining on the big public stage right now in front of the whole World... he seems to love being in pressure situations... and yet he is team-oriented.
A lot of guys would not handle all this like he seems to be. What a refreshing thing to see and that he’s doing this in Orange and Blue just adds to the joy.
Some guys try hard to ‘Get There’. And other guys are just born with it. That isn't to say it comes easy for him with no effort. It just means that he's been blessed and he knows that. He is so comfortable in himself.
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