Pregame: Illinois vs UConn, Saturday, April 4th, 5:09pm CT, TBS

[steveinspringfield]

Over the years I've given Brad as much grief as anyone. I've probably even said he'd never get the Illini to a Final Four. Now that he has, I won't say a word regardless of the outcome of Saturday's game. Sure, I hope they get to the Championship game on Monday, but I won't complain if they don't.

I do hope they put crybaby Dan Hurley in a place where he belongs. He's worse than Izzo.

 

[RabidDawgClassic]

This is all I have to say

Krush… take notes.

 

[WizardBill]

Knocking on wood but we are so so overdue for a hot night from 3.

Sounds like Harry Carey explaining why a Cubs hitter should get a hit. After a while, if you are batting .235 you are not that good. Maybe we are not that good and need to win a different way.

 

[IlliniCaboose]

It’s a good thing stadiums have the big board to watch the game.

Unless the horn won't stop going off so they need to shut the jumbotron off for the last 28 minutes of the game.
Tickets for the nosebleeds for the final 4 are going for like $600. I can't express how mad I'd be if I was unable to watch the main scoreboard since the court would be like 500 miles away.

 

[mysterio2525]

I can’t be the only one on here that isn’t even questioning whether we win this game or not, right?

We’re the better team. Our guys are as connected and together than any Illini team I can think of.

We’re playing on Monday night.

that's the difference between now and November. I had no clue what to expect back then. this team has been tested. we can win a shootout or a brawl. let's use our length to rebound better this time and we win!

 

[WizardBill]

Indeed...

...and did not return in the half (ILL 43-32 at half).

...and subbed out at 14:14 (UConn 52-39).

How did we lose points?

 

[Illini4Christ]

Is it me or is Keaton the face of this tournament now?

I see his image everywhere.

Keaton is the only projected lottery pick player remaining in the Final Four.

 

[sacraig]

Guilty…
Ordered gear before I even walked to the other room to see the wife.
She’s a huge Michigan fan. Our daughter is split at age 6.
Of course I had to get her two shirts…

I thought doctors tested for Michigan fandom in utero now.

 

[wc_illini]

I understand what you are saying and over the years I have heard the emotional argument repeatedly. But that's not correct either. A more simple way of saying this is you cannot predict Missouri beating either Florida or Nebraska. There is no data to create a mathematical paradigm to make that prediction. Same with High Point vs. Wisconsin or the for that matter UCLA or Wisconsin beating Illinois (twice). There are no "systems" that can accurately predict winners for the top 100 teams consistently at a rate better than 50-55%.

For any type of stochastic probability to have value it must run true a minimum of 80% of the time. There are no college basketball algorythms that come close to that number. Argue all you want, those are the facts not a guess. Why do you think sports betting is one of the fastest growing revenue generators in the entertainment industry? A: Because its great cashflow with little capital investment. There are no systems that can come close to 60% let alone 80% accuracy. Now if you are taking bets on 1,500 - 2,000 games a year, its easy money.

I understand the sentiment and emotion about "it can't be a coin flip" and have been listening to it for years. I have been an Illinois fan for 60 years. Math is math, data is data. The game of basketball certianly has changed since Lew Alcindor and UCLA beat us by 38 at Chicago Stadium (my first game) right after the '67 blizzard. But mathematics have not change. However, the ability to calculate stochastic probability and store data has changed significantly more than college hoop or mathematical approach.

If you're not going to acknowledge the publicly available analyses showing general agreement between computer ranking systems and betting lines (i.e. the prediction tracker site and Mark Moog's site), there isn't really much else to discuss, and I'm not even sure what point you're trying to make anymore as it relates to the UConn game.

Happy to be an Illinois fan alongside you nonetheless

 

[PepeSilvia]

It’s a good thing stadiums have the big board to watch the game.

I took this picture from the Duke vs Wisconsin national championship game where I got in for 80 bucks.

Bring some binoculars or youre better off watching on the closest screen.

It's a cool experience regardless of the fact that basketball shouldn't be played in NFL stadiums and the players look like ants.

My recommendation would be to avoid the corners as much as possible.

Hinkle fieldhouse would be my dream national championship location but tickets would cost 50k.

 

[grue2]

Every probability calculation starts as equal chance until you add weights. It will just so happen that UConn and Illinois weighting will mostly cancel each other out.

Will there be a quiz on this?

I'd give odds on it.

 

[dwpittman]

Or a full outvfight happens during Mich/AZ game and everyone gets suspended for the next game.

I'm okay with the opponent being at full strength. All I ask for is even officiating.

 

[fuggles]

I hear you and clearly understand your perspective:

(1) Quantitatively speaking, Kenpom has a slightly negative correlation to outcome. Taking points in Kenpom spread is a 59.3% winner after 5% vig. That is 7 years of data covering over 20,000 NCAA games. and 1-1 in underdog situations has no statistical value.

(2) How UCONN played against St. John's has no more relevance to how we played against Michigan at home. UCONN isn't playing St. John's on Saturday and we aren't playing Michigan on Saturday. Moreover you are mixing metaphores. You either want to use how a team plays and what their statistical average in quantified statistical areas (FG%, Rebounds, etc) or you can do the "eye test." But the two (stats or ranking and eye test) don't mix.

(3) I wasn't making any comparisons of this team to 2024. In fact, I was stating the exact opposite. The entire Illini staff learned from playing in the elite 8. When you look at the team on the floor on Saturday it is a direct reflection to changes made in terms of personel and approach to game management which resulted from the UCONN loss two years ago.

(4) I am professionally what is known as a "quant" and have been for over 44 years let me leave you with this:

Exact Calculation:
Each NCAA tournament game has 2 possible outcomes: win or loss. Over 18 games, there are 2¹⁸ = 262,144 possible win/loss sequences.

• Number of sequences with exactly 17 wins (and 1 loss): There are 18 such sequences (you can lose any one of the 18 games).
• Number of sequences with 18 wins (perfect): 1 sequence.

Probability of exactly 17 wins: 18 / 262,144 ≈ 0.006866% (or about 1 in 14,563).
Probability of 17 or 18 wins: 19 / 262,144 ≈ 0.007248% (or about 1 in 13,797).
Odds against exactly 17 wins: Roughly 14,563 to 1.Odds against 17 or 18 wins: Roughly 13,797 to 1.

Only 2 other teams in the history of NCAA basketball has ever been able to do what UCONN has done in the past 4 years. It took UCLA 5 years to do it. In the 1960's the path to the NCAA tournament was more difficult and virtually all of the teams in the tourney were nationally ranked. Duke's 1990 - 1993 (4 seasons) teams won 18 of 20 and two national titles. Florida won back to back titles but 13 tourney wins in 4 years.

Please do not get me wrong, I am a 60 year Illni fan and have traveled from the corners of the world to watch them play. But to question UCONN's proficency isn't (mathematically speaking) intellectually honest. If we beat them on Saturday, we will have accomplished something.

This is ridiculous. And I won't tell you what my qualifications are.

 

[EmeraldCityIllini]

In the Iowa postgame I said I think Underwood has improved as a coach, and well, this will be the ultimate test. Two years ago, let’s be honest, Hurley completely schooled Underwood schematically. Ultimate shot at redemption for Brad here.

I mean. That UConn team blitzed everyone. It’s one of the best college teams in recent memory. And we shot 6-23 from 3.

Ya know, sometimes results aren’t always about adjustments, schemes, x and o’s. Sometimes one team is just better

 

[Iamgroot]

ESPN Predictor Names Clear Favorite in Illinois vs UConn Final Four Clash

The Illini meet the Huskies in Indianapolis on Saturday with a national championship game berth at stake. Who is the favorite?

www.si.com

 

[blackdog]

They practice at 11am eastern. Gates open at 10am. Not certain if all gates will be open or only some.

Underrated factor is getting adjusted to shooting sightlines playing in a football stadium. Definitely can have an impact on depth perception. Good thing this team has learned how to grind when the shots aren't falling from 3

 

[FeelYourPaign]

What are people's thoughts / experiences on tickets for Monday's game? Better to buy before the Saturday games or after?

In my limited experience, best is to be there as the Saturday games let out. Some of the losers will be going home and taking a big hit on tickets. Since resale above face is legal in Indy, resellers will be all over these guys as well.

 

[Roundball Sage]

College basketball is unique because a trip to the Final Four is a total championship. These Illini are beloved and get to hang a banner and be remembered fondly forever.

Some in the media are calling Illinois the Cinderella team. I don’t know how Coach would feel about that.

I guess it just means that National media are so used to seeing the other three nameplates left all the time at Season’s end and they’re not so used to seeing Our Beloveds.

And on that last thought... the Illini should certainly DO SOMETHING about that in the future to change that kind of thinking!

 

[rdk573]

Now we're talking...LOL

The cheap seats...

 

[Homecoming 2019]

Krush… take notes.

Eh, every fan section in high school did this 15 years ago. Let's stick to creating our own things.

 

[hodgesonfire]

At this point each game comes down to desire and focus. There is no tricky game plan we haven’t seen. There is no impossible match up we can’t overcome. There is no excuse. We have the players and the coaches.

Execute for 40 minutes to achieve glory.

Execute for 80 minutes to become legends.

 

[joeybcrazy13]

Ain't about Turkey no more!!! Feed my dawgs gunpowder and water all week and let's do the damn thing!!!!! ILL destiny awaits no man

 

[sacraig]

College basketball is unique because a trip to the Final Four is a total championship. These Illini are beloved and get to hang a banner and be remembered fondly forever. But it's different than other sports because the championship joy doesn't dissipate quickly. It lasts longer than a World Series championship or a Super Bowl championship because we get a whole week to revel in the joy and then we still get to go play for ANOTHER weekend and possibly ANOTHER championship.

I-L-L.

Baseball is the same way. If you win the NLCS or ALCS, you hamgva pennant.

 

[Chad Fleck]

Some in the media are calling Illinois the Cinderella team. I don’t know how Coach would feel about that.

I guess it just means that National media are so used to seeing the other three nameplates left all the time at Season’s end and they’re not so used to seeing Our Beloveds.

And on that last thought... the Illini should certainly DO SOMETHING about that in the future to change that kind of thinking!

They've got the biggest number next to their name. That's all.

 

[RichardKeenesCousin]

Mirk my words