Pregame: Illinois vs UConn, Saturday, April 4th, 5:09pm CT, TBS

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#701      
PlayDeeBrownNote
The Big Lebowski Reaction GIF

Is it Saturday at 5pm yet?
 
#705      
gary?
UConn has been arguably the best basketball program of my lifetime (born in March of 89 and my dad missed the final 4 because of me). But I can think of very few coaches easier to dislike than Hurley.
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is it arguable? 6 titles since then. if you were alive for ucla’s ridiculous run, i think that’s the only one that could top it.
 
#706      
Bbuck21
The only way that this logic makes mathematical sense is that you assume all teams rosters are balanced and of equal strength year in and out. It is laughable to assume that the 16 seed has the same chance of winning the national championship as a 1 seed, which is essentially what you are arguing. The hard data states otherwise. Likewise, you are suggesting that the UCONN super team of 2023-2024 only had a .5^6 or 1.6% chance of winning the championship. You are the only person I have ever heard make this argument.

Of course, there is no computer model that will prove to ever be overly accurate. However, to state as a matter of fact that one individual game as a coin flip will be more accurate than advanced metrics is something that no data scientist will ever agree to.

However, you are correct about Saturday. It will be a near virtual coin flip.
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Anybody heard the term "Spinning your wheels"?
 
#707      
Bbuck21
RowdyFromRow22 said:
Guilty…
Ordered gear before I even walked to the other room to see the wife.
She’s a huge Michigan fan. Our daughter is split at age 6.
Of course I had to get her two shirts…
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I am being to question the decision making acumen of some people on this board. Or, I admire their willingness to admit their missteps. I guess we were all young and impulsive. Credit for focusing on your offspring.
 
#708      
wc_illini
OrangeAndBlueBlooded said:
Thanks for putting this together. One thing to point out though, the scores in the first two paragraphs are reversed. We never had a lead in that game.

apnews.com

No. 5 UConn beats No. 13 Illinois 74-61

Solo Ball scored 15 points and fifth-ranked UConn never trailed in beating No. 13 Illinois 74-61 on Friday at Madison Square Garden.
apnews.com apnews.com
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Shoot, of course. The fightingillini.com play-by-play for that game has the score columns swapped. Or am I missing something?

Men's Basketball vs UConn on 11/28/2025 - Box Score - University of Illinois Athletics

The official box score of Men's Basketball vs UConn on 11/28/2025
fightingillini.com fightingillini.com
 
#714      
lstewart53x3
Tournament only offensive and defensive rankings according to Torvik:

Arizona: 6 / 3
Michigan: 2 / 23
Illinois: 5 / 10
UConn: 19 / 19

UConn is very fortunate to be in the Final Four with those metrics.

Overall rankings using tournament only games:

1 Arizona
4 Illinois
5 Michigan
14 UConn
 
#716      
AirTran
Tournament only offensive and defensive rankings according to Torvik:

Arizona: 6 / 3
Michigan: 2 / 23
Illinois: 5 / 10
UConn: 19 / 19

UConn is very fortunate to be in the Final Four with those metrics.

Overall rankings using tournament only games:

1 Arizona
4 Illinois
5 Michigan
14 UConn
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I know this might sound silly to some. Metrics (unless you are ranked #1) don't get you to the final 4. This year has been more of an anomaly when it comes to metrics.

Ranking System#1 Team → Final FourSuccess %Top 5 Teams → Final FourSuccess %
KenPom / Torvik10 / 1566.7%29 / 7538.7%
ESPN BPI9 / 1560.0%27 / 7536.0%
Sagarin8 / 1553.3%26 / 7534.7%
NET (official NCAA)9 / 1560.0%25 / 7533.3%
AP Poll (Human)7 / 1546.7%22 / 7529.3%

Key Takeaways:​

  • KenPom / Torvik have been the most accurate major analytics systems at predicting Final Four teams over the past 15 years.
    • Their #1 team reaches the Final Four 66.7% of the time — noticeably better than ESPN BPI (60%) and significantly better than human voters in the AP Poll (46.7%).
  • Even with the best analytics, being ranked in the Top 5 still only gives you roughly a 35–39% chance of making the Final Four. That means over 60% of Top 5 teams get eliminated before the Final Four.
  • KenPom/Torvik’s edge is most visible at the very top (#1 ranking), where they outperform other systems.

Bottom line:Advanced analytics like KenPom and Torvik have a meaningful edge over traditional rankings and even the official NCAA NET, but March Madness remains extremely difficult to predict — even the best systems are wrong more often than they are right when it comes to reaching the Final Four.
 
#718      
Illinir1
Grange Grover said:
Does anyone know if the team is having a send off party like they had when they returned home? And if so what time and where? I’m sure they’re not flying to Indy lol… I’m off tomorrow and would like to go to it since I had to work Sunday when they came home.
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#720      
bavanga3
Dan said:
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First off, condolences for his father's recent passing, an Illinois basketball legend himself and one of the best shooters ever before the 3pt line. Second, Roger is one of the best humans on Earth, I'm so happy to see his success beyond college for the way he can impact these kids' live. The rev, and for me being from Joliet as a young kid, the first person I've ever been star struck by was Roger Powell for how much he did for our city. He gave me so much joy representing our school and state and I'm so proud to see him doing so much positive for kids that don't always have the best influences. Roger Powell Jr is one of our finest Illini ever.
 
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