Illini Basketball

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#178      
lstewart53x3
Where does this put us in the B1G?

Mirk: 1st team all B1G
Andrej: 2nd team all B1G
Vaaks: 3rd team all B1G
Coleman: All Freshman team
 
#182      
sdiver68
21ChampaignSt said:
Thanks! Glad you liked it, @chrisRunner7


I agree. In my scoring system a conference title is worth 8 points and a Final Four is worth 14 (2 points for making the tournament + 2 points for each tournament win to get to the Final Four + 4 point Final Four bonus). So a Final Four is worth as much as a conference reg season and tournament championship combined.

For reference, a perfect season where you go undefeated, win the conference regular season and tournament titles and win the NCAA title would be worth 42 points. So, relative to that, 14 points is a lot - 33% of the overall points vs 19% of the overall points for a conference title.

It's a good discussion though. I value the tournament as much as anyone but my goal here is to judge an entire season.
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Saying the goal is to value an entire season is open to interpretation. I value high ceiling, development, exposure, and end game success (Elite 8+) over easy early wins and consistent but ultimately capped veterans taking down a conference championship and losing in the round of 32.
 
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#183      
AnnoyedWithGarza
Combo said:
I think those picks are a bit optimistic. That said, if Tomi reverts to his 1st year form, he could make some lists. Before last season, many thought he would be our best player.
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Why are those optimistic? If we have a season where we are in the top 3 in the conference standings (I believe we will be fighting for the regular season championship), having 3 players total on the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd teams would almost be required to get there. Coleman is going to have to give us good starter stats, and I don't see the freshmen in the conference being that much stronger than Coleman.

I understand that people need to downplay their expectations because they have been hurt in the past, but some of you go too far in underestimating what our expectations should be. I can see two on the 1st team to be honest (Vaaks and Mirk or Stoj and Mirk).
 
#184      
NarrowJ
AnnoyedWithGarza said:
Why are those optimistic? If we have a season where we are in the top 3 in the conference standings (I believe we will be fighting for the regular season championship), having 3 players total on the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd teams would almost be required to get there. Coleman is going to have to give us good starter stats, and I don't see the freshmen in the conference being that much stronger than Coleman.

I understand that people need to downplay their expectations because they have been hurt in the past, but some of you go too far in underestimating what our expectations should be. I can see two on the 1st team to be honest (Vaaks and Mirk or Stoj and Mirk).
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I think the thought we get 3 guys on the 3 teams is optimistic, but I also don't think those selections necessarily directly translate to a better season. We had 3 on the 21-22 and 23-24 teams but only 1 on last year's F4 team. The frustrating 22-23 team had more guys on All-B1G teams than last year's team.

All-B1G selections:

20-21: 1st Team (2: Kofi, Ayo)
21-22: 1st Team (Kofi), 2nd Team (Trent), 3rd Team (Plummer)
22-23: 1st Team (TSJ), 3rd Team (Mayer)
23-24: 1st Team (2: TSJ, Domask), 3rd Team (Hawkins)
24-25: 3rd Team (KJ)
25-26: 1st Team (Keaton)
 
#185      
21ChampaignSt
sdiver68 said:
Saying the goal is to value an entire season is open to interpretation. I value high ceiling, development, exposure, and end game success (Elite 8+) over easy early wins and consistent but ultimately capped veterans taking down a conference championship and losing in the round of 32.
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I think the 2022 team is a good example.

2025, 2022, and 2021 all had 2nd round exits. To someone only looking at tournament results, all three of these seasons would be viewed as equal or close to equal.

A more extreme example would be to compare a team like the NC St. Final Four team from a few years ago to our 05 team. If you're only evaluating post season or if you're weighting the post season too heavily, you'd look at those two seasons and say that Illinois had a marginally better year.

This is why I wanted to look at it holistically - to tease out the nuances and truly be able to compare seasons and eras to one another.

Also, I already have pretty high value put on the tournament. Here is how I weight everything:

NCAA tourney = ~45%
Reg season championship = ~20%
Conference tourney championship = ~15%
Total wins = ~10%
AP Poll ranking = ~10%

But yeah, I fully understand some people might have the tournament at like 75% or something. Which I appreciate but just don't quite share that view. Especially since if you don't perform well in the regular season, you are highly unlikely to realize that full 75%.
 
#186      
RollChief
Combo said:
I think those picks are a bit optimistic. That said, if Tomi reverts to his 1st year form, he could make some lists. Before last season, many thought he would be our best player.
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Honestly I think the notion of Tomi having a regression last year may be of a hyperbole that reverberated from a few weeks when he was injured and he didn't perform that well, and then inevitably was a target on this board.

Based on most metrics he was a very similar in 2024 and 2025. His Usage was lower (%Poss) because we had a deeper back court that could carry more of the offensive load, and he had a cold streak shooting in the final games of the season that really brought down is 3P%. I honestly thought he was better on defensive this past season than the season prior.

If he takes a similar step athletically (or even half) that BH took between 2024 to 2025 then I could see him being a real problem for all other teams we're going to play.

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#187      
Battle89
RollChief said:
Honestly I think the notion of Tomi having a regression last year may be of a hyperbole that reverberated from a few weeks when he was injured and he didn't perform that well, and then inevitably was a target on this board.

Based on most metrics he was a very similar in 2024 and 2025. His Usage was lower (%Poss) because we had a deeper back court that could carry more of the offensive load, and he had a cold streak shooting in the final games of the season that really brought down is 3P%. I honestly thought he was better on defensive this past season than the season prior.

If he takes a similar step athletically (or even half) that BH took between 2024 to 2025 then I could see him being a real problem for all other teams we're going to play.

View attachment 50086
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There was no regression because neither year had a complete Tomi. He was hurt last year and sick the year before. We need a full year of a full Tomi to reach our full potential.

Sidebar: never realized how many circa-year-2000 new parents liked the name Luke.
 
#188      
Scoregasm
Battle89 said:
There was no regression because neither year had a complete Tomi. He was hurt last year and sick the year before. We need a full year of a full Tomi to reach our full potential.

Sidebar: never realized how many circa-year-2000 new parents liked the name Luke.
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Or some form of Jayden/Jaylen.
 
#189      
hoopsfan47
Combo said:
I think those picks are a bit optimistic. That said, if Tomi reverts to his 1st year form, he could make some lists. Before last season, many thought he would be our best player.
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Was Tomi ever healthy last season? Likely not until the dance when we saw him perfrom quite well from the arc, the rim, and defensively. This is his last season. Speaking from experience, that has a huge motivating effect on a college player.
 
#190      
Combo
hoopsfan47 said:
Was Tomi ever healthy last season? Likely not until the dance when we saw him perfrom quite well from the arc, the rim, and defensively. This is his last season. Speaking from experience, that has a huge motivating effect on a college player.
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Agreed. If he continues where he left off in the tournament, that would be fantastic.
 
#193      
Fly Illini Fly!
SkyysNotFalling said:
Not talked enough on here but Tomi is yet to have a full April-October to be on campus & get fletched without a sickness, tonsil removal or injury. Expect a big bounce back year.
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Yep. After the tonsil stuff he began the season (real season) with an awful knee injury. It's been quite brutal.
 
#195      
OrangeBlue98
21ChampaignSt said:
I think the 2022 team is a good example.

2025, 2022, and 2021 all had 2nd round exits. To someone only looking at tournament results, all three of these seasons would be viewed as equal or close to equal.

A more extreme example would be to compare a team like the NC St. Final Four team from a few years ago to our 05 team. If you're only evaluating post season or if you're weighting the post season too heavily, you'd look at those two seasons and say that Illinois had a marginally better year.

This is why I wanted to look at it holistically - to tease out the nuances and truly be able to compare seasons and eras to one another.

Also, I already have pretty high value put on the tournament. Here is how I weight everything:

NCAA tourney = ~45%
Reg season championship = ~20%
Conference tourney championship = ~15%
Total wins = ~10%
AP Poll ranking = ~10%

But yeah, I fully understand some people might have the tournament at like 75% or something. Which I appreciate but just don't quite share that view. Especially since if you don't perform well in the regular season, you are highly unlikely to realize that full 75%.
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Good analysis. If I had 20 points to allocate, I’m close to you. I’d probably weight it closer to this.

NCAA tournament - 4 points
Top 4 seed - 1 extra point
Sweet 16 - 2 extra points
Final Four - 2 extra points
National championship - 1 extra point
Regular season top 3 - 3 points
Regular season title - 1 extra point
Conference tournament title - 2 points
Wins (75% win percentage) - 2 points
Ranking - 2 points AP top 5, 1 point AP top 10

So to use the NC state example, they would have had 8 points, which is only 40% of the total available.

Illinois this season would have been 16 of 20, which is awfully high. (Even though they were the 4 seed in the BTT, I’m saying a 2nd place tie is top 3 regular season.) But I’m with you-no way am I just looking at an Elite 8 run as an 11 seed and saying that’s a great season.
 
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#197      
ChiefGritty
FightinIllini30 said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/2047484732208767161
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That's Illini big man heritage of course 😬

Grandpa said:
One of the illnesses was Mono. You don't come back full strength after missing only 3 games.
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Fly Illini Fly! said:
Yep. After the tonsil stuff he began the season (real season) with an awful knee injury. It's been quite brutal.
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Yeah if he could stop getting diseases a 12 year old gets that would be terrific.

Him at his 2025 best versus him in the post-mono funk is a huge pivot point in terms of how good the team can be next year.
 
#199      
Altuve27
ChiefGritty said:
Our Q rating in the basketball consciousness in general just went way, way up in the past month.

Wagler being a big star and under the NBA Draft microscope was a big part of that, but the Balkan kids and our orange zombie hordes of fans really connected with people too.

We're going to have the spotlight on us going into a new season to a bigger degree than we have since Dee was here.
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Always enjoy your posts.
 
#200      
Emerson Bigguns
ChiefGritty said:
That's Illini big man heritage of course 😬



Yeah if he could stop getting diseases a 12 year old gets that would be terrific.

Him at his 2025 best versus him in the post-mono funk is a huge pivot point in terms of how good the team can be next year.
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"Tournament Tomi" is a huge reason our defense improved during the run to the Final 4. He was on a mission. This is his last chance to prove he can do it consistently. If he does, he's going to find a spot in the Association.
 
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