I don't ever doubt your input and believe what you're hearing is true, just seems like that'd be a reaalllly silly decision
NBA Draft
Which is why it's very likely not happening.
I'll say this as well-in the crazy scenario where he stays in, the staff has backup options JUST IN CASE.
Again, the expectation on all fronts is that he is back at Illinois in two or less weeks.
Again, the expectation on all fronts is that he is back at Illinois in two or less weeks.
It would be a sound decision money wise and in terms of his development, I just don't think he's going to get that kind of guarantee. It's possible, though.
Not sure it's silly at all, at least financially. To know that we need to know how much he would get to stay for next year.
2nd round exception deals are 3 or 4 years, with the last year being a team option, and AAV between $2-2.5 million. Odds are he's not getting that much to stay next season, but if any of the insiders want to confirm one way or the other I'd be interested to know. Plus if he sticks in the league, he'd get to NBA free agency one year sooner, which is where the real money is at.
The only scenarios where coming back is a better financial decision if he gets that 2nd round exception guarantee are, (1) if we are paying him more than the 2nd round exception he'd get AND coming back won't hurt his draft stock (can't guarantee that) or (2) if if he improves his stock enough to get picked in the first round (could happen, but also not a guarantee by any means and being a year older is always a strike against you as well).
Not an insider but a bet on “Andrej Stojakovic would make more than $2.5 million at Illinois next season” is free money.
They actually don't have current backups, but I am sure they could find some. They are confident he is coming back.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
Two things you're missing are
1. 5-for-5. He doesn't have one more year to earn in college, he's got two.
2. If he accepts that second round deal, his chances of being a first round draft pick drop to zero.
There's no way it's positive net expected career value to stay in the draft as a second rounder, no way.
All-time games played for all of the prospective Illini players after the insiders have made this statement: zero
So that's pretty bad news.
I mean can we just say the quiet part loud here? He's squeezing Illinois for more money and more certainty as to his starring role in the offense. That's what's happening here.
Unless that makes him think he needs to jack up ten threes per game next year.
Andrej is getting a lot more than 2.5 next year.
What's happening is he's getting feedback from NBA teams and you aren't going to openly say "Yeah I am coming back" while that is going on even if that is the case.
The staff is very confident he's back. All I am saying is absolute nightmare scenario they have guys that they can go to, I don't think they will need to.
I am almost certain that in the unlikely possibility we lose Andrej, I'm convinced John Blackwell comes back into play..
In that case, I take it back. Still wouldn't say it'd be "silly" to decide to go though. Probably just way more of a gamble whereas staying another year would be the safer play.
Really? No way?
Let's say Ayo knew he'd go second round and we had the capacity to pay him $5 million to stay (an absurd number). He does, goes 2nd round a year later, and his NBA career proceeds unchanged except that he starts one season later and thus plays one fewer NBA season before he ages out of NBA effectiveness.
He almost certainly would have made more by going earlier and playing one season longer in the NBA, because those end of career salaries are going to be significantly higher than even the absurd $5 million number I came up with for this hypothetical.
All it takes for Drej going 2nd round in this draft to be a better financial decision is for him to get to that 2nd contract. Now, a lot of 2nd Rounders don't, and that's the risk. But to say there's "no way" the decision to go 2nd round this year could come out positive in terms of net salary is just a flat out untrue statement. There is certainly a possibility it could play out that would make it a net positive.
Surely he’s already signed with Duke, no?
Dang decent amount of worry in here. FWIW I’m resting well at night in both what the insiders have shared, as well as all signs pointing to the high high high likelihood that Andrej is coming back. This is just what you say during the combine. He’s got NBA in his blood, he knows what he needs to say to help his chances for next year’s draft and how to learn what he needs to improve upon for this next year at Illinois. We Gucci
If that last statement was even remotely true why wouldnt he have also entered the transfer portal?
If anyone is paying attention other guys (Fears, Able, Blackwell, etc) they have said similar things as well. It's just the name of the game during this week.
Didn’t you go through this exact thing when we were waiting on Drej’s commitment. Full circle moment.
hes getting old and being a senior doesnt help his draft stock theres no guarantee he will make nba if he doesnt improve. maybe he thinks hes a better nba guy and his shot has not developed at all in college.
if an nba 2nd round prospect can get the exception 3-4 yr deal you take it and run. the long term security and hitting fa faster is how you become rich quick.
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What do you expect him to say? He wants to be drafted. Until he gets feedback on where he stacks he can’t make a decision to stay or go.
It absolutely does because right now he isn't a 1st round draft pick and a borderline 2nd round pick where he can improve on that. Stirtz and Yaxel are better off for coming back for their senior year. Being a senior has nothing to do with it. Plenty of seniors get drafted.
And here we go with the 'if' stuff again. With NIL he WILL make more money in college than that if.
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Funny enough, was just thinking about that haha.
What’s your thoughts on Kylan at this point of the process? If the 5 for 5 passes obviously.