What's happening is he's getting feedback from NBA teams and you aren't going to openly say "Yeah I am coming back" while that is going on even if that is the case.
NBA Draft
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The staff is very confident he's back. All I am saying is absolute nightmare scenario they have guys that they can go to, I don't think they will need to.
I am almost certain that in the unlikely possibility we lose Andrej, I'm convinced John Blackwell comes back into play..
In that case, I take it back. Still wouldn't say it'd be "silly" to decide to go though. Probably just way more of a gamble whereas staying another year would be the safer play.
Really? No way?
Let's say Ayo knew he'd go second round and we had the capacity to pay him $5 million to stay (an absurd number). He does, goes 2nd round a year later, and his NBA career proceeds unchanged except that he starts one season later and thus plays one fewer NBA season before he ages out of NBA effectiveness.
He almost certainly would have made more by going earlier and playing one season longer in the NBA, because those end of career salaries are going to be significantly higher than even the absurd $5 million number I came up with for this hypothetical.
All it takes for Drej going 2nd round in this draft to be a better financial decision is for him to get to that 2nd contract. Now, a lot of 2nd Rounders don't, and that's the risk. But to say there's "no way" the decision to go 2nd round this year could come out positive in terms of net salary is just a flat out untrue statement. There is certainly a possibility it could play out that would make it a net positive.
Surely he’s already signed with Duke, no?
Dang decent amount of worry in here. FWIW I’m resting well at night in both what the insiders have shared, as well as all signs pointing to the high high high likelihood that Andrej is coming back. This is just what you say during the combine. He’s got NBA in his blood, he knows what he needs to say to help his chances for next year’s draft and how to learn what he needs to improve upon for this next year at Illinois. We Gucci
If that last statement was even remotely true why wouldnt he have also entered the transfer portal?
If anyone is paying attention other guys (Fears, Able, Blackwell, etc) they have said similar things as well. It's just the name of the game during this week.
Didn’t you go through this exact thing when we were waiting on Drej’s commitment. Full circle moment.
hes getting old and being a senior doesnt help his draft stock theres no guarantee he will make nba if he doesnt improve. maybe he thinks hes a better nba guy and his shot has not developed at all in college.
if an nba 2nd round prospect can get the exception 3-4 yr deal you take it and run. the long term security and hitting fa faster is how you become rich quick.
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What do you expect him to say? He wants to be drafted. Until he gets feedback on where he stacks he can’t make a decision to stay or go.
It absolutely does because right now he isn't a 1st round draft pick and a borderline 2nd round pick where he can improve on that. Stirtz and Yaxel are better off for coming back for their senior year. Being a senior has nothing to do with it. Plenty of seniors get drafted.
And here we go with the 'if' stuff again. With NIL he WILL make more money in college than that if.
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Funny enough, was just thinking about that haha.
What’s your thoughts on Kylan at this point of the process? If the 5 for 5 passes obviously.
He's going pro. They are going to add one more but Kylan and the staff want to move forward.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
But $5 million isn't an absurd number for Andrej, plus he has the extra 5-for-5 year, PLUS the opportunity to play himself into the first round on a team that features him more in a dramatically weaker draft class.
The chances he has an 8-9 figure NBA free agent contract in his future and the chances his draft stock improves in one (or two) years aren't independent variables, they correlate with one another.
Which isn't to say it's not POSSIBLE he loses out in the aggregate by returning to school rather than taking a second round multi-year guarantee, but the median expected value is definitely higher.
If he's optimizing for money, he comes back.
What a second round guarantee would optimize for is career NBA games played, and perhaps just as importantly to him and his family it pushes his chances of Peja and Andrej Stojakovic joining the list of fathers and sons to play in the NBA to 100%.
It's not a secret the NBA has been the narrow-minded goal of Andrej and his family, which is true of every player but especially in his case with the sophistication of what that means and how to get there. This is a guy who transferred from one arch rival to another, the Stojakovic's are not romantic people about college basketball. It's about what's best for Andrej, and Andrej did not get what he came for last year because of Wagler.
It's all understandable. But the reality is we're his best offer, and they'll be making a mistake not to take it.
One of my favorite stories about this scene is that the actor who plays Jimmy said he was so focused on making every shot that he didn't even listen to what Gene Hackman was saying. When they did the first take, he made 12 consecutive shots.
I agree with a lot of what you're saying. But optimizing for money isn't the same as taking the highest expected value (and certainly not the highest median). There's diminishing marginal utility, and the risk of serious injury or regression means returning has a much lower floor than a guaranteed 2-3 year contract, and might mean he never realizes his dream of being in the NBA.
Plus there are non-monetary considerations. He seems to enjoy the team, but does he enjoy the grind of classes? Does he think he could improve more if he could focus on bball?
Is this really true for Yaxel?
If Yaxel stays in he was probably getting picked in the 20s. Let's say #25 for the sake of argument. That pick got 4 yrs/$15 million. He's currently around the tail end of the lottery in mock drafts, at like #14. That pick got 4 yrs/$23 million in last year's draft. I've seen reports that Yaxel got $3 million to play for Michigan. So essentially over a 5-year span staying would net him $26 million.
If he'd stayed in the draft and gotten that $4yr/$15 million deal in the 5th year of that same time span he'd be hitting free agency before that 5th year. If he gets even $12 million for that year on the FA market, he's coming out ahead in the scenario where he went a year earlier. Look at NBA salaries. It's not hard to imagine him getting double that if he does well. Maybe even triple that.
I think people overvalue the difference between getting drafted higher vs getting an extra year of an NBA career. There's a certain point where improving draft stock makes sense finanically, but going from late first round to late lottery is not that point.
This is exactly it. Fears/Blackwell/other 2nd rounders have essentially zero reason to jump to the nba this year.
Anyone scared needs to think of it this way: they are interviewing for a job. Why would anyone come out and say “I’m just here for the combine experience”. Of course they’re gonna say they are ten toes in on the NBA. I think the mere fact Andrej mentioned coming back as a possibility is all you need to know.
When watching that clip, it seemed to me that Andrej had a couple tells that indicated he was returning, JMHO. He kinda gave it away that he was saying what he needed to say.
NBA Draft Combine: Predicting stay-or-go decisions for Milan Momcilovic, Malachi Moreno, other draft hopefuls
Following player interviews at the NBA Draft Combine in Chicago, here is insight on and predictions for each major stay-or-go decision.
www.cbssports.com
"I think I'm in a special situation where my option to go back to school is one of a kind," Stojakovic said, via Illini Inquirer's Jeremy Werner. "Not many people in this Combine have the option to go back to a Final Four team with most of the guys returning. … I'm very thankful for the situation I'm in because going back to school is also a really, really good option for me."
The article goes on to predict Andrej comes back. One data point, but a good one.
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ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
Not when he can make $10 million in college over his next two seasons with 5-for-5. That dramatically changes the financial incentives.
For one thing I think he's jumped more than 25 to 14. Saw him at 10 in CBS' latest mock. And there was second round risk last year.
For two, the rookie scale escalates every year, so even at the same pick you get a little bit more delaying a year. The same mechanics apply to free agency. (All of this is more or less just accounting for inflation of course, but that door leads toward overcomplicating this).
For three, hitting free agency a year later offers the opportunity to be a more proven player when you get there. The reason Ayo is on a wildly team-friendly 3 yr/21M deal is because he hit RFA after his second season before he took a leap in his third season.
For four, Yaxel is now a much more marketable player which has endorsement benefits. That wasn't a guarantee returning to school, but it was a possibility that being a lightly-used Pelican did not offer.
The basic math of "the last year of an NBA career is typically worth more than the first" isn't wrong. Nor is the fact of free agency being the real payday that you need to serve out your rookie deal to access whenever you enter. But you're drawing a lot of suppositions from there that don't really follow.
Is @FI_890526 an alien that only I can see?
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