NBA Draft

[the juiceman cometh]

Not when he can make $10 million in college over his next two seasons with 5-for-5. That dramatically changes the financial incentives.

Can you provide any source for Andrej making $5 million a year to play for us?

For one thing I think he's jumped more than 25 to 14. Saw him at 10 in CBS' latest mock. And there was second round risk last year.

Last mock before he withdrew from the draft had him at #26, and his stock was rising. And reading the mocks you can see that scouts were aware he was probably not going to stay in the draft and that was suppressing his rise a bit. If he'd been all-in he might have had a rise similar to Cedric Coward. I actually thought I was being conservative when I put him at #25.

As for current projection, #10 pick will get somewhere between $3-4 million more that #14 over that initial 4 year deal. So fine, add that to the equation. Still plenty of potential to be easily eclipsed by the AAV on that second contract. Immanuel Quickley went #25 (and he did have eligibility to come back) and his second deal was $162.5 million/5 (AAV = $32.5 million).

If you look at the post I was responding to, it was that Yaxel made the right financial decision staying in college another year. I don't think that's clear.

I'm not saying that Yaxel necessarily made the wrong decision. I'm saying that we can't assume he made the right decision just because he has indeed improved his draft stock. That question is entirely dependent on whether he is a good NBA player or not. For a good NBA player who can earn a good NBA contract, an extra year in the NBA will always be more lucrative than an extra year in college. For a guy who doesn't have what it takes, that first contract matters a great deal more so draft position is more important. I actually think Yaxel will be a good NBA player (not a superstar, but I think he'll stick around). So I think more likely than not, from a purely financial perspective, getting to the NBA earlier would have earned him more over the course of his career.

For two, the rookie scale escalates every year, so even at the same pick you get a little bit more delaying a year. The same mechanics apply to free agency. (All of this is more or less just accounting for inflation of course, but that door leads toward overcomplicating this).

For three, hitting free agency a year later offers the opportunity to be a more proven player when you get there. The reason Ayo is on a wildly team-friendly 3 yr/21M deal is because h

Well yeah, NBA salaries go up every year. Should Cooper Flagg have come back so he could get in on the sweet 2026 rookie pay scale instead of the 2025 scale? At a certain point, you're going to age out of being an NBA player. Theoretically, staying in college an extra year gets you one less year of an NBA career. For a good NBA player (solid rotation player) the only years where you might make less in the NBA than in college are the rookie contract years. And you're going to be on a rookie deal at some point, whether you stay an extra year or not. Going to the NBA early means, potentially, an extra year of a negotiated, non-rookie scale, contract.

Hitting free agency later also affords the opportunity to be a year older, which may hurt your value since teams will also want to project out, and pay for, potential. Also, some players actually peak younger than others and there's no way to know for sure. How much more money would Tyreke Evans have made if he could have negotiated a deal after his rookie season? He'd have probably double his career earnings. The extra time did not prove valuable for him.

For four, Yaxel is now a much more marketable player which has endorsement benefits. That wasn't a guarantee returning to school, but it was a possibility that being a lightly-used Pelican did not offer.

The basic math of "the last year of an NBA career is typically worth more than the first" isn't wrong. Nor is the fact of free agency being the real payday that you need to serve out your rookie deal to access whenever you enter. But you're drawing a lot of suppositions from there that don't really follow.

Am I? The post I was responding to made the supposition that Yaxel had clearly made the right financial decision staying in college. In response I used actual numbers from actual contracts to make the opposite. In response you've speculated that he would have ended up as a Pelican in last year's draft (btw Pelicans only had one pick at #7 so how do you end up there?), his usage as a rookie, and on endorsements that don't currently exist as far as I can tell.

By the way, the guy the Pelicans drafted in 2024 at #21 started 67 games his rookie year, averaging almost 27 minutes a game. That's not bad!

 

[RabidDawgClassic]

Stojakovic's NBA connections could help him get a guarantee of a second round exception deal, from what I heard earlier today.

My stance has not changed, Andrej Stojakovic is expected back on all fronts.

 

[wpr]

Sentiment around Andrej has not changed outside of fan angst.

The fan angst hasn't changed either.

 

[ChiefGritty]

Can you provide any source for Andrej making $5 million a year to play for us?

I think someone said more like $4M? But that's an escalation over $2.5M last year. The salaries in college are inflating a lot faster than in the NBA.

Last mock before he withdrew from the draft had him at #26, and his stock was rising. And reading the mocks you can see that scouts were aware he was probably not going to stay in the draft and that was suppressing his rise a bit. If he'd been all-in he might have had a rise similar to Cedric Coward. I actually thought I was being conservative when I put him at #25.

Totally possible. But wouldn't you tend to think that if that was the guidance he was getting from his agent that he would have stayed in the draft?

I very much doubt Coward just got lucky betting on himself. These guys get a lot of feedback mock draft writers don't know about.

If you look at the post I was responding to, it was that Yaxel made the right financial decision staying in college another year. I don't think that's clear.

It's not clear in the sense of being a 100% chance that he ends up with greater career earnings from returning to school. There are many different permutations under which he would lose out over the long haul.

But he earned more last year than he would have as the 25th pick, and he will earn more guaranteed in each of the next two years as well. By a pretty hefty margin if he approaches the top 10.

The certainty and immediacy of those benefits weigh higher in a calculation of net expected value than hypotheticals about how free agency timing maps to the arc of his career.

For a good NBA player who can earn a good NBA contract, an extra year in the NBA will always be more lucrative than an extra year in college.

Not necessarily. The veteran minimum isn't very much. Take Seth Curry for instance, who once signed a 4 year 32 million deal back in 2019 when that was a solid mid-level deal who played for $2.7M this year. A lot of guys end their careers on smaller deals than they had in their prime. Tim Hardaway Jr, another example.

there's no way to know for sure.

We agree on this. I feel I am calculating for that uncertainty in a more robust way.

In response I used actual numbers from actual contracts to make the opposite. In response you've speculated

This is what I mean. It is inherently speculation, the trick is finding what the average of that wide range of possible outcomes nets out to.

It's weighing what you showed, which is that Yaxel will make more money last year, next year, and the year thereafter guaranteed, against the hypothetical of earlier access to free agency.

 

[IlliDan]

Does Kylan Boswell appear heavier now than end of season? He weighed in at 226 at the combine which seemed high.Watching him during the combine scrimmage he appeared to struggle with the quickness of other guards.Wondering if it would help his mobility playing at 215 instead?

 

[jamarvelous31]

The fan angst hasn't changed either.

Illinois could've won the championship last year, returned the entire roster and there would still be fan angst.

We're an angsty bunch.

 

[Emerson Bigguns]

I think someone said more like $4M? But that's an escalation over $2.5M last year. The salaries in college are inflating a lot faster than in the NBA.


Totally possible. But wouldn't you tend to think that if that was the guidance he was getting from his agent that he would have stayed in the draft?

I very much doubt Coward just got lucky betting on himself. These guys get a lot of feedback mock draft writers don't know about.


It's not clear in the sense of being a 100% chance that he ends up with greater career earnings from returning to school. There are many different permutations under which he would lose out over the long haul.

But he earned more last year than he would have as the 25th pick, and he will earn more guaranteed in each of the next two years as well. By a pretty hefty margin if he approaches the top 10.

The certainty and immediacy of those benefits weigh higher in a calculation of net expected value than hypotheticals about how free agency timing maps to the arc of his career.


Not necessarily. The veteran minimum isn't very much. Take Seth Curry for instance, who once signed a 4 year 32 million deal back in 2019 when that was a solid mid-level deal who played for $2.7M this year. A lot of guys end their careers on smaller deals than they had in their prime. Tim Hardaway Jr, another example.


We agree on this. I feel I am calculating for that uncertainty in a more robust way.


This is what I mean. It is inherently speculation, the trick is finding what the average of that wide range of possible outcomes nets out to.

It's weighing what you showed, which is that Yaxel will make more money last year, next year, and the year thereafter guaranteed, against the hypothetical of earlier access to free agency.

In regard to the Yaxel conversation, he also got to play ball in a top notch environment that was packed every night, win a National title, and become a legend in University of Michigan sports history. He will be remembered for a very long time in Ann Arbor, which will also present him opportunities for easy money down the road, long after he is done playing.
If we are talking straight salary, perhaps there is an argument on whether he made the right decision, but legacy matters to players, and fans don't forget. There is a zero% chance he will ever regret opting to spend last year at Michigan.

 

[ChiefGritty]

In regard to the Yaxel conversation, he also got to play ball in a top notch environment that was packed every night, win a National title, and become a legend in University of Michigan sports history. He will be remembered for a very long time in Ann Arbor, which will also present him opportunities for easy money down the road, long after he is done playing.
If we are talking straight salary, perhaps there is an argument on whether he made the right decision, but legacy matters to players, and fans don't forget. There is a zero% chance he will ever regret opting to spend last year at Michigan.

Well and when he turned down a first round selection last year, that was taking a huge risk. In being a first rounder he had the opportunity for a team to commit to his development over the long term, and he chose one year of college basketball instead, during which his stock could have slipped to where he'd never get that opportunity again.

So he won the gamble he made by pushing his chips in and returning, I guess that's the way I would think of it.

 

[thrillini]

Well and when he turned down a first round selection last year, that was taking a huge risk. In being a first rounder he had the opportunity for a team to commit to his development over the long term, and he chose one year of college basketball instead, during which his stock could have slipped to where he'd never get that opportunity again.

So he won the gamble he made by pushing his chips in and returning, I guess that's the way I would think of it.

 

[the juiceman cometh]

In regard to the Yaxel conversation, he also got to play ball in a top notch environment that was packed every night, win a National title, and become a legend in University of Michigan sports history. He will be remembered for a very long time in Ann Arbor, which will also present him opportunities for easy money down the road, long after he is done playing.
If we are talking straight salary, perhaps there is an argument on whether he made the right decision, but legacy matters to players, and fans don't forget. There is a zero% chance he will ever regret opting to spend last year at Michigan.

Absolutely there are non-financial reasons that may easily outweigh financial concerns, on either side of the equation. Those are personal and hard to quantify. I think in a lot of instances, like the Yaxel one, those non-financial considerations do carry the day.

Knowing that, it's really a fool's errand to speculate as to whether the decision is good or not in anything other than purely financial terms. I agree with you that in Yaxel's case, he will almost certainly never regret coming back to college. To consider a less clear case, it's easy to argue that Kofi made a mistake going pro when he did, and on the financials it's hard not to agree. But he may well never regret that decision, for reasons we will never know or understand.

 

[FI_890526]

Nah, we agree that Stojakovic returning is the most likely scenario.

 

[ptgrd23]

Andrej tested poorly in 3 point shooting and sprint/agility. He is a great jumper.

That is the beauty of going thru the process. He got learn about his weaknesses so he can improve

JMO - work on this summer and next season

- tighter handle, gets stripped too much when he drives in traffic. In NBA he will be a 2G.
- recognize and pass quickly out of double team to open man
- improve his form on 3 pointers
- move more when without the ball. he should be getting more rebounds
- get quicker and more agile

 

[Mobi]

Well and when he turned down a first round selection last year, that was taking a huge risk. In being a first rounder he had the opportunity for a team to commit to his development over the long term, and he chose one year of college basketball instead, during which his stock could have slipped to where he'd never get that opportunity again.

So he won the gamble he made by pushing his chips in and returning, I guess that's the way I would think of it.

I remember Yaxel was a "potential" late 1st rounder with real chances of falling to the 2nd round, aka, Ayo situation. Correct me if I am wrong.

 

[jamarvelous31]

Andrej tested poorly in 3 point shooting and sprint/agility. He is a great jumper.

That is the beauty of going thru the process. He got learn about his weaknesses so he can improve

JMO - work on this summer and next season

- tighter handle, gets stripped too much when he drives in traffic. In NBA he will be a 2G.
- recognize and pass quickly out of double team to open man
- improve his form on 3 pointers
- move more when without the ball. he should be getting more rebounds
- get quicker and more agile

It's helpful to hear it from someone not employed by Brad and not worried about wooing you.

I'd add straight line speed to it as well 59th of 71 in the 3/4 court sprint ...given how good he is at finishing it's wild that he didn't have more fast break points and that could be why.

 

[FightinIllini30]

Nah, we agree that Stojakovic returning is the most likely scenario.

I appreciate the additional insight either way

 

[Fly Illini Fly!]

Winner:

https://twitter.com/x/status/2054701256900256211

 

[Fly Illini Fly!]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2055051152450793729

 

[Fly Illini Fly!]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2055035848643494320

 

[PleaseMakeABowlGame]

My question for the “Andrej is probably gone” folks is that Michigan, Michigan State, Florida, etc all have star players in the exact same situation. Why isn’t there anybody claiming Jeremy Fears, for example, is gonna be leaving?

 

[LvilleILL1]

My question for the “Andrej is probably gone” folks is that Michigan, Michigan State, Florida, etc all have star players in the exact same situation. Why isn’t there anybody claiming Jeremy Fears, for example, is gonna be leaving?

Their fans are doing the same thing. It's just typical fan angst.