Illinois Hoops Recruiting Thread

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#801      
Emerson Bigguns
PleaseMakeABowlGame said:
Well, 9th man’s value doesn’t quite have to do with a positional need, but more-so to add a body who, if thrown into a b10 game, won’t be a liability.

Here’s why the #9thman is important.

First off, as much as we love setting 200min as the limit for predicting players’ minutes… truth is it basically never turns out that way.

Here’s our total minutes played per game over the past 3 seasons among rotational players (what I’m labeling as “rotational” is basically having appeared in most games that season).

2024:

View attachment 50364

= 203.9 minutes total

2025:

View attachment 50365

= 206.4 minutes total

2026:

View attachment 50366

= 204.4 minutes total

So, let’s just say as a baseline it’ll be 204 available to distribute this season. My approximate guess at where things stand with the top 8:

Andrej - 32
David - 31
Vaaks - 30
Coleman - 27
Tomi - 27
Z - 18
Jake - 18
Morillo - 15

= 198

That leaves you with about 6 minutes left for the 9th man. As it stands, Brown or Zens would be the beneficiary of those minutes.
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The mpg stat is flawed, if you get. DNP, it doesn’t affect your MPG average, which leads to totals>actual minutes per game. (200)
If you look at aggregate minutes, it’s noisy because guys who wouldn’t get minutes in competitive games can get significant run in blowouts.
Occasionally, there are over 200 minutes a game, (OT) but in those kinds of games the 9th man probably isn’t playing barring injury or significant foul trouble. Even then, 6-8 are going to just play more.
When considering the 9th man, the main utility is mitigating the impact of a long term injury. The role of “injury mitigation specialist” is a tough sell.
 
#802      
NarrowJ
Dinger said:
"anything remotely noteworthy in the tournament"
Several of them did just fine throughout the year and lost in the crapshoot that is the tournament
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These teams were ranked in the top 10

I'd expect some tournament success since that's what people claim to care about most (we see constant argumentation on here that regular season success really doesn't matter a whole lot... I disagree with that, as it seems you do as well, but that viewpoint is held by a large number of folks).
 
#805      
AirNeazy
Any concerns with the new potential Eligibility rules about our Euro guys? (Thanks Will Wade)
 
#806      
RabidDawgClassic
AirNeazy said:
Any concerns with the new potential Eligibility rules about our Euro guys? (Thanks Will Wade)
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I wouldn’t think so, although admittedly, there is a portion of the Venn Diagram where there’s some intersection. Wade’s case will mostly hinge on the eligibility of players who’ve gone through the NBA draft and/or signed an NBA contract. That applies to none of our guys.

Having said that, I feel Wade and LSU may have a better than decent chance at winning any lawsuit. The amateur vs professional argument has already been blown up with the inclusion of former international pros. A good lawyer could argue both that there’s no distinct difference between Euro pros and NBA pros and that denying NBA pros a return to college could be considered restraint of trade. Of course, this would blow up college athletics as we know it, but that’s been the trend for quite a while now anyway.
 
#807      
jamarvelous31
PleaseMakeABowlGame said:
Well, 9th man’s value doesn’t quite have to do with a positional need, but more-so to add a body who, if thrown into a b10 game, won’t be a liability.

Here’s why the #9thman is important.

First off, as much as we love setting 200min as the limit for predicting players’ minutes… truth is it basically never turns out that way.

Here’s our total minutes played per game over the past 3 seasons among rotational players (what I’m labeling as “rotational” is basically having appeared in most games that season).

2024:

View attachment 50364

= 203.9 minutes total

2025:

View attachment 50365

= 206.4 minutes total

2026:

View attachment 50366

= 204.4 minutes total

So, let’s just say as a baseline it’ll be 204 available to distribute this season. My approximate guess at where things stand with the top 8:

Andrej - 32
David - 31
Vaaks - 30
Coleman - 27
Tomi - 27
Z - 18
Jake - 18
Morillo - 15

= 198

That leaves you with about 6 minutes left for the 9th man. As it stands, Brown or Zens would be the beneficiary of those minutes.
Click to expand...
It's telling that our past 3 top 3 conference finishes (25,23&21) our 9th man has averaged 3.8 mpg in conference games (last year was 1.6!)

It feels like a silly argument driven by folks being bored.

1779470323267.png
 
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#811      
AirNeazy
RabidDawgClassic said:
I wouldn’t think so, although admittedly, there is a portion of the Venn Diagram where there’s some intersection. Wade’s case will mostly hinge on the eligibility of players who’ve gone through the NBA draft and/or signed an NBA contract. That applies to none of our guys.

Having said that, I feel Wade and LSU may have a better than decent chance at winning any lawsuit. The amateur vs professional argument has already been blown up with the inclusion of former international pros. A good lawyer could argue both that there’s no distinct difference between Euro pros and NBA pros and that denying NBA pros a return to college could be considered restraint of trade. Of course, this would blow up college athletics as we know it, but that’s been the trend for quite a while now anyway.
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Makes sense, I just saw the news today about the new potential eligibility requirements stating that you can't have ever accepted more than a 'minimal' amount of money to pay in a pro league and how it cast some doubt onto players in the grey area like Dame Sarr (which made me think of our guys)
 
#812      
ptgrd23
Houston claim to fame

2019 sweet 16
2021 final four
2022 elite 8
2023 sweet 16
2024 sweet 16
2025 championship game
2026 sweet 16

so for past 7 years their floor has been sweet 16
Add in 1 elite 8, 1 final four and 1 championship game

In same time period Illinois

2019 missed
2021 2nd round
2022 2nd round
2023 first round
2024 elite 8
2025 2nd round
2026 final four

Our floor is 2nd round, win on Saturdays and our floor is sweet 16 like Houston
 
#813      
OB positive
PleaseMakeABowlGame said:
Well, 9th man’s value doesn’t quite have to do with a positional need, but more-so to add a body who, if thrown into a b10 game, won’t be a liability.

Here’s why the #9thman is important.

First off, as much as we love setting 200min as the limit for predicting players’ minutes… truth is it basically never turns out that way.

Here’s our total minutes played per game over the past 3 seasons among rotational players (what I’m labeling as “rotational” is basically having appeared in most games that season).

2024:

View attachment 50364

= 203.9 minutes total

2025:

View attachment 50365

= 206.4 minutes total

2026:

View attachment 50366

= 204.4 minutes total

So, let’s just say as a baseline it’ll be 204 available to distribute this season. My approximate guess at where things stand with the top 8:

Andrej - 32
David - 31
Vaaks - 30
Coleman - 27
Tomi - 27
Z - 18
Jake - 18
Morillo - 15

= 198

That leaves you with about 6 minutes left for the 9th man. As it stands, Brown or Zens would be the beneficiary of those minutes.
Click to expand...
I think we need as good a 9th man as we can get because we are more than likely going to have to deal with illness or injuries. Don't want to be in the same situation as we were this year when we had multiple players down and Brad felt he only had seven players that were usable.
 
#814      
ChiefGritty
NarrowJ said:
Lets see how it plays out.

Last year preseason AP Top 25:

1. Purdue - finished 6th in B1G
2. Houston - S16
3. Florida - R32
4. UConn - lost NC game
5. St John's - S16
6. Duke - E8
7. Michigan - NC
8. BYU - R64
9. Kentucky - R32
10. Texas Tech - R32

Only 2 or 3 of those teams did anything remotely noteworthy... and that is a preseason ranking from October (for reference, its currently May)
Click to expand...
7 of those 10 (all of the top 7) wound up in the top 10 of the final AP poll both pre and post tournament, and Texas Tech lost their superstar to injury with whom they were very much in that mix, so the only two there that you could say were wrong were Kentucky and BYU.

"New-build NIL superteams under shaky coaches" is definitely the common theme of the modern day overrated team.
 
#815      
NarrowJ
OB positive said:
I think we need as good a 9th man as we can get because we are more than likely going to have to deal with illness or injuries. Don't want to be in the same situation as we were this year when we had multiple players down and Brad felt he only had seven players that were usable.
Click to expand...

I don't know why this has to be explained a million times but this is going to be the case for pretty much any team dealing with [multiple] injuries. You can't get rotational quality players to come sign for lowball NIL and be expected to play zero minutes the whole season in the case that there are minimal injuries.

Duke went to a 6 man rotation when they had guys injured
Texas Tech went to a 6/7 man rotation when Toppin went down
Michigan went to a 7 man rotation with Tschetter playing spot minutes after the Cason injury
UConn was playing 7 guys when they had injuries
Iowa St played 7 after Jefferson got injured
Alabama played 7 after Holloway was arrested
Gonzaga played 7 after Braden Huff was injured
 
#816      
NarrowJ
ChiefGritty said:
7 of those 10 (all of the top 7) wound up in the top 10 of the final AP poll both pre and post tournament, and Texas Tech lost their superstar to injury with whom they were very much in that mix, so the only two there that you could say were wrong were Kentucky and BYU.

"New-build NIL superteams under shaky coaches" is definitely the common theme of the modern day overrated team.
Click to expand...

We can use different metrics and come up with slightly different results, but for the most part there isn't going to be much accuracy to be had trying to pinpoint a top 7 on May 22nd (was original point I wanted to make and then I think discussion got off track a bit).
 
#817      
ChiefGritty
NarrowJ said:
We can use different metrics and come up with slightly different results, but for the most part there isn't going to be much accuracy to be had trying to pinpoint a top 7 on May 22nd (was original point I wanted to make and then I think discussion got off track a bit).
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I guess I kind of disagree?

If the statement is that there's a sort of aristocracy coalescing at the top, I think I more or less agree with that. And I'm excited to be a part of it.
 
#818      
NarrowJ
ChiefGritty said:
I guess I kind of disagree?

If the statement is that there's a sort of aristocracy coalescing at the top, I think I more or less agree with that. And I'm excited to be a part of it.
Click to expand...

Just kind of?

Do we think it’s easier to identify a top 7 now or (for example) in January?
 
#819      
ChiefGritty
NarrowJ said:
Just kind of?

Do we think it’s easier to identify a top 7 now or (for example) in January?
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I mean both have their problems, right?

If we struggle with our ultra-hard non-conference schedule and are unranked on January 1, are we dead and buried? Or will what we knew in May reassert itself?

I dunno, I don't really think this is that important of a debate, other than just identifying us as one of a group of programs who are just in really durably great shape looking toward next year. If 2026 Purdue is your floor, that's a heck of a floor.
 
#820      
NarrowJ
ChiefGritty said:
I mean both have their problems, right?

If we struggle with our ultra-hard non-conference schedule and are unranked on January 1, are we dead and buried? Or will what we knew in May reassert itself?

I dunno, I don't really think this is that important of a debate, other than just identifying us as one of a group of programs who are just in really durably great shape looking toward next year. If 2026 Purdue is your floor, that's a heck of a floor.
Click to expand...

Original person I replied to said “definite top 7” which was what I had pushed back on. Now that the conversation has shifted to “is it as accurate as a preseason poll?” I can see my stance has certainly lost its luster.

Two of the F4 teams weren’t even in the top 12. Lack of tournament success is also evident within that preseason top 10.

So I was just saying it’s May and rosters aren’t even finalized. If Andrej does the unexpected and stays in the draft, are we still part of that top 7?

Anyway you’re right that it’s not a terribly important convo- just shooting the breeze on a Friday afternoon.
 
#821      
wc_illini
I don't know why this has to be explained a million times but this is going to be the case for pretty much any team dealing with [multiple] injuries. You can't get rotational quality players to come sign for lowball NIL and be expected to play zero minutes the whole season in the case that there are minimal injuries.

Duke went to a 6 man rotation when they had guys injured
Texas Tech went to a 6/7 man rotation when Toppin went down
Michigan went to a 7 man rotation with Tschetter playing spot minutes after the Cason injury
UConn was playing 7 guys when they had injuries
Iowa St played 7 after Jefferson got injured
Alabama played 7 after Holloway was arrested
Gonzaga played 7 after Braden Huff was injured
Click to expand...
It depends on where you draw the line when counting rotations...

Duke played 7 with 2 injured if you count Harris (10mpg in that stretch)
Michigan played 8 with 1 injured if you count Tschetter (12mpg in that stretch)
UConn got 12min combined from their 7th/8th guys with 2 injured

I didn't look at the rest on your list since they weren't in the same tier.
 
#822      
wc_illini
OB positive said:
I think we need as good a 9th man as we can get because we are more than likely going to have to deal with illness or injuries. Don't want to be in the same situation as we were this year when we had multiple players down and Brad felt he only had seven six players that were usable.
Click to expand...
FIFY
 
#824      
casemeau
Illinicpa14 said:
Would you take that year right now for us next year?
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Oh man, this is a hard question! Prior to last season, it would have been so much easier for me to say yes. But now that we’ve had another taste of that delicious week between the 2nd and 3rd weekend? I wouldn’t take it right now. I’d pass on the sure bet of 30 wins, B1G Tournament banner, historic assists season, and Elite Eight finish and try for that Final Four again!
 
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