NBA Draft
“Keaton Wagler, PG/SG, Illinois
Mock draft projection: No. 5 to LA Clippers
Top 100: No. 5
High end: Slower-paced Tyrese Haliburton
Low end: Andrew Nembhard with less defense
Wagler fits a valuable NBA archetype as a bigger on-ball guard who relies on quick decision-making and his 3-point shot to open the floor for teammates and find pockets of space to attack downhill. Though some scouts see shades of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander when Wagler creatively uses angles and change of pace going downhill, the more realistic comparison is Haliburton, whose unselfishness helps create a winning offensive environment for everyone around him.
Haliburton plays at a more up-tempo pace than Wagler has shown. Wagler's relatively small sample of high-level basketball leaves room for growth, and he thinks quickly enough to operate in a more wide-open style, despite being slower for a guard. There are broad enough similarities here that offer multiple pathways for NBA success.
Scout's take: Wagler's game is tough to fit. Haliburton was mentioned multiple times as a potential higher-end outcome because of his unselfishness, positional size, ability to play on and off the ball, and to excel without elite athleticism.
Wagler was also compared to Josh Giddey, who shares a lot of those qualities but at a lower level. Though Giddey has steadily improved as a shooter -- hitting 37% from 3 in his past two seasons with the Chicago Bulls -- Wagler will walk into the NBA as a better shooter immediately, which should help his ultimate upside.-- Bontemps”
Keaton's agility stats are in general about the same or better than Dylan Harper. Don't know if this tells anything.
Germanboxers
- Fort Wayne, IN
Which is really hard to believe just based on the eye test. Harper was much quicker and, pardon the expression, looked like an elite athlete.
I said it in the earlier thread, but I think Wagler's athleticism is under-rated. He shows excellent hand-eye coordination, shooting, and finding ways to avoid or absorb contact, which I think are often ignored in favor of explosiveness and leaping. Getting off your first step can be done with hesitation and other 'old man' skills, but getting or facilitating buckets is really what counts. Good to see he's consensus high lottery.
ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
Wagler is a guy with a 95mph fastball, but who only uses it as a change of pace from his bread and butter change-up.
As in baseball that's a player type who constantly makes great athletes look like fools.
It will be interesting to see though, BU was very happy to empower Wagler to ease the tempo of the game as he saw fit, it suited what we wanted to do last year. Not every NBA team will be the same.
I don't think Harper is an elite athlete. He is a good athlete who knows how to put the ball in the hole. This applies to Wagler, too, even though they play different style. The main advantage of Harper against Wagler is the wingspan but Wagler is an inch taller.
blackdog
- Champaign
I completely agree. There were actually some moments where he made things harder on himself because he would blow past his man then slow down to be able to play more deliberately. It worked some for tough finishes but he also gave opportunities for help to come. It also made him look slower than he is but he absolutely has the quickness and change of direction to get past people 1v1.
Some Wagler Intel at 5:45
Harper is just physically much bigger. 25 lbs. heavier, only 0.5 inches shorter barefoot at the combine. Their freshman year stats are very similar. Harper obviously took a lot more shots, but their effective FG is almost identical, as well as PER.
That's pretty unfortunate. Actually thought the pre draft workouts are where he'd make his mark.
Harper is physically superior(as we sit here today), which allowed him to be on the floor, playing critical minutes in critical games. The Spurs didn't lose anything defensively because of his ability to play physically. His body allows for it.
Keaton will be just fine offensively, but given his physical immaturity, I think he'll potentially get bullied on the defensive end. He's still just a kid. They'll get the right kind of weight on him which will allow him to hold up for 82 games and not get targeted on the defensive end. The NBA is an ISO and perimeter game, he'll get back down and the shooters are WAY too good to have to bring help on.
It's going to take time for Keaton to develop. If he does go to LA, I hope they have the patience to do it properly and he doesn't get buried on the bench. They weren't awful last year and got lucky with the bounce of the lottery balls. He wouldn't be going to a team that you know is awful and he'll get plenty of minutes on a team that is purely in development mode. With guys like Kawhi, Garland, Mathurin, etc who all think they're championship material and want the bulk of shots...where do the minutes come from and will the patience and development process be clearly understood.
I know it would cost him money, but falling to Dallas would be a perfect fit and a perfect situation.
Also worth considering that the teams and players often have diverging interests. Could well be the case that Wagler isn't working out because he has reason to believe that the #5 selection is his to lose, so better not to risk giving teams a reason not to take him with that pick. NBA teams use these workouts to get good and bad information, and if the available info on Wagler has him at #5, and there's no realistic chance at moving up to #4, it's not unreasonable that his agent would to keep the status quo.
Conversely, the teams putting out the word they want to see him workout more are just looking for an opportunity to spot red flags. If there's a reason he shouldn't be #5, they want to discover it before they have to draft him. And of course, it's in his interest that they don't.
Just one more thing, I don't think it makes sense that workouts would be Wagler's best asset. Such a huge part of his success and value is his game feel, his poise, his ability to make the right decision. I don't think you can recreate that in a reliable way in a workout scenario. If the choice for Wagler is that scouts watch him workout or scouts watch his game tape, coming up clutch in big moment after big moment, then I think he takes the latter.
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ChiefGritty
- Chicago, IL
No. To shamelessly toot my own horn, I think my best piece of punditry on this topic was that every part of the draft process that is not coached, competitive 5-on-5 basketball in pressurized environments with stakes is going to tend to reward players other than Wagler.
We have returned to the kind of analysis that put Nate Ament 257 spots higher than Wagler in the class recruiting rankings.
Which as I said is like 80% irrational. Not 100%
This has always been the challenge for Wagler. He's just not an overwhelming athlete. His gifts are tougher to measure, especially in an empty gym, or even a 3 on 3. The same junk that made him a #150ish recruit will follow him through this process. Some will just refuse to believe the results are repeatable at a higher level.
I still think that by next February, whomever takes him will know they got a baller. He may not figure out the NBA in 3 games, like he did the NCAA, but give him 3 months, and I bet he's earned a role.
LAC at 5 is where the real draft starts. If they have any concerns about Keaton, they may just pivot to Mara, rather than another smallish guard who doesn't really fit the roster. (Any GM, particularly in the West, has to be looking hard at Mara after watching the Spurs the last few weeks...)
If that happens he may drop a few spots. At that point, I'd rather see him drop past Brooklyn and Sacramento. The next several spots are much better destinations from an organizational perspective.
If he could somehow fall to Dallas, that would be PERFECT for him. He'd lose a few dollars on the front end, but he'll make it up in spades on the back end. That's a developing team and he can hop aboard and develop right with them. Playing in a market like Dallas would be ideal.This has always been the challenge for Wagler. He's just not an overwhelming athlete. His gifts are tougher to measure, especially in an empty gym, or even a 3 on 3. The same junk that made him a #150ish recruit will follow him through this process. Some will just refuse to believe the results are repeatable at a higher level.
I still think that by next February, whomever takes him will know they got a baller. He may not figure out the NBA in 3 games, like he did the NCAA, but give him 3 months, and I bet he's earned a role.
LAC at 5 is where the real draft starts. If they have any concerns about Keaton, they may just pivot to Mara, rather than another smallish guard who doesn't really fit the roster. (Any GM, particularly in the West, has to be looking hard at Mara after watching the Spurs the last few weeks...)
If that happens he may drop a few spots. At that point, I'd rather see him drop past Brooklyn and Sacramento. The next several spots are much better destinations from an organizational perspective.
If Clippers have concerns with Keaton, they move the pick IMO. They aren't a "Mara away" from being competitive in the West. Clippers also don't own their own picks until 2030. OKC owns the Clippers 2026 pick and right to swap with the Clippers 2027 pick.This has always been the challenge for Wagler. He's just not an overwhelming athlete. His gifts are tougher to measure, especially in an empty gym, or even a 3 on 3. The same junk that made him a #150ish recruit will follow him through this process. Some will just refuse to believe the results are repeatable at a higher level.
I still think that by next February, whomever takes him will know they got a baller. He may not figure out the NBA in 3 games, like he did the NCAA, but give him 3 months, and I bet he's earned a role.
LAC at 5 is where the real draft starts. If they have any concerns about Keaton, they may just pivot to Mara, rather than another smallish guard who doesn't really fit the roster. (Any GM, particularly in the West, has to be looking hard at Mara after watching the Spurs the last few weeks...)
If that happens he may drop a few spots. At that point, I'd rather see him drop past Brooklyn and Sacramento. The next several spots are much better destinations from an organizational perspective.
OKC has the ammo (picks including 12 & 17 in this loaded draft), plus the option to "give back" the Clips their 2027 swap, plus an absolute bevy of backcourt options. OKC can easily move up to 5 if they want.
This is the year for the Clippers to reload / blow it up IMO. Get a haul for #5 and some sort of compensation back for Kawhi while you still can. A trio of Garland-Wagler-35 year old Kawhi isn't a contender in 2026 in the West.