Illini Basketball 2026-2027

#301      
RockfordIllini
So I was already bullish on our chances next year and obviously I am even more so after Coleman’s FIBA performance. Obviously we need to see how the pieces fit/gel, but at least on paper Coleman looks to be a great complement to Vaaks. Vaaks looks like he needs the ball in his hands to be successful, and so if I was going to describe the ideal role to slot next to Vaaks, it would be a “move, cut, play with energy and hit open shots” type role, which is the role Coleman played to a T with FIBA.

I think we are going to be really really good next year.
 
#302      
HensonHall71
It will be great to have the whole team together over the summer practicing, we haven't had that in a long time. It can be the difference in how quickly the new pieces fit in and the team starts to play team defense
 
#303      
Combo
lstewart53x3 said:
Yes, last year it was 2. With Mirk at 29.5, but I guess that doesn’t count?

Anyhow, Tomi might not get there due to conditioning (25.4 last year). But with Vaaks sliding into the Wagler role and QC sliding into the Boswell role (they averaged 33.9 and 30.1), they’re both likely to hit 30 minutes per game, especially once real games begin.

That gives you Mirk, Vaaks, and Coleman at 30. Andrej hit 26.5 last year and said he wasn’t fully healthy until post season play. So he likely gets there as well.

Apologies for my exaggeration and your important correction. We’ll likely have 4 guys play 30 minutes per game, not 5. That leaves Tomi’s extra 5 minutes per game for the 6th, 7th, 8th, and 9th man to split up. Maybe the 9th man gets 1 minute per game after all.
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I'd think Vaaks, Coleman, and Andrej would play 30+ PPG or real close to it. And I think Mirk would also. The thing is last year you had four Bigs (Ben the 4th) to give you 80 min/game. Unless we find someone (maybe JJ if healthy) to give us some minutes at the 4 and/or 5, Tomi, Mirk, and Z are going to play a lot of minutes. As our roster stands now, we will occasionally need someone other than the big 3 to give us a few minutes. That's why I wouldn't rule out Zavier or Morillo playing a few minutes here and there at the 4 (and please don't say I'm penciling them in as 4s which I'm not)
 
#304      
CoalCity
HensonHall71 said:
It will be great to have the whole team together over the summer practicing, we haven't had that in a long time. It can be the difference in how quickly the new pieces fit in and the team starts to play team defense
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At least Mirk and Vaaks are playing for their national teams this summer so the whole team wont be there for the entire summer. How the dates coincidence with practices starting, im not sure, somebody else will have to fill in that blank.
 
#306      
ChiefGritty
NarrowJ said:
Was going to say that but I had exceeded my hot takes quota for the weekend.

(and I know you don't mean he is anywhere near as good; the similarity in play style and size/body type are there)
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Combo said:
That should go without saying. Though some people need you to qualify that he's a "poor man's" Luca Doncic.

Sort of like Mirk is a poor man's Jokic.
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Luka is actually very underrated in terms of the prospect he was, he was Euro LeBron and going #3 was one of the stupidest things that has ever happened in the NBA Draft, he was probably the most guaranteed All-Star to enter the draft in the modern era.

But after being mean about an over-hyped comparison yesterday, I want to stick up for our guy in this case. Vaaks is only approaching at 21 the level Luka reached at 18 against much tougher competition, but there really are similarities to their game and I absolutely believe Vaaks has the potential to become a good and impactful NBA player.

Though (and this is another comparison with Luka of course) he could give away all of the value of his genius for offense if he can't be competent at the other end.
 
#307      
Fly Illini Fly!
lstewart53x3 said:
Apologies for my exaggeration and your important correction. We’ll likely have 4 guys play 30 minutes per game, not 5. That leaves Tomi’s extra 5 minutes per game for the 6th, 7th, 8th, and 9th man to split up. Maybe the 9th man gets 1 minute per game after all.
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That’s still a huge exaggeration.

When’s the last time we’ve had FOUR guys play 30 min/game? I’m flipping thru ESPN, and can’t find one year that it’s happened.

…..

What would feed your point isn’t trying to argue how many guys play 30min. It’s how many do the starters (top 5) play combined?

Last season, if we add up the minutes of Keaton / Kylan / Tomi / Mirk / Stoj we were at 145.2.

Let’s just say it’s going to be 147 next season:

Vaaks — 32 (lead assist guy always our minutes leader; in this case tied with Andrej)
Andrej — 32
Mirk — 30
Tomi — 26
Coleman — 26

Just as a note, the 5thMan has never reached 26min/game in the Underwood era. But I just think Coleman / Tomi are too good this year.

Let’s say this is how the bench plays out:

Jake — 19 (matching last season)
Z — 18 (17 last year; think he’ll get some more of the non-Mirk-4 minutes, but Tomi should be more healthy, which would reduce his run at the 5)
Morillo — 14

That leaves, yes… 3 minutes for the 9th man assuming the minutes addition for our rotation guys is at exactly 200 (which, who knows… there can absolutely be some variation).

….

Just for my sake, by no means am I a dog in the #9thMan fight. You just said we’ll be playing 5 guys 30 minutes; and that’s legitimately never happened.

We’ll have an intense 3-person battle for that duty, and I’m confident at least ONE of the freshmen can emerge to fill that role. (and FWIW, Zens was one of the best HS players in the country last season)
 
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#312      
NarrowJ
PleaseMakeABowlGame said:
1. Duke
2. Florida
3. Uconn
4. Illinois
5. Michigan
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C.J. Moore, staff writer for The Athletic, has been a college basketball beat writer since 2011. He has worked at Bleacher Report as the site's national college basketball writer and also covered the sport for CBS and Basketball Prospectus.
 
#313      
battle
LvilleILL1 said:
Guys start to arrive or come back this week. Going to be a really fun summer and this has a chance to be an all time great season.
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this will be the first time we've had a full healthy team (in rotation) at the start of summer since many years ago
 
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#314      
Combo
battle said:
this will be the first time we've had a full healthy team (in rotation) at the start of summer since many years ago
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My bigger concern is that we stay relatively healthy throughout the season.
 
#316      
Illinirog1970
Combo said:
I'd think Vaaks, Coleman, and Andrej would play 30+ PPG or real close to it. And I think Mirk would also. The thing is last year you had four Bigs (Ben the 4th) to give you 80 min/game. Unless we find someone (maybe JJ if healthy) to give us some minutes at the 4 and/or 5, Tomi, Mirk, and Z are going to play a lot of minutes. As our roster stands now, we will occasionally need someone other than the big 3 to give us a few minutes. That's why I wouldn't rule out Zavier or Morillo playing a few minutes here and there at the 4 (and please don't say I'm penciling them in as 4s which I'm not)
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What's interesting is that even the 30+minutes per game players will likely miss whole games due to illness/injury and others will filter in to play in their stead. Or they might get in foul trouble and we will want good replacements to fill in for them.

Lincoln Williams is an oddity, because he's a back court/wing player and we seem to have a sufficiency of them, when including freshmen. Maybe the coaches feel that he may be better than some of those already signed.

In any case, WELCOME Lincoln!
 
#317      
PleaseMakeABowlGame
NarrowJ said:
C.J. Moore, staff writer for The Athletic, has been a college basketball beat writer since 2011. He has worked at Bleacher Report as the site's national college basketball writer and also covered the sport for CBS and Basketball Prospectus.
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What's the biggest hot take in his ranking?

- Illinois No. 1
- Iowa No. 14
- USC unranked
 
#320      
wc_illini
PleaseMakeABowlGame said:
What's the biggest hot take in his ranking?

- Illinois No. 1
- Iowa No. 14
- USC unranked
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Depends how you measure it. Compared to betting odds (without removing the vig)...

Illinois is #5 at ~6.4%. The #1 team is 14%
Iowa is #31 at ~1.4%. The #14 team is 3.5%
USC is #24 at 2.1%

So by ranking spots and ratio of odds (i.e. 3.5/1.4), Iowa is the hottest take. By difference in %, Illinois is the hottest take.

Here are his hottest takes in the top ten from his two years as an AP voter:

2025-26:
Moore's pre-season | AP pre-season | Final KenPom/Torvik
Louisville: #3 | #11 | #19/19
Michigan: #4 | #7 | #1/1
Florida: #6 | #3 | #6/4
Arizona: #7 | #13 | #2/2
St Johns: #14 | #5 | #13/10

2024-25:
Gonzaga: #2 | #6 | #8/8
Kansas: #4 | #1 | #24/21
UConn: #7 | #3 | #32/36
Tennessee: #8 | #12 | #5/6

I'd categorize these as:
Better than consensus and pretty close: St Johns and Tennessee
Better than consensus but not quite there: Michigan, Arizona
A bit better than consensus but still far off: Kansas, UConn
Toss-up: Florida
Wrong: Louisville, Gonzaga

The good news is that he was often better than the consensus. The bad news is that his most optimistic takes were often wrong.
 
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