Illinois Hoops Recruiting Thread

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#451      
PepeSilvia
RollChief said:
I mean, anything is arguable if you try hard enough...

I think it's fair to say that he had a comparable trajectory to Brad up until 2023, but has consistently and dramatically underperformed since then. I get what you're saying about unfortunate/unexpected events & injuries, but every team/roster faces some kind of adversity, and it speaks to the coach on whether they can navigate it (Underwood) or if the season implodes because of it (Musselman).

Perhaps one of the most objective ways to look at coaching performance is beginning team rank on KenPom (expectations backed up by empirical data) vs ending rank (actual observed results). I've put together a side-by-side to show Underwood's performance vs. Musselman's, which is below. Underwood has consistently outperformed expectations, ending the season with a worse KP rank only twice in the past 13 seasons. Comparing this to Musselman, he has only outperformed expectations 4 times in 11 seasons, and hasn't done it since 2021. He has only outperformed expectations with a high major 1 time.

In fairness, the one thing that I will give him is that up until 2023, he had a track record of outperforming expectations in the tournament (although he took Nevada to the S16, not the E8). With that said, I'd take the coach on the left 100 times out of 100 vs the coach on the right.

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The final four comment was because I think Nevada follows the same trajectory of Loyola if they win and also hands it to Bruce Webers Kansas State. The winner of that game was going to beat k-state.

Bravo on all the work though. The one thing I would mention though is that I think a program coming off a strong tournament run will tend to be higher rated the next season even if they lose talent.

Also, implode might be a strong work especially compared to 2024 Arkansas but 2 of the last 4 Illini seasons had incredibly disappointing finished down the stretch when you compare how they were playing in November and December.
 
#452      
lstewart53x3
PepeSilvia said:
The final four comment was because I think Nevada follows the same trajectory of Loyola if they win and also hands it to Bruce Webers Kansas State. The winner of that game was going to beat k-state.

Bravo on all the work though. The one thing I would mention though is that I think a program coming off a strong tournament run will tend to be higher rated the next season even if they lose talent.

Also, implode might be a strong work especially compared to 2024 Arkansas but 2 of the last 4 Illini seasons had incredibly disappointing finished down the stretch when you compare how they were playing in November and December.
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Here you go, man. I’m sure they’d love this conversation over here:

www.on3.com

USC Hoops - Forums

The place to discuss the men's and women's USC basketball programs
www.on3.com www.on3.com
 
#453      
ChiefGritty
jamarvelous31 said:
Do we? Seems like the influx of freshman this year is two top 40 dudes (which we will hopefully continue to do) and a bunch of lotto tickets.

I think the expectation is for the staff to be going hard for 3-4 transfers/euros a al Vaaks/Stoj/TSJ/Boz/KJ/Mayer(lol)/etc., particularly if this year goes to plan and we lose 5 of our top 7.
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By "we" I mean college basketball fans.

I trust BU to get good players via whatever methods are available to him, and I want him to do whatever it takes for Illinois to win. But the whole sport is better off if the focus is on high school recruits developing and having their careers at one program as the general national standard.
 
#454      
RollChief
PepeSilvia said:
I was on the train had plenty of time.

I get that a lot of sports is "what have you done lately" but it seems insane to me to act like Muss is a Jake Diebler or mid major coach that needs to prove he can win at the power conference level.

Real quick, no so fun thought experiment. How would people here view the state of the program and Brad over the last 4 years if the following 2 things happened:

1. 2024 - Terrence Shannon's injunction was denied and he is suspended for the entirety of the season.

2. 2026 - Illinois gets a tougher draw in the tournament. Say they get in the region with #2 seeded UConn and get bounced in the sweet 16 or even a round earlier to 11 seeded Texas.

Like you said a lot of people including me were plenty critical of Brad at the end of the the big10 tourney when Illinois looked like they were on the verge of being a other talented roster that fell apart at the end of the season.

I get it Muss hasn't been good the last 3 years but I'll pretty much always give the coach the benefit of the doubt in year 1 at a new school and then year 2 was derailed by injuries. I had the exact same defense about Fred Hoiberg a year ago when there was a lot of talk about him being on the hot seat.
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If my aunt had nuts she’d be my uncle… probably makes more sense to judge performance based on results rather than hypotheticals/what-ifs…
 
#455      
RollChief
PepeSilvia said:
The final four comment was because I think Nevada follows the same trajectory of Loyola if they win and also hands it to Bruce Webers Kansas State. The winner of that game was going to beat k-state.

Bravo on all the work though. The one thing I would mention though is that I think a program coming off a strong tournament run will tend to be higher rated the next season even if they lose talent.

Also, implode might be a strong work especially compared to 2024 Arkansas but 2 of the last 4 Illini seasons had incredibly disappointing finished down the stretch when you compare how they were playing in November and December.
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Thank you, but I still think “incredibly disappointing” is a massive stretch… BU’s last 4 finishes were 35, 10, 17 and 5, in order, vs Muss’ 22, 108, 57, and 77.

With regards to high rating bias in the next season based on tournament success, KenPom is probably the most accurate predictor of pre to post season ratings, and does a very good job at factoring out bias from tournament success.

(edit: fat fingered one of the numbers)
 
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#456      
hangdog
ChiefGritty said:
By "we" I mean college basketball fans.

I trust BU to get good players via whatever methods are available to him, and I want him to do whatever it takes for Illinois to win. But the whole sport is better off if the focus is on high school recruits developing and having their careers at one program as the general national standard.
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It tickles me when fans think the purpose of of a sport is for their entertainment value.
 
#457      
PepeSilvia
NarrowJ said:
I wouldn't even argue Muss is a poor coach, even after the past 3 seasons of not just mediocrity, but real actual terribleness. They've had some major injury to star players, CBM was probably not very coachable, a myriad of things that just haven't went well for him.

Just get a kick out of this board and the mental gymnastics done on here to prop up coaches such as Muss, Beard, Wade, etcetera.

All guys that are good coaches, but could you imagine if Brad was 51-49 with a goose egg for tourney appearances the past 3 seasons and also had only made it past the 1st round of the NCAA tournament 1x in his 11 years as a head coach: would he receive these 8 paragraph long excuse-ridden diatribes of justification for placing our program directly in the trash bin?

I mean, I know the answer: If Muss was doing that here, you'd all be losing your minds :)
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I think a lot of it comes down to how long you've been with a school. I'm always going to give a coach 3-4 years to settle in unless they are an absolute dumpster fire. Though I still think Michigan should have been more patient with Juwan Howard. I was never really critical of Brad in anyway until they lost to Loyola.

Obviously with the portal it's a lot easier to build a team in a year but I still think it's a tough task to do so in one off-season when you're building an entirely new roster. Sometimes the pieces just don't fit together like you think(one reason I'm more lukewarm on Louisville this coming year).

I don't have a super high opinion of Wade so can't really prop him up. Personal issues aside, Beard I still think has been pretty good everywhere he's been as far as basketball. Yeah they were bad last year but I think that kind of variance is somewhat normal for programs without top end resources. Kind of like Hoiberg at Nebraska, I think he's a very good coach but I think you will see down seasons simply because Nebraska doesn't have the resources that a lot of other Big10 teams have.
 
#458      
ChiefGritty
PepeSilvia said:
Though I still think Michigan should have been more patient with Juwan Howard.
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A+ hot take.

PepeSilvia said:
Yeah they were bad last year but I think that kind of variance is somewhat normal for programs without top end resources. Kind of like Hoiberg at Nebraska, I think he's a very good coach but I think you will see down seasons simply because Nebraska doesn't have the resources that a lot of other Big10 teams have.
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That's the thing about Muss though right? As the sport has gotten more NIL focused both he and BU have had the chance to work with big time resources, and BU's results have gotten better while Muss' have gotten worse.
 
#459      
I-L-L 1318
WyattEarp said:
He needs to prove he can win- AGAIN.
He more than likely will too…at some point.

He’s a brilliant X’s and O’s guy. (Great defensive mind especially) He’s kinda like if Painter/Otz were a short-stack narcissist with ADHD.

BUT that seat is getting pretty warm now.
If he has another underperforming season & these expensive roster(s) he’s prolly done like dinner at USC.

Yet, if he figures out chemistry and can maintain a healthy locker room. It might end up being a Hoiberg-like arc. But I don’t think he’s figured out the portal like Pitino has. (If he’s gonna keep trying to build rosters like that.)
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Yes should have said needs to prove he can win in the B1G
 
#460      
Illiniguy13
PepeSilvia said:
I think a lot of it comes down to how long you've been with a school. I'm always going to give a coach 3-4 years to settle in unless they are an absolute dumpster fire. Though I still think Michigan should have been more patient with Juwan Howard. I was never really critical of Brad in anyway until they lost to Loyola.

Obviously with the portal it's a lot easier to build a team in a year but I still think it's a tough task to do so in one off-season when you're building an entirely new roster. Sometimes the pieces just don't fit together like you think(one reason I'm more lukewarm on Louisville this coming year).

I don't have a super high opinion of Wade so can't really prop him up. Personal issues aside, Beard I still think has been pretty good everywhere he's been as far as basketball. Yeah they were bad last year but I think that kind of variance is somewhat normal for programs without top end resources. Kind of like Hoiberg at Nebraska, I think he's a very good coach but I think you will see down seasons simply because Nebraska doesn't have the resources that a lot of other Big10 teams have.
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Was an 8 win season in 2024 not enough? 🤣 Please tell me this is in jest
 
#461      
Combo
Illiniguy13 said:
Was an 8 win season in 2024 not enough? 🤣 Please tell me this is in jest
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I question the sanity of the OG (or was it sarcasm?). He was one of the worst coaches I've ever seen. Getting rid of him and getting Dusty was as dramatic a swing in coaching acumen as I can recall in almost 50 years of following college ball.

On 2nd thought, maybe he was thinking form the POV of an opposing fan?
 
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#462      
Illiniguy13
Combo said:
I question the sanity of the OG (or being it was sarcasm?). He was one of the worst coaches I've ever seen. Getting rid of him and getting Dusty was as much a swing in coaching acumen as I can recall in almost 50 years of following college ball.
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100%. The guy was an absolute embarrassment. Come to think of it, he's in the same bucket as the fella in my avatar 🍝
 
#463      
RollChief
Combo said:
I question the sanity of the OG (or was it sarcasm?). He was one of the worst coaches I've ever seen. Getting rid of him and getting Dusty was as dramatic a swing in coaching acumen as I can recall in almost 50 years of following college ball.

On 2nd thought, maybe he was thinking form the POV of an opposing fan?
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I miss Juwan... He was a man of action...

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#468      
thefalcon5
HereSoIDontGetFined said:
Was this really that weak of a 2026 class in Illinois if the #1 player in the state was barely top 200?
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Sadly, it’s the (no pun intended) state of HS basketball in Illinois. Top guys are leaving for prep schools and by top guys I mean something like 75% of 4/5 stars. Maybe higher.

It’s a real shame, the CPS has produce some of the world’s finest basketball players. Heck even downstate had its heyday.

UIUC finally being good yet not having good players to recruit in state is the kind of irony I live for. The good news is it doesn’t matter a lick in today’s NCAA.
 
#469      
EmeraldCityIllini
PepeSilvia said:
Also, implode might be a strong work especially compared to 2024 Arkansas but 2 of the last 4 Illini seasons had incredibly disappointing finished down the stretch when you compare how they were playing in November and December.
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One of those “incredibly disappointing results” was a 6 seed and ncaa tournament win - which would be musselmans best result at USC.

I’m not picking on anyone, it’s just hoops opinions. But the defense for musselman compared to what the knives come out for underwood on is exactly the point of some passionate underwood defenses during the season
 
#470      
Combo
EmeraldCityIllini said:
One of those “incredibly disappointing results” was a 6 seed and ncaa tournament win - which would be musselmans best result at USC.

I’m not picking on anyone, it’s just hoops opinions. But the defense for musselman compared to what the knives come out for underwood on is exactly the point of some passionate underwood defenses during the season
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Fans are usually that way about their team's own coach. They notice instances where the coach makes wrongs decision because they are so focused on their team. And they don't notice nearly as much when other teams' coaches screw up.

And that's the thing - there is no perfect coach out there. They all screw up now and then.
 
#471      
EmeraldCityIllini
Combo said:
Fans are usually that way about their team's own coach. They notice instances where the coach makes wrongs decision because they are so focused on their team. And they don't notice nearly as much when other teams' coaches screw up.

And that's the thing - there is no perfect coach out there. They all screw up now and then.
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I agree with that - no doubt. And no coach is above criticism.

My point, is more related to when the board throws out a ton of “unacceptables” or “hot seat” or “move on” talk, and then conversely we hear a bunch of excuses for mussellman, miller, etc.
 
#472      
NarrowJ
Combo said:
Fans are usually that way about their team's own coach. They notice instances where the coach makes wrongs decision because they are so focused on their team. And they don't notice nearly as much when other teams' coaches screw up.

And that's the thing - there is no perfect coach out there. They all screw up now and then.
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I think we know why, just discussing how it doesn't make any sense

The level of cognitive dissonance it takes to go "Yeah Brad really hasn't accomplished much here, we need to bring in a Musselman/Wade/Beard" is both interesting and hilarious
 
#475      
SescIllini
Lincoln William's reminds me of Latrell Sprewell, haven't researched it. But tatis what comes to mind.
 
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