Illini Basketball 2026-2027

#427      
we shouldn't be ranked ahead of them preseason, assuming the quality of team is close, until we beat them.

It’s just the opposite of what I’ve seen so far in various rankings that have come out- Illinois and UConn are both at or near the top, close to one another in the rankings, yet with Illinois typically ahead of them.
 
#429      
I don't think the OP claimed we can never beat UCONN.

It's that we shouldn't be ranked ahead of them preseason, assuming the quality of team is close, until we beat them.
Two things:

1. Last season’s results have no bearing on next season’s pre-season rankings. Texas finished last year at #38 in Torvik but they’re preseason #14 in Torvik. Because some teams lose pieces, while other teams retain and add pieces.

2. Head to head results don’t always make one team better than another. Match ups and small sample sizes impact that. Wisconsin had the same record against us last year as UConn. Does that mean Wisconsin should be ranked ahead of us pre-season next year too?
 
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#430      
2. Head to head results don’t always make one team better than another. Match ups and small sample sizes impact that. Wisconsin had the same record against us last year as UConn. Does that mean Wisconsin should be ranked ahead of us pre-season next year too?
Which is why I said "assuming the quality of team is close."

It's like the ND vs MIAMI argument for the last CFP spot. When teams are in super close proximity, it should be a determining factor.

.....

I do think #1 is a fair argument; however, both teams lost, retained, and added pieces. It all comes out to a very close call between the two squads (as far as preseason).
 
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#433      
I can see Coleman and Vaacks doing pretty close to 64m between them. Can Andrej play SG for 5 minutes, giving Jake 5 more minutes at SF?
I don't. Max I see is 60.

Coleman 28; Vaaks 32.

For whatever reason people love inflating our player's minutes (just to realize there's only so many to distribute in the first place).
 
#438      
Two things:

1. Last season’s results have no bearing on next season’s pre-season rankings. Texas finished last year at #38 in Torvik but they’re preseason #14 in Torvik. Because some teams lose pieces, while other teams retain and add pieces.

2. Head to head results don’t always make one team better than another. Match ups and small sample sizes impact that. Wisconsin had the same record against us last year as UConn. Does that mean Wisconsin should be ranked ahead of us pre-season next year too?
I agree. UConn was better than us last year (and almost every year since late 90s). It's irrelevant for upcoming season. Like us and Michigan. Up to last year we had a pretty long winning streak against them - Brad owned them. That didn't matter for last season. They beat us and they were clearly the better team.

That's not saying UConn won't be good next year. I think they'll be right around our range. That is, somewhere between 3 and 6 (after FL and Duke). We can ceretainly beat them.
 
#440      
I agree. UConn was better than us last year (and almost every year since late 90s). It's irrelevant for upcoming season.
I wouldn't say that. There's a good argument that we have actually been better than UConn for the majority of seasons this millennium.

It's just that somehow half the time UConn has a good team, they win a National Championship or go to a Final Four.

Doesn't change your point though that it's not relevant for the upcoming season.
 
#441      
No question
I mean, nobody calls the Flyin' Illini "the 1988 Team" or the Deron-Dee-Luther FF team as the "2004 team". They are named for the year they went to the FF. Same with E8 teams, or even S16 teams. And graduating classes are named for the year they finish, not start...
 
#442      
Fixed
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#443      
I wouldn't say that. There's a good argument that we have actually been better than UConn for the majority of seasons this millennium.

It's just that somehow half the time UConn has a good team, they win a National Championship or go to a Final Four.

Doesn't change your point though that it's not relevant for the upcoming season.
That's why I said "almost every year." 2005 obviously and a few other years are exceptions. We had a painful decade in there where we flat out sucked.

You do make a good point about UConn. When they get to the FF, they usually win it all, which I struggle to figure out. Not sure, but I think they're 6 of 7 in Finals games since they started their ridiculous run in the late 90s.
 
#444      
Two things:

1. Last season’s results have no bearing on next season’s pre-season rankings. Texas finished last year at #38 in Torvik but they’re preseason #14 in Torvik. Because some teams lose pieces, while other teams retain and add pieces.

2. Head to head results don’t always make one team better than another. Match ups and small sample sizes impact that. Wisconsin had the same record against us last year as UConn. Does that mean Wisconsin should be ranked ahead of us pre-season next year too?
Torvik does use prior seasons in various ways in his pre-season rankings (mostly defense though):

(from this link)
- He used to use school historical rating for both offense and defense, but I think that's just for defense now
- He also uses a program "momentum" metric (whether a program is rising or falling) for both offense (still) and defense
- He also makes adjustments for coaches in their 3rd season or less at a school

Separate from any of that, I'm pretty sure none of Tovik/KenPom/EvanMiya have any adjustment for coaches' NCAAT over/under-performance, and I agree with that since sample sizes are way too small for 99% of coaches. But if there's a 1%, it's Hurley.
 
#445      
That's why I said "almost every year." 2005 obviously and a few other years are exceptions. We had a painful decade in there where we flat out sucked.

You do make a good point about UConn. When they get to the FF, they usually win it all, which I struggle to figure out. Not sure, but I think they're 6 of 7 in Finals games since they started their ridiculous run in the late 90s.

Yes, 6-0 in NC games until last year... wild

All of that big time success with 9 missed tournaments sandwiched in doesn't seem real
 
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#446      
Yes, 6-0 in NC games until last year... wild

All of that big time success with 9 missed tournaments sandwiched in doesn't seem real
The 9 misses are what gets forgotten about with UConn. They had some bad years like us. And if you were to just go year by year over the last 30 years, you'd probably say Illinois had the better season around half the time.

But this is the crazy part. By my count, since 1999, they have finished in the top 25 15 times. 8 of those 15 times ended in a Final Four or a Natty. 53% of their "good" seasons have ended in the Final Four.

Compare that to us in the same time frame. 12 seasons finishing in the top 25 with 2 Final Fours. 17%

Or even compare it to a blue blood like Kansas. 27 seasons finishing in the top 25 with 6 Final Fours. 22%

It just makes no sense.

Anyway, hopefully we can get some much needed revenge this year.
 
#447      
For what it's worth, with the dust settling on the NBA draft and transfer portal etc., The Illini have settled in at number three in Kalshi over the past week.

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#449      
If Illinois were to have celebrity courtside seats, who would be the five biggest non-athletes Illini fan stars to have a spot? I’m guessing they’d be:

1. Nick Offerman
2. Alan Ruck
3. Betsy Brandt
4. Ang Lee
5. Andy Richter

Top 5 Athlete stars

1. Deron Williams
2. Kendall Gill
3. Ayo
4. TSJ
5. Dee Brown

Non-Hollywood, non-athletes

1. Shad Khan
2. Larry Gies

Thoughts? Disputes?
 
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